Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.753 | EURUSD 1.13388 | AUDUSD 0.69611 | NZDUSD 0.65164 | USDCAD 1.3466 | USDCHF 0.95078 | GBPUSD 1.27271 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13460 | 1.1332
USDJPY 107.877 | 107.61
GBPUSD 1.27475 | 1.2708
USDCHF 0.95150 | 0.95043
AUDUSD 0.69771 | 0.69331
NZDUSD 0.65315 | 0.64955
USDCAD 1.34270 | 1.33931
EURCHF 1.07906 | 1.07841
EURGBP 0.89192 | 0.89016
EURJPY 122.356 | 122.059
For Today
- GBP: A slow move through the early part of the session with the market holding the 1.2710 opening into the Tokyo opening to dip through to the 1.2705 level before recovering after the Tokyo fix testing through to the 1.2735 area and ranging through to late in the session to test to the 1.2745 level for the move into the grey hour, , light congestion to the topside on the move through to the 1.2750 area where offers are likely to be a little thicker and then stronger offer into the 1.2800 level with weak stops appearing and if Futures positioning has any bearing the possible of a short squeeze higher as stops are triggered however, there is a possibility of a more balanced market and limited potential above the 1.2800 area for movement in the short term. Downside bids creeping high with light bids
- JPY: Light USD buying from the opening to push through into the Tokyo session slowly pushing through early morning to test the 107.85 area before dipping quickly through to the 107.70 level to range quietly through midsession holding the level, the move to the final couple of hours saw the market dipping away to test through to the 107.60 level before slowing and holding for the move into the grey hour, Downside congestion through the 107.50 level likely to slow any move however, through the level stronger bids are likely to appear on a push to the 107.20-106.80 area before weak stops appear with the market possibly reaching for the 106.50 level before funning into solid buyers through to the 106.00 level. Topside offers light through the 107.80 area and into the 108.00 level with possible weak stops making an early appearance and opening the market to a quick rise through to the 108.50 and leaving the 109.00 vulnerable to a challenge.
- AUD: A slow drift through to the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.6950 level before recovering for the actual open and then dipping through to the 0.6930 areas before finding sufficient bids and a slow rise in a slow market through to the grey hour testing through to the 0.6975 area with very little conviction, Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7050 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7080-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, with the market drifting away from the area the possibility of a reverse h&s could appear and this would attract a stronger move into next week and once through 0.7150 the 72 cents level is very vulnerable. Downside bids light through to the 0.6880 area and weak stops appearing and limited support until 0.6820 however, any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move.
- EUR: A very dull Euro with the market opening around the 1.1340 level and generally holding around that area through to the grey hour with the market dipping in early Tokyo to the 1.1330 level for the low and then back to the 1.1345 level and sticking to the level for the move into the grey hour. Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
CNY/AUD:
China warns students about choosing Australia, citing racist incidents – RTRs
EUR/CNY:
EU and China agree to develop closer ties during the 10th round of high-level strategic dialogue – Trade the news
USD:
The Fed will probably keep interest rates at zero – CNN
Fed sees its own ranks are increasingly clamouring for an unprecedented move; sending rates into negative territory – CNN
GBP:
UK retailers report smaller drop in annual sales in May
CNY:
China’s factory deflation deepened in May amid slow recovery – BBG
USD/JPY:
Fed lends a helping hand to Japan’s insurers with cheaper Dollar – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (JUN) A 6.3% | P 16.4%
CNY CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.8% | C -0.5% | P -0.9%
CNY CPI YoY (MAY) A 2.4% | C 2.7% | P 3.3%
CNY PPI YoY (MAY) A -3.7% | C -3.3% | P -3.1%
1230 USD Core CPI YoY (MAY) A | C 1.3% | P 1.4%
1230 USD Core CPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P -0.4%
1230 USD CPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P 0.8%
1330 EUR ECB’s De Guindos speaks
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -1.738m | P -2.077m
1800 USD Federal Budget Balance (MAY) A | C -625b | P -738b
1800 USD FOMC Economic Projections
1800 USD FOMC Statement
1800 USD Fed Interest rate Decision A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1830 USD FOMC Press Conference
2245 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A | P -46.8%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening just above the 1.2720 level early trading saw the market moving to just above the 1.2735 level before the Tokyo market moved in to make the high for the day in a push through the 1.2750 level, the market drifted once the fix was over and the Cable slipped through the session to opening in London testing the 1.2700 areas, Euro buying from the opening saw the EURGBP lifting off the low of the day just below the 0.8870 level to rise steadily, GBP bore the brunt of the movement with Cable dropping through to the 1.2620 level before bottoming out and after pausing through to the NYK session holding around the 1.2640 area NYK moved in to start a slow but steady rise through the session triggering some weak stops on the push through the 1.2675 level for a quick push through the 1.2700 level and eventually topping out around the 1.2745 level before drifting a little to the close with the EURGBP Cross off the 0.8940 higher and only just above the 0.8900 level.
- JPY: As with the GBP making its highs into the Tokyo fix USDJPY rose from the opening just below the 108.40 area and tested through the 108.50 area for the move to the Tokyo opening before slipping lower through the session and culminating in the USDJPY hitting the 108.00 just after the fix was over, and bouncing a little to the 108.15 level before drifting through to the 107.80 level into the early morning London session, a little reprieve in midmorning USD buying before heading to the NYK session and the USD quickly dipping back through to the lows and eventually braking through to test through to the London close trading just above the 107.60 level and then slowly rising through a long run to the close to the 107.75 area.
- AUD: Initially pushing through to the 0.7040 area into the Tokyo fix the market quickly reversed the move through to the 0.7000 level to hold around the level until late in Asia before slipping permanently through the figure and into the London session starting a deep move through to the 69 cents level before fining sufficient bids to turn the market and steadily return to the 0.6950 level for the NYK opening, the market pushed through the level eventually however, it struggled with the 0.6975 level and remained in the 0.6965 area for a long run to the close.
- EUR: Initially USD weakness with the Euro testing to the 1.1315 area from the opening just above the 1.1290 level having hit the early high the market slipped steadily back to the 1.1295 area and then held in the area through to the London session, fresh selling from the opening saw the market test through to the 1.1240 level before slowly grinding back to the 1.1300 level and triggering some weak stops on a mot to above the 1.1350 level and the waiting offers, the Euro pushed through the 1.1360 level however, it struggled doing it and then went through to the close in a long run quietly holding the 1.1335 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MAY) A 7.9% | P 5.7%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAY) A -20 | P -46
CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (MAY) A 3.4% | C 3.5% | P 3.3%
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY) A 3.4% | C 3.7% | P 3.3%
EUR German Trade Balance (APR) A 3.2b | C 10.0b | P 12.8b
EUR Eurozone GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -3.6% | C -3.8% | P -3.8%
EUR Eurozone GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A -3.1% | C -3.2% | P -3.2%
USD OPEC Meeting
GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.