Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.383 | EURUSD 1.12564 | AUDUSD 0.68657 | NZDUSD 0.64468 | USDCAD 1.3588 | USDCHF 0.94248 | GBPUSD 1.2541 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.12681 | 1.12276
USDJPY 107.562 | 107.099
GBPUSD 1.25249 | 1.24873
USDCHF 0.95320 | 0.95114
AUDUSD 0.68455 | 0.68088
NZDUSD 0.64524 | 0.64077
USDCAD 1.36415 | 1.35973
EURCHF 1.07173 | 1.07023
EURGBP 0.89972 | 0.8968
EURJPY 120.908 | 120.519
For Today
- GBP: Risk off for the start of the week with USD performing in early trading and the opening for Cable around the 1.2520 level and quickly dipping for the move into the Tokyo session testing the low for the session around the 1.2485 area before recovering through to the opening levels and unable to push to far beyond the level and a tight range through to the grey hour, Downside congestion through the 1.2450 level likely to temper any downward trend for the moment with stronger bids likely into the 1.2400 level however, a break here could see limited congestion through sentimental levels through to the 1.2200 level before stronger bids start to really appear. Topside offers light through to the 1.2600 level with some weak stops likely to cause a fluster before sentimental congestion around the 1.2650 area cools the market a little with stronger offers around the 1.2700 level for the moment through to the 1.2750 area.
- JPY: Opening unchanged the USDJPY rose quickly in a pre-Tokyo move to test through the 107.55 level to make the high of the session before falling back through to the 107.15 level to base on that level through to the grey hours in a limited session. Topside offers light through the 107.50 area and likely to see stronger offers into the 107.80-108.00 level however, those offers are not likely to be strong enough for a determined rally and a push through the 108.20 area will likely see weak stops pushing through market through the 108.50 area and towards stronger offers into the 108.80-109.00 level. Downside bids limited through to the 106.80 area and then weak stops for a quick move through to 106.50 level before turning into solid buyers through to the 106.00 level and likely through to the 105.70-80 area.
- AUD: Opening a little low the market saw quick selling in a limited market through to the 0.6840
level before drifting through to early Tokyo and further selling moved in through to the 0.6810 level, much of the session once it recovered into the Tokyo opening saw the market trading around the 0.6835 level and dipping in midsession to extend the low just through the 0.6810 area before again recovering and returning to the previous tight range for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7000 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7050-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: Opening lower through the 1.1235 level and then dipping through to the 1.1225 area before slowly moving through the session to only manage to fill the gap through to the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
USD:
NYK Governor Andrew Cuomo threatens to reverse Covid-19 reopening plans – GLO
Don’t be fooled into thinking Republicans are split over Trump – CNN
HKD:
Hong Kong’s rich are preparing for a worst-case scenario – BBG
Cheng rejects sunset clause for security law – The Standard HK
EUR:
Macron: France must seek greater economic independence after virus – NPW
Guindos says too early for discussion about European bad bank – BBG
CNY:
Beijing outbreak grows as panic spreads through the Chinese Capital – BBG
China’s peaceful rise vanishes in thin air – Project Syndicate
Beijing officials have closed down parts of the city and implemented tighter controls after record number of new virus cases appeared – Trade the News
KRW:
Kim’s Sister says Army ready for action on S. Korea – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
CNY Industrial Production YoY (MAY) A 4.4% | C 5.0% | P 3.9%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (MAY) A -2.8% | P -4.9%
CNY Unemployment rate A 5.9% | P 6.0%
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -6.0% | P -4.2%
0630 CHF PPI MoM (MAY) A | P -1.3%
0900 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (APR) A | P 28.2b
1230 USD Empire Manufacturing Index (JUN) A | C -27.5 | P -48.5
1230 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM A | C -18.7% | P -9.2%
2000 USD TIC Net Long Term Transactions A | P -112.6b
2100 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2) A | P 104.2
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow drift from the opening levels around th3 1.2600 level and testing steadily through to just through the 1.2550 area before finding light bids for the move into midsession in Tokyo, recovering into the grey hours the market dipped on the opening of London from the 1.2600 level again and although it didn’t step to far away the market struggled through the first hour before pushing through the 1.2600 level again and this time traded through the 1.2630 level through to the NYK opening pushing lightly at the 1.2650 level and stronger selling moved through the market for the run to the weekend, with a tight channelled fall back through the session with weak stops through the 1.2550 area the market eventually found the 1.2475 level and limited recovery through to the close.
- JPY: A slow drift from the opening saw the market testing through to the low for the day in early Tokyo touching the 106.60 level before quickly recovering through to the opening around the 106.85 area and running quickly higher through midsession in Tokyo to test through to the 107.30 level, the move through the grey hour and early London saw the market trading tightly around the 107.20 level with brief moves to the 107.30 level and unable to really test the 107.10 level again, eventually the market broke and the USDJPY ran to its high for the day to touch the 107.55 level before holding in a reasonably tight range around the 107.30 level for the run to the close.
- AUD: As with USDJPY a minor dip in early Tokyo saw the Oz trading into the Tokyo session to make the low of the day around the 68 cents level before rallying steadily through to the 69 cents area into early London testing the 0.6910 for the high of the day and then ranging through into the NYK session holding the 0.6880-0.6900 areas with a couple of more tests to the high, before the run to London close saw a concerted selloff through to just above the lows and a slow recovery to finish positively on the day.
- EUR: A quiet run through the Tokyo session with the market drifting from the 1.1300 level to hold just above the 1.1275 level into early London almost unchanged, London put the market above the figure level and into midmorning saw the Euro slowly pushing to the high of the session testing the 1.1335 level before again drifting through into the NYK session back to the figure level, a quiet run to midsession in NYK saw the market dropping back for the move into the London close and the market trading around the 1.1250 area dipping through into the 1.1220 area for the lows of the day before recovering on a long steady rise to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Business NZ PMI (MAY) A 39.7 | P 26.1
JPY Industrial Production MoM (APR) A -9.8% | C -9.1% | P -9.1%
GBP GDP MoM A -20.4% | C -18.7% | P -5.8%
GBP GDP YoY A -24.5% | C -22.3% | P -5.7%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (APR) A -20.3% | C -15.0% | P -4.2%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (APR) A 24.3% | C -15.8% | P -4.6%
GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m change A -10.4% | C -10.0% | P -2.0%
GBP Trade Balance (APR) A -7.49b | C -11.62b | P -12.51b
GBP Trade Balance non-EU (APR) A -2.66b | C -4b | P -4.88b
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (MAY) A -0.9% | C -1.0% | P -1.0%
EUR ECB’s Emma Speaks
EUR Industrial Production MoM (APR) A -17.1% | C -20% | P -11.3% | R -11.9%
EUR EU Finance Ministers meeting
EUR ECB’s Emma Speaks
USD Export price index MoM (MAY) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P -3.3%
USD Import price Index MoM (MAY) A 1.0% | C 0.6% | P -2.6%
USD Michigan consumer Sentiment A 78.9 | C 75.0 | P 72.3
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 279 | P 284
Best Regards
Andy
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