Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.868 | EURUSD 1.12983 | AUDUSD 0.6855 | NZDUSD 0.64172 | USDCAD 1.36298 | USDCHF 0.94425 | GBPUSD 1.26017 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13035 | 1.12769
USDJPY 107.225 | 106.59
GBPUSD 1.26012 | 1.25458
USDCHF 0.94489 | 0.94164
AUDUSD 0.68533 | 0.67998
NZDUSD 0.64291 | 0.63946
USDCAD 1.36660 | 1.36139
EURCHF 1.06718 | 1.06544
EURGBP 0.89909 | 0.89605
EURJPY 121.112 | 120.27
For Today
- GBP: A quiet opening around the 1.2600 level for the Cable only to dip as equity markets reproduce yesterdays dips, the move through to the Tokyo session saw the market holding the 1.2575 level and a pause to the selling if only for a few hours, the move through to midsession saw the lows made on a dip through to the 1.2550 level and stronger bids holding the market for the time being and a steady push to the 1.2570 level for the move to the grey hour, downside bids light through the current lows with the possibility of stronger bids on any push through the 1.2500 level and then continuing congestion into the 1.2450 level before decent stops are likely to appear opening the market only to the 1.2400 area and again strong congestion in the area, topside offers light through to the 1.2700 level with limited offers building for the movement any strong test through the 1.2600 level could see a short squeeze appearing however, today is the day a decision is made on any delay to Brexit at the end of the year with persons familiar with, which usually means someone who can’t stay quiet long enough to collect his brown envelope from the relevant media outlet. Given that it could be a wild ride again.
- JPY: Eventually a stronger finish to the week for the USDJPY with the market initially dipping to the 106.70 level and then running back to the opening levels before another round of selling pushed the market through to just below the 106.60 area before quickly pushing back hitting the opening level and then strong buying and a quick rise through to the grey hour testing the 107.20 level before running out of steam, Topside offers light through the 107.50 area and likely to see stronger offers into the 107.80-108.00 level however, those offers are not likely to be strong enough for a determined rally and a push through the 108.20 area will likely see weak stops pushing through market through the 108.50 area and towards stronger offers into the 108.80-109.00 level. Downside bids limited through to the 106.80 area and then weak stops for a quick move through to 106.50 level before turning into solid buyers through to the 106.00 level and likely through to the 105.70-80 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6850 level the opening of the equity markets saw a dip and the Oz followed trading through to the 0.6820 area recovering half its losses into the Tokyo session and then moving in two steps through to the 68 cents level and bouncing a little and a push back into late session back to the opening levels for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7000 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7050-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: A very limited session with the market drifting from the opening around the 1.1300 level through to midsession in Tokyo testing the 1.1275 area before recovering and holding quietly around the 1.1295 level through to the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
USD:
Alarming rise in virus cases as States roll back lockdowns – APW
GBP:
UK will formally rule out Brexit deadline today – BBG
Person familiar with matter speaks ahead of Brexit meeting – BBG
UK Plans temporary light touch customs checks with EU from 2021 – BBG
UK’s Gove to set out Position in meeting with EU Friday – BBG
EUR:
European banks are set for relief on sovereign bond holdings – BBG
KRW:
- Korea: To build up ability to deal with US threat – BBG
- Korea: Relations with the US have now shifted into despair – KCNA
- Korea: US is hell bent on exacerbating tensions – KCNA
- Korea: US Policy proves US remains long term threat to our people – KCNA
AUD/NZD:
Shares a sea of red as virus fears resurface
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Business NZ PMI (MAY) A 39.7 | P 26.1
JPY Industrial Production MoM (APR) A -9.8% | C -9.1% | P -9.1%
0600 GBP GDP MoM A | C -18.7% | P -5.8%
0600 GBP GDP YoY A | C -22.3% | P -5.7%
0600 GBP Industrial Production MoM (APR) A | C -15.0% | P -4.2%
0600 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (APR) A | C -15.8% | P -4.6%
0600 GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m change A | C -10.0% | P -2.0%
0600 GBP Trade Balance (APR) A | C -11.62b | P -12.51b
0600 GBP Trade Balance non-EU (APR) A | C -4b | P -4.88b
0700 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (MAY) A | C -1.0% | P -1.0%
0800 EUR ECB’s Emma Speaks
0900 EUR Industrial Production MoM (APR) A | C -20% | P -11.3%
1000 EUR EU Finance Ministers meeting
1200 EUR ECB’s Emma Speaks
1230 USD Export price index MoM (MAY) A | C 0.6% | P -3.3%
1230 USD Import price Index MoM (MAY) A | C 0.6% | P -2.8%
1400 USD Michigan consumer Sentiment A | C 75.0 | P 72.3
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 284
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening on its highs the Cable managed to hold the 1.2750 level through into the Tokyo opening before dipping recovering and then a steady round after round of selling with most equity markets on the back foot namely through the dovish commentary from Powell the Cable tested through to the London session testing the 1.2650 level and some respite from the movement, with early London slowly pushing back above the 1.2700 level peaking around the 1.2720 level before again turning and slipping through into the NYK session pushing through the 1.2650 area and continuing through to the 1.2600 level ranging just below for the move into the close.
- JPY: A little choppy through the day however, long periods of ranging around the 106.90-107.00 level, opening around the 107.10 area the market slipped lower for the move into the Tokyo session holding the 106.90 level through until late in the session before rally steadily through into the grey hour to test through the 107.20 level for the high of the day before London entered the market and forced the USDJPY steadily through to the 106.75 level, then up then down with NYK selling through to the 106.60 level before rising back to that 106.90 area for the close.
- AUD: A little spike after the opening saw the highs of the day just above the 0.7010 level and then the selling started initially in the Equity market then the AUD with foreign exporters selling everything efficiently with no spill overs but persistent equity selling and then Oz selling and the market pushed through into the London session holding the 69 cents level and held through to the NYK session before pushing through and a continuation of the move through to the 0.6850 level for the close.
- EUR: Euro’s caught in between different strategies with early trading pushing through to midsession testing the 1.1395 level before being dragged lower by buffeting winds of a weaker Cable and Commodity currencies in AUD and NZD with weaker equity markets sending them lower the move into the grey hour saw the Euro pushing through to the 1.1330 level reversing and moving into the London session recovering and pushing through the 1.1400 level for the first time only to repeat the moves for the move into the NYK session, steady selling down to the 1.1330 area again and NYK reversing for the market to push to its high around the 1.1405 level this time and then hanging around the 1.1380 level for the end of London before running quickly lower, this time though there was no stopping the market with the market testing quickly through the lows and then drifting through to the close testing through the 1.1300 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A 78.9% | P -46.8%
GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAY) A -32% | C -24% | P -22%
JPY BSI Large manufacturing Conditions A -52.3 | P -17.2
EUR Eurogroup Meetings
USD Core PPI MoM (MAY) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.3%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 1,542k | C 1,550k | P 1,877k
USD PPI MoM (MAY) A 0.4% | C 0.1% | P -1.3%
Best Regards
Andy
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