Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.158 | EURUSD 1.13365 | AUDUSD 0.69437 | NZDUSD 0.6461 | USDCAD 1.3499 | USDCHF 0.95555 | GBPUSD 1.25951 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13551 | 1.13262
USDJPY 109.237 | 109.045
GBPUSD 1.26196 | 1.25834
USDCHF 0.95614 | 0.95507
AUDUSD 0.69790 | 0.69308
NZDUSD 0.64928 | 0.64566
USDCAD 1.35129 | 1.3484
EURCHF 1.08474 | 1.08254
EURGBP 0.90045 | 0.89908
EURJPY 123.921 | 123.544
For Today
- GBP: A reasonably tight range with the market opening around the 1.2600 level and after an initial test to the 1.2590 level pushed through into the Tokyo session trading above the 1.2610 level before dipping on light fix supply and the market extending down through the 1.2590 a little only to recover steadily through to the opening level and pushing to the highs for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2640 level with a break through the 1.2650 area likely to see weak stops appearing and the market possibly opening to a quick test to the 1.2700 before stronger offers are likely to appear, Downside bids likely to stepped up to the 1.2450-00 areas however, they are likely for the moment to be weak and stops through the 1.2400 area to open a deeper move with very little to suggest strong bids until on the 1.22 handle.
- JPY: Tight Friday saw the market opening around the 109.15 level and that remained the centre point through the session with the market making the high in early Tokyo pushing lightly through the 109.20 level then dipping through to the 109.05 area before holding steady around the 109.10 area through the midsession period before making another push for the highs late in the session with very little to help grind through those topside offers before the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be strong through to the 109.20-30 area with weak stops likely around the level however, congestion likely to soak up the run and the market possibly struggling with the 109.30-60 area with no relief through the 109.80 area and likely stronger offers again joined by sentimental option players. Downside bids light through the 108.00 level and weak stops on a dip through the 107.80 area opens up a push back to the 107.50 level and congestion before stronger bids into the 107.20 level.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6940 area the market ranged around the 0.6945 area all the way through to the end of the session with the range contained in the 0.6930-55 area until the final hour, rising steadily from the 0.6950 level and pushing through to 0.6975 before stalling for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 0.6980 level through to the 0.7020 area with possibly strong stops appearing on a push through the level to quickly target the 0.7050 area with weaker offers on moves towards the 71 cent level. Downside bids light through to the 0.6880 area and weak stops appearing and limited support until 0.6820 however, any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move.
- EUR: Japanese reinvestment in the Euro? The yield can’t be that much better than Japan unless they were short an awful lot? Just a thought, opening around the 1.1335 level the market drifted through to late in the session to test the 1.1325 area and then gradually increase its incline through to the 1.1355 level into the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
OIL:
Opec+ set to extend cuts after breakthrough with Iraq
JPY:
Abe’s approval rating sinks on rising fears of virus second wave
EUR:
EU considers broadening scrutiny of foreign investments
ECB unveils bigger than expected increase in crisis bond buying
USD:
US Jobless claims persist even as Americans return to work
HKD/GBP:
HSBC, StanChart defy UK to endorse Hong Kong security law
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Household Spending MoM (APR) A -6.2% | C -8.7% | P -4.0%
JPY Household Spending YoY (APR) A -11.1 | C -15.4% | P -6.0%
0600 EUR German Factory Orders MoM (APR) A | C -19.7% | P -15.6%
0730 GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (MAY) A | C -0.7% | P -0.9%
0730 GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY A | P 2.7%
1230 USD Average hourly Earnings MoM (MAY) A | C 1.0% | P 4.7%
1230 USD Average hourly Earnings YoY (MAY) A | C 8.5% | P 7.9%
1230 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) A | C -8,000k | P -20.537k
1230 USD Participation Rate (MAY) A | P 60.2%
1230 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) A | C -7.500k | P -19.557k
1230 USD Unemployment Rate (MAY) A | C 19.8% | P 14.7%
1230 CAD Employment Change (MAY) A | C -500.0k | P 1,993.8k
1230 CAD Unemployment Rate (MAY) A | C 15.0% | P 13.0%
1400 CAD Ivey PMI (MAY) A | P 22.8
1700 USD US Baker Total Rig Count A | P 301
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening with a spike the market dropped back from the 1.2585 area to hold the 1.2565 level through into the Tokyo session before strong selling moved through the market to sent the Cable quickly through to the 1.2530 level from the initial fixing supply, from there through to London the market remained in a very tight range around the 1.2535 level. Early London slowly sold the market too in a weak test of the 1.2500 level however, with very little in the market the Cable started to recover initially through to the 1.2535 level then breaking through and triggering some weak shorts on a snap to the opening levels, a little choppy for the move through to the NYK session saw the market strongly running through to the 1.2600 level, a small spike through to the 1.2625 area cleared a few weak stops saw the market push for the highs 3 times before unable to truly break the 1.2630 level tell back to just below the figure for the move to the close.
- JPY: Back into the zero direction mode again with the market opening around the 108.90 level rising through the 109.00 only by a pip or two before drifting through to test the 108.80 level for the Tokyo fix, the market recovered and held the opening level midsession before renewing its challenge to the topside pushing slowly above the 109.00 level again then successively extending the highs by small amounts but unable to push the 109.20 area, the move through early London saw steady selling nothing large but constant through to the 108.80 level and the NYK session triggering some weak stops on a break lower through to just above the 108.60 level and a slow recovery to the 108.80 level again and then quickly testing above the 109 level, with the London session closed the market started another run through to test above the 109.00 level this time extending to the 109.20 level before dipping back for the last 30mis and the close.
- AUD: A very quiet Asian session, with the market opening around the 0.6920 level and rising just above the level through into the Tokyo session before fix selling took the market through to just above the 0.6890 level and a slow range around the 0.6895 area through to the London session, London saw the market rising to the 0.6910 level before dipping through in early morning trading to hold around the 0.6885 level with a few minor attempts to test the 0.6880 level, the Opening in NYK saw the market initially spike to the 0.6930 level drop back to the 0.6890 area and then run a second time to become mired in congestion around the 0.6920 levels and time for those that missed the opportunity to sell, of course the market didn’t back away and the sellers were caught short and a squeeze higher through to the 0.6985 level occurred dipping back to the 0.6950 area and then ranging just below the level through to the close.
- EUR: A slow drift through the Asian session with really no high points, opening just below the 1.1235 level the market slipped into the Tokyo session on the 1.1230 level the fix supply saw a further move lower through to just before the NYK opening and the ECB announcement testing just through the 1.1200 level, first off no change in the interest rate however a large boost in the way of QE saw the market initially test quickly to the 1.1270 level fall back then start to rally on the release of details of bond buying to support the economy of the block. Testing to the 1.1360 level the market dipped back into the London close before steadily pushing at the highs again and then finishing just off those highs.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -17.7% | C -17.9% | P 8.5%
AUD Trade Balance (APR) A 8.8b | C 7.5b | P 10.602b
CHF CPI MoM (MAY) A 0.0% | C 0.1% | P -0.4%
EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI A 40.1 | P 31.9
GBP Construction PMI (MAY) A 28.9 | C 29.7 | P 8.2
EUR Eurozone Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -11.7% | C -15.0% | P -11.2% | R -11.1%
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JUN) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR ECB Monetary policy Statement
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 1877k | C 1,800k | P 2,123k | R 2,126k
USD Non-farm productivity QoQ (Q1) A -0.9% | C -2.7% | P -2.5% | R 1.2%
USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q1) A 5.1% | C 5.0% | P 4.8%
USD Trade Balance (APR) A -49.4b | C -49.0b | P -44.4b | R -42.3b
CAD Trade Balance (APR) A -3.25b | -2.36b | P -1.41b | R -1.53b
EUR ECB Press Conference
Best Regards
Andy
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