Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.904 | EURUSD 1.12336 | AUDUSD 0.69218 | NZDUSD 0.6433 | USDCAD 1.3495 | USDCHF 0.96118 | GBPUSD 1.25754 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12387 | 1.12114
USDJPY 109.057 | 108.805
GBPUSD 1.25830 | 1.25294
USDCHF 0.96225 | 0.96101
AUDUSD 0.69323 | 0.68921
NZDUSD 0.64300 | 0.64055
USDCAD 1.35181 | 1.34914
EURCHF 1.07961 | 1.07815
EURGBP 0.89528 | 0.89295
EURJPY 122.497 | 122.060
For Today
- GBP: All change, opening on a wild spike through towards the 1.2590 area the market held just below the 1.2580 area through into the Tokyo session before supply for the fix sent the market lower and the Cable quickly dipped back to the 1.2530 level to range around the 1.2540 area through to the grey hour in a long quiet range, Topside offers through the 1.2640 level with a break through the 1.2650 area likely to see weak stops appearing and the market possibly opening to a quick test to the 1.2700 before stronger offers are likely to appear, Downside bids likely to stepped up to the 1.2450-00 areas however, they are likely for the moment to be weak and stops through the 1.2400 area to open a deeper move with very little to suggest strong bids until on the 1.22 handle.
- JPY: Quiet opening around the 108.90 level and then pushing through into the Tokyo session testing above the 109.05 area before fixing supply sent the market back to the 108.80 area to recover and range around the opening level to the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be strong through to the 109.20-30 area with weak stops likely around the level however, congestion likely to soak up the run and the market possibly struggling with the 109.30-60 area with no relief through the 109.80 area and likely stronger offers again joined by sentimental option players. Downside bids light through the 108.00 level and weak stops on a dip through the 107.80 area opens up a push back to the 107.50 level and congestion before stronger bids into the 107.20 level.
- AUD: Opening just off the highs the market held around the 0.6920 level through into the Tokyo session and steadily rose through to look just above the 0.6930 area before dropping back with fix selling of the AUDJPY for the weekend, testing through to the 0.6895 area only to range around the level through into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 0.6980 level through to the 0.7020 area with possibly strong stops appearing on a push through the level to quickly target the 0.7050 area with weaker offers on moves towards the 71 cent level. Downside bids light through to the 0.6880 area and weak stops appearing and limited support until 0.6820 however, any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move.
- EUR: A steady drift from the opening highs around the 1.1235 area pushing into the Tokyo session around the 1.1230 level before running into the Fix slipping steadily through to the 1.1210 area for the run into the grey hour, Topside to push through to the 1.1200 level a pause then another run leading into the grey hour pushing to the 1.1210 area and holding around the 1.1205 level, Topside offers remain through to the 1.1240 area with possible weak stops on a push through the level, limited offers through the 1.1250 sentimental level before stronger offers start to appear on any move through to the 1.1280 area and beyond. Downside bids light through to the 1.1160 level with possible bids appearing in the area however, a break below the 1.1140 level leaves the 1.1100 level vulnerable and weak stops below for a quick run lower.
Overnight News
GBP:
BoE says lenders must prepare for no deal Brexit – BBG
(Old news) Johnson tells China we shall not walk away from Hong Kong
AUD:
A record-breaking economic boom is about to go bust – DJ
EUR:
ECB seen with only one choice tomorrow to avoid market rout – BBG
Lagarde still bears the mantle of lone economic saviour – for now – Politico EU
EUR/CNY:
Xi says China ready to work with Germany, EU to create more global certainty – Xinhua
CNY/USD:
China’s currency could trigger a new flashpoint in the growing cold war with the US – SYH
CNY:
China to allow more foreign airlines to resume inbound flights – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -17.7% | C -17.9% | P 8.5%
AUD Trade Balance (APR) A 8.8b | C 7.5b | P 10.602b
0630 CHF CPI MoM (MAY) A | C 0.1% | P -0.4%
0730 EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI A | P 31.9
0830 GBP Construction PMI (MAY) A | C 29.7 | P 8.2
0900 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales MoM (APR) A | C -15.0% | P -11.2%
1145 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JUN) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1145 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A | P 0.25%
1145 EUR ECB Monetary policy Statement
1145 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision A | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,800k | P 2,123k
1230 USD Non-farm productivity QoQ (Q1) A | C -2.7% | P -2.5%
1230 USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q1) A | C 5.0% | P 4.8%
1230 USD Trade Balance (APR) A | C -49.0b | P -44.4b
1230 CAD Trade Balance (APR) A | -2.36b | P -1.41b
1230 EUR ECB Press Conference
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet opening saw the market moving through into the Tokyo session and quickly pushing to the 1.2580 level from the 1.2550 area pausing then running again to push above 1.2610 area before dropping quickly back to the 1.2570 level, while there was some movement through the session after that it was generally contained within the limits already set with the market ranging around the 1.2580 area with a minor dip to the 1.2550 area for the NYK session before making the high late in the session on a push through the 1.2610 level before drifting to the close.
- JPY: Limited range for the USDJPY for the day however, the USDJPY still sees new recent highs on a push late in the session for the 109.00 level, Early buying into the Tokyo session saw the market head to the 108.80 level before falling back and holding through the midsession in Tokyo around the 108.50 level, the move through into the London session saw the highs tested again however, it was only after NYK opened did we see the USDJPY pushing for the highs and holding all the way through to the close in a long run holding the 108.95.
- AUD: A quiet early session saw a quick rally through into the Tokyo session pushing off the early lows around the 0.6880 area and testing quickly through to the 0.6975 before falling back and then holding a tight range around the 0.6930 level through to the London session, London sold the market back to the opening level before dipping again for the NYK session testing to the lows of the day around the 0.6860 area before slowly recovering to test the opening level again and then pushing steadily in a tight channel back to the 0.6950 level before drifting from the London close to the NYK close.
- EUR: Rising slowly through into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 1.1170 area, Tokyo saw the market move up 15 pips in a short period only to struggle before running through to the 1.1200 over the next couple of hours, a slow drift through midsession before taking a second run through the 1.1200 level and this time holding above the level through into the London opening and testing lightly to the 1.1220-25 areas and struggling, the move through to the NYK session saw the market drifting with the focus of the worlds press on the US and not paying attention to much else, the market started running from the US numbers and Euro touched the 1.1250 level before slipping back a little before running again and unable to push the 1.1260 area out of the way slipping back for the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Services PMI (MAY) A 26.5 | C 25.3 | P 21.5
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Bullock Speaks
AUD Building Approvals MoM (APR) A -1.8% | C -15.0% | P 4%
AUD GDP QoQ (Q1) A -0.3% | C -0.3% | P 0.5%
AUD GDP YoY (Q1) A 1.4% | C 1.4% | P 2.2%
CNY Caixin Services PMI (MAY) A 55.0 | P 44.4
CHF GDP QoQ (Q1) A -2.6% | C -2.0% | P 0.3%
CHF GDP YoY (Q1) A -1.3% | C -0.9% | P 1.5% | R 1.6%
EUR Spanish Services PMI (MAY) A 27.9 | C 25.0 | P 7.1
EUR Italian Services PMI (MAY) A 28.9 | C 26.5 | P 10.8
EUR French Services PMI (MAY) A 31.1 | C 29.4 | P 10.2
EUR German Services PMI (MAY) A 32.6 | C 31.4 | P 16.2
EUR German Unemployment Change (MAY) A 238k | C 200k | P 373k | R 372k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (MAY) A 6.3% | 6.2% | P 5.8%
EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (MAY A 31.9 | C 30.5 | P 13.6
EUR Eurozone Services PMI (MAY) A 30.5 | C 28.7 | P 12
GBP Composite PMI (MAY) A 30.0 | C 28.9 | P 13.8
GBP Services PMI (MAY) A 29.0 | C 28.0 | P 13.4
EUR Unemployment Rate A 7.3% | C 8.2% | P 7.4% | R 7.1%
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment change (MAY) A -2,700k | C -9000k | P -20,238k | R 19,557k
CAD Labour Productivity QoQ (Q1) A 3.4% | C 1.2% | P -0.1%
USD Markit Composite PMI (MAY) A 37.0 | C 36.4 | P 27.0
USD Services PMI (MAY) A 37.5 | C 36.9 | P 26.7
USD Factory Orders MoM (APR) A -13.0% | C -14.0% | P -10.4% | R -11.0%
USD Non-Manufacturing Employment A 31.8 | P 30.0
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 45.4 | C 44.0 | P 41.8
CAD BoC Rate Statement
CAD BoC Interest rate decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -2,077m | C 3.038m | P 7.928m
Best Regards
Andy
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