Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.587 | EURUSD 1.12907 | AUDUSD 0.69689 | NZDUSD 0.65074 | USDCAD 1.34233 | USDCHF 0.96233 | GBPUSD 1.26675 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13191 | 1.12794
USDJPY 109.692 | 109.384
GBPUSD 1.27284 | 1.2663
USDCHF 0.96323 | 0.96145
AUDUSD 0.70028 | 0.69646
NZDUSD 0.65328 | 0.65045
USDCAD 1.34344 | 1.33957
EURCHF 1.08795 | 1.08492
EURGBP 0.89120 | 0.88846
EURJPY 124.120 | 123.506
For Today
- GBP: Pre market trading suggested a slightly stronger USD however, when the market opened the opposite was the case with Cable opening around the 1.2680 level and steadily moving through into the Tokyo session pressing through to match the highs from Friday around the 1.2710 area before slipping a little through to range around the 1.2700 level through to the grey hour, light congestion to the topside on the move through to the 1.2750 area where offers are likely to be a little thicker and then stronger offer into the 1.2800 level with weak stops appearing and if Futures positioning has any bearing the possible of a short squeeze higher as stops are triggered however, there is a possibility of a more balanced market and limited potential above the 1.2800 area for movement in the short term. Downside bids creeping high with light bids through the 1.2600 and weak stops opening a quick test back to the 1.2500 level before stronger bids start to appear through that level and into the 1.2450 area.
- JPY: Knee jerk reaction on Friday saw the market opening around the Close on Friday and then holding quietly through into the Tokyo session before dipping away on supply for the fix and JPY buyers taking the USDJPY down to the 109.40 level before holding quietly around the 109.50 areas to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 109.80 level and likely to increase through the sentimental 110.00 area and stronger congestion likely to continue through the level possibly balancing stops through the 110.20 area and continuing through to the 110.50 area before becoming a little more patch too the 110.80 levels and again stronger offers, Downside bids light through the 108.00 level and weak stops on a dip through the 107.80 area opens up a push back to the 107.50 level and congestion before stronger bids into the 107.20 level.
- AUD: Opening unchanged and rising through to the 0.7000 into the Tokyo session with a background of Sydney close for the Queens Birthday, the market drifted just as easily off the level to settle down around the opening 0.6970 level for the run to London, Topside offers into the 0.6980 level through to the 0.7020 area with possibly strong stops appearing on a push through the level to quickly target the 0.7050 area with weaker offers on moves towards the 71 cent level. Downside bids light through to the 0.6880 area and weak stops appearing and limited support until 0.6820 however, any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1300 area and dipping in the early part of the session through towards the 1.1285 area before rising through to the 1.1320 level in a limited move before drifting back to hold around the 1.1290 level into the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
EUR:
Germans fear the ECB is following the Weimar Reichsbank into an inflation trap – TEL
Never say Never on ECB buying shares – Holzmann – Investing.com
GBP:
Asset management boss warns of global corporate insolvency crisis – YAHOO
BoE’s Bailey warned over toxic loan risk – Sunday Times
USD:
FED Debates whether to reinforce low rate pledge with Yield caps – WSJ
Post Trump superstars are all China hawks on America’s right – NIKKEI
CHF:
SNB Reserves rose in May reflecting larger interventions – BBG
CNY/AUD:
China’s May imports form Australia -10.7% YoY – BBG
China issues Australia Travel Warning as relationships sour – BBG
OPEC:
OPEC+ Extends oil cuts in win for Saudi-Russian Alliance – BBG
CNY:
China’s trade surplus surges to a record in May as imports slump – BBG
NZD:
New Zealand to end social distancing after eliminating Covid-9 – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
CNY Exports YoY (MAY) A -3.3% | C -7.0% | P 3.5$
CNY Imports YoY (MAY) A -16.7H% | C -9.7% | P -14.2%
CNY Trade Balance USD (MAY) A 62.93b | C 39.0b | P 45.33b
JPY Current Account n.s.a. (APR) A 0.263t | C 0.48t | P 1.971t
JPY GDP YoY (Q1) A -2.2% | C -2.1% | P -3.4%
JPY GDP QoQ (Q1) A -0.6% | C -0.5% | P -0.9%
0600 EUR German Industrial Production MoM (APR) A | C -16.0% | P -9.2%
1215 CAD Housing Starts (MAY) A | C 150k | P 166.4k
1230 CAD Building Permits MoM (APR) A | P -13.2%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening a touch higher to push through the 1.2600 level the market filled the gap and once filled moved steadily through to the 1.2610 area before again running into some offers and drifting back to sub 1.2600 to make the lows of the day around the 1.2590 area, the move through into the grey hour saw the Cable rallying steadily through to the 1.2625 level and then drifting through the grey hour for a limited run before the official opening saw strong buying through to the 1.2650 level and pausing for an hour or so before again testing through to the 1.2690 area and again drifting through to the 1.2630 areas for the move into the NYK opening and a gradual set of steps through to the high of the day around the 1.2730 level before a long drift back to the 1.2665 area and a long quiet run to the close.
- JPY: AS reasonably quiet range around the 109.15 area through the Asian session to head into the grey hours forcing through to the 109.35 area and into congestive offers with two old trend lines in the 109.35 and then again in the 109.60 area initially limiting the move, until the market moved into the NYK session and the notation that Japan had been buying Italian bonds over the past week saw the USDJPY quickly rise on the premise that the buying was now over if the information was in the public domain and testing the top trend line and eventually pushing through on a quick move to the 109.85 before running out of steam and a slow drift back to range around the 109.60 level to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6940 level the market struggled through to the grey hour holding in a tight range around the 0.6950 area and recording a low of around 0.6930 for the day, pushing through into the grey hour the market pushed through to the 0.6980 area for the move into the London session before quickly making a dash on the London open through to the 70 cent level pausing and sitting back on the 0.6990 level for just over an hour before again running at the figure level this time breaking above the 0.7010 level before running out of energy and slipping back to the 0.6990 level however, unlike last time the trip to the level saw weak buyers cutting their position on the failure to move higher and the market quickly stepped back to 0.6960 area and then ranged around the 0.6970 areas through to the close with a few extended rallies and dips before settling just below for the week.
- EUR: A quiet range through the early part of the Asian session saw the market rising through to the 1.1345 area before drifting through in midsession testing the 1.1330 level, a gradual rise through to the London session saw early London quickly push the market through to the 1.1390 area and hold for a brief period before slipping lower then finding no buyers through early morning in London continuing through to the 1.1320 level before the NYK session came in selling down to the 1.1280 level to find light bids holding the market through the session as Euro buyers seemed to have disappeared once the news that Japanese EURJPY buyers had finished.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Household Spending MoM (APR) A -6.2% | C -8.7% | P -4.0%
JPY Household Spending YoY (APR) A -11.1 | C -15.4% | P -6.0%
EUR German Factory Orders MoM (APR) A -25.8% | C -19.7% | P -15.6% | R -15.0%
GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (MAY) A 0.2% | C -0.7% | P -0.9%
GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY A 2.6% | P 2.7%
USD Average hourly Earnings MoM (MAY) A -1.0% | C 1.0% | P 4.7%
USD Average hourly Earnings YoY (MAY) A 6.7% | C 8.5% | P 7.9%
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) A 2509k | C -8,000k | P -20.537k | R -20,587k
USD Participation Rate (MAY) A 60.8% | P 60.2%
USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) A 3,094k | C -7.500k | P -19.557k | R -19,724k
USD Unemployment Rate (MAY) A 13.3% | C 19.8% | P 14.7%
CAD Employment Change (MAY) A 289.6k | C -500.0k | P 1,993.8k
CAD Unemployment Rate (MAY) A 13.75 | C 15.0% | P 13.0%
CAD Ivey PMI (MAY) A 39.1 | P 22.8
USD US Baker Total Rig Count A 284 | P 301
Best Regards
Andy
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