Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.126 | EURUSD 1.13758 | AUDUSD 0.69982 | NZDUSD 0.65509 | USDCAD 1.3411 | USDCHF 0.94381 | GBPUSD 1.27464 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows  

EURUSD               1.13953 | 1.13439

USDJPY                107.136 | 106.896

GBPUSD               1.27544 | 1.26712

USDCHF               0.94494 | 0.94257

AUDUSD              0.70145 | 0.69202

NZDUSD               0.65418 | 0.64868

USDCAD               1.34740 | 1.33991

EURCHF               1.07472 | 1.07186

EURGBP               0.89545 | 0.89237

EURJPY                121.901 | 121.281

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.2750 level and what became the high of the day with the Tokyo session selling through to the 1.2710 level before light buying moved into the area, the market failed the opening level and after a brief pause went into a steady downward trend increasing through the 1.2515 level to test the 1.2685 area before finding minor buyers for the move through to the grey hour, light congestion to the topside on the move through to the 1.2750 area where offers are likely to be a little thicker and then stronger offer into the 1.2800 level  with weak stops appearing and if Futures positioning has any bearing the possible of a short squeeze higher as stops are triggered however, there is a possibility of a more balanced market and limited potential above the 1.2800 area for movement in the short term. Downside bids creeping high with light bids around the 1.2650 area and possible stops opening a quick test of the 1.2600 level and possibly very little then through to the 1.2500 level where strong bids look technically possible.
  • JPY: Opening around the 107.15 level the market moved through into the Tokyo session testing the 106.90 level and that founded the base for the session trading off the level in early Tokyo to test back above the 107.00 level however, the small rally was lost and the market again dipped to run quietly below the figure through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 107.50 area and likely to see stronger offers into the 107.80-108.00 level however, those offers are not likely to be strong enough for a determined rally and a push through the 108.20 area will likely see weak stops pushing through market through the 108.50 area and towards stronger offers into the 108.80-109.00 level. Downside bids limited through to the 106.80 area and then weak stops for a quick move through to 50 level before turning into solid buyers through to the 106.00 level and likely through to the 105.70-80 area.
  • AUD: Opening just below the 70 cents level the move through to the Tokyo session saw cross JPY selling throughout the session with the AUD initially holding in the 0.6980 area only to quickly loose ground from midsession onward trading through to the 0.6920 level before finding buyers to hold the market for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7050 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7080-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, with the market drifting away from the area the possibility of a reverse h&s could appear and this would attract a stronger move into next week and once through 0.7150 the 72 cents level is very vulnerable. Downside bids light through to the 0.6880 area and weak stops appearing and limited support until 0.6820 however, any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move.
  • EUR: The same pattern for the Euro as the Asian Pacific rim area see weaker equity markets triggered by dovish Fed, opening around the 1.1375 level the Euro was the quietest for the most part and there was a limited to push through to the 1.1395 level as you would expect being so close to the 1.1400 area however, as the other currencies started to drop off sharply and USD buyers moved in the Euro dipped back to the opening level and then quickened its pace for a move through the 1.1350 level before finding some support for the move into the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.

 

 

Overnight News

 

AUD:

PM Morrison: on China tensions, Country won’t trade values in response to coercion

JPY:

Japan eyes partial reopening to business trips this summer

USD:

US Lawmakers propose $22.8b in aid to semiconductor industry

KRW:

  1. Korea Says US has no standing to comment on inter-Korean affairs – KCNA

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 78.9% | P -46.8%

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (MAY) A -32% | C -24% | P -22%

JPY         BSI Large manufacturing Conditions A -52.3 | P -17.2

1000      EUR       Eurogroup Meetings

1230      USD       Core PPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P -0.3%

1230      USD       Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,550k | P 1,877k

1230      USD       PPI MoM (MAY) A | C 0.1% | P -1.3%

2100      NZD       Westpac Consumer Sentiment A | P 104.2

2230      NZD       Business NZ PMI (MAY) A | P 26.1

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Drifting from the opening to test through into early Tokyo pushing the 1.2710 level, the move through the balance of the session through into the London opening saw the Cable rising steadily towards the 1.2750 area, London were quick buyers pushing the market above the 1.2775 level and then ranging around the 1.2765 level through to the NYK session with initial selling through to the 1.2735 and reversing to push through to test the 1.2800 level with a brief break before dipping back to a quiet range for 4 hours around the London close. FOMC headline number was unchanged and the market initially spiked lower through the opening snapping back to quickly push through the 1.2800 level running to the 1.2915 before running out of steam and dropping back steadily and gyrate around the 1.2765 level again before finishing around the 1.2750 area.
  • JPY: Another day of JPY strength, opening around the 107.80 level the early market saw light buying through into Tokyo to test above the 107.85 level and then a steady decline through the day initial move through to the London opening saw the 107.30 area holding through into the Tokyo session before stepping down to the 107.20 level and the FOMC release, quick test above 107.45 and then instantly back to the 107.00 level holding for the day and settling around the 107.15 level for the close.
  • AUD: Initially moving in the same manner as the USDJPY with the AUD losing strength into the Tokyo session to test the 0.6935 level and then starting a long steady rise through to the FOMC with London initially struggling with the 70 cents level and then pushing slowly to the 0.7015 area for the NYK opening then NYK holding the same 70 cents level dipping for the release and then doubling back to move from the 0.6980 level through to the 0.7065 and after a very brief pause dipping back to the 70 cent area for the close.
  • EUR: Opening around the 1.1340 level the market made early lows on a dip into the Tokyo session just through the 1.1335 level and a slow rise through to the dizzy heights of 1.1345 for the move into the grey hour, London were quick buyers pushing the market into the 1.1370 area before ranging around the level in a somewhat choppy session through to the FOMC release, with early highs pushing the 1.1385 level and dips through to the opening level, FOMC saw a very quick stab lower to test through the 1.1325 level on no change and then snap higher through to the 1.1420 level before running out of steam and gradually narrowing down for the run to the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

AUD       Westpac Consumer Sentiment (JUN) A 6.3% | P 16.4%

CNY       CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.8% | C -0.5% | P -0.9%

CNY       CPI YoY (MAY) A 2.4% | C 2.7% | P 3.3%

CNY       PPI YoY (MAY) A -3.7% | C -3.3% | P -3.1%

USD       Core CPI YoY (MAY) A 1.2% | C 1.3% | P 1.4%

USD       Core CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.4%

USD       CPI MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.8%

EUR       ECB’s De Guindos speaks

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A 5.72m | C -1.738m | P -2.077m

USD       Federal Budget Balance (MAY) A -399b | C -625b | P -738b

USD       FOMC Economic Projections

USD       FOMC Statement

USD       Fed Interest rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%

USD       FOMC Press Conference

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.