Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.329 | EURUSD 1.13225 | AUDUSD 0.69196 | NZDUSD 0.64779 | USDCAD 1.35735 | USDCHF 0.94912 | GBPUSD 1.26054 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13482 | 1.13195
USDJPY 107.641 | 107.232
GBPUSD 1.26732 | 1.25941
USDCHF 0.94960 | 0.94839
AUDUSD 0.69748 | 0.69088
NZDUSD 0.65066 | 0.64644
USDCAD 1.35735 | 1.35132
EURCHF 1.07663 | 1.07433
EURGBP 0.89852 | 0.89497
EURJPY 122.087 | 121.518
For Today
- GBP: A steady rise from the opening around the 1.2600 level to push through to push through into early Tokyo testing towards the 1.2650 level before hitting light offers but sufficient to turn the market back to the 1.2620 area, through midsession the market caught a second wind and Cable pushed through to the 1.2675 area to make the high before ranging through to the grey hour holding around the 1.2665 area. Downside congestion through the 1.2450 level likely to temper any downward trend for the moment with stronger bids likely into the 1.2400 level however, a break here could see limited congestion through sentimental levels through to the 1.2200 level before stronger bids start to really appear. Topside offers stronger around the 1.2700 level for the moment through to the 1.2750 area. A push through the 1.2760 level will likely see strong offers again on any approach and push through to the 1.2810-20 area before stops appear and the market opens to weaker congestion through to the 1.2900 level where stronger offers are likely to appear to slow any further gains.
- JPY: A light push through into the Tokyo session testing the 107.55 area before dropping back for the release of the BoJ announcement testing to the 107.25 area before no change helped the market run through to the 107.65 area and the high for the session dipping back for the move into the grey hour around the 107.40 level and only just above the opening level, Downside bids limited through to the 106.80 area and then weak stops for a quick move through to 106.50 level before turning into solid buyers through to the 106.00 level and likely through to the 105.70-80 area. Topside offers increasing through the 107.80 area and likely to continue through to the 108.10-20 area before weak stops appear and limited offers through to the 108.50 area where steady offers are likely to appear through to the 109.00 levels.
AUD: Opening around the 0.6920 level the market moved quietly through into the Tokyo session rising through to the 0.6950 area to hold in a tight range through to late in the session before making the high around the 0.6975 area and dipping back into the holding range again for the move to the grey hour, Topside offers likely to be light through the 0.7000 area and stiffen on any move through to the 0.7050-0.7100 area, once through the 0.7120 area the possibility of a small squeeze however, Downside bids light through to the 0.6800 area and continuing on any push through to the 0.6780 level is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the downside opening to a deeper move. With limited bids through to the 0.6700-0.6680 before stronger bids appear.
- EUR: A light rise from the opening around the 1.1320 area to push through into midsession in Tokyo testing towards the 1.1350 level before drifting a little for the move into the grey hour, Some congestion through to the 1.1400-20 level with limited stops through the area of 1.1420 should see stronger offers then appearing and increasing from the 1.1440 area onwards particularly through the 1.1480 level with stops quickly appearing on a push through the 1.1500 level to open up further gains technically to the topside. Downside bids light through to the 1.1200 level and weak stops on any dip through those weak bids into that level however, stronger bids start to appear on any push for the 1.1150 level and likely to continue in size to the 1.1100 level.
Overnight News
KRW:
- Korea Army getting ready to implement Government orders – KCNA
Cites statement from N. Korea’s General staff of Army – KCNA
Kim Jong Un’s Sister takes bigger role in threats to S. Korea – BBG
USD:
Chesapeake Energy to file for bankruptcy as soon as this weekend – RTR’s
CNY:
China’s rich seek way to move cash abroad before Yuan weakens – Nikkei
Beijing closes 11 food markets
Shanghai to quarantine all people arriving from high risk COVID areas in China for 14days
JPY:
BoJ: Special Virus lending program rises to about 110t from 75t
AUD:
RBA Cash rate to stay unchanged till progress on CPI, Job’s goals
RBA: Possible downturn will be shallower than earlier expected
RBA: Likely fiscal, monetary support required for some time
AUD payroll jobs rose 0.4% in week ending May 30
Total Payroll jobs increased by 1.0% through May, according to latest release – ABS
USD:
Trump team weighs $1t for infrastructure to spur economy – BBG
Administration draft plan remains under discussion, not final – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2) A 97.2 | P 104.2
AUD House Price Index QoQ (Q1) A 1.6% | C 2.7% | P 3.9%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
JPY BoJ Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
0600 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus A | C 1.4% | P 2.4%
0600 GBP Claimant Count Change (MAY) A | C 400k | P 858.5k
0600 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (APR) A | C -83k | P 211k
0600 GBP Unemployment Rate (APR) A | 4.7% | P 3.9%
0600 EUR German CPI MoM (MAY) A | C -0.1% | P -0.1%
0700 JPY BoJ Press Conference
0900 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (JUN) A | C -84.0 | P 93.5
0900 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiments (JUN) A | C 60.0 | P 51.0
0900 EUR Eurozone Wages YoY (Q1) A | P 2.30%
0900 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUN) A | P 46.0
1230 USD Core Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 5.4% | P -17.2%
1230 USD Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 8.0% | P -16.4%
1315 USD Industrial Production YoY (MAY) A | P -15.04%
1315 USD Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A | C 2.9% | P -11.2%
1400 USD Business Inventories MoM (APR) A | C -0.8% | P -0.2%
1400 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
1400 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (APR) A | P -1.1%
2245 NZD Current Account YoY (Q1) A | C -8.47b | P -8.23b
2245 NZD Current Account QoQ (Q1) A | C 1.48b | P -2.66b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening lower with USD up and risk off, the market held briefly around the 1.2520 level before dipping through to test below the 1.2500 level to hold the 1.2480 level before returning to just above the figure level and ranging around the 1.2515 through to the grey hour testing just beyond the 1.2525 level and able to remain above the 1.2500 level through until just before London and early sellers moving through to gradually push through to the 1.2465 area with the market holding in the area for about an hour but unable to push through to the 1.2450 level and making lows just above that level. The market quickly recovered though to the 1.2550 level triggering weak stops on the way through the opening level and pushing through the level on the move into the NYK session to hold for a couple of hours before rushing to the 1.2575 level and ranging through to the London close between the 1.2550-75 area, with London closed the market again pushed 25 pips higher and ranged towards the close tight around the level.
- JPY: Initially starting the session unchanged the market then jumped from the initial lows around the 107.30 level through the opening 107.40 and tested the 107.55 as early Tokyo moved in. the move into the Tokyo session saw the USDJPY slipping steadily back to the lows and eventually breaking through to test the 107.20 level before finding a few bids for a brief couple of hours, the move through to midsession saw some steady selling and the low extended to the 107.00 level before then moving into the grey hour and slowly recovering the losses and into the London session to recover to the opening levels, from that point though the market was caught in a general 107.30-45 range through to the close with brief sojourns above and below that range.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6540 level the AUD steadily pushing through to the 0.6805 area before holding quietly in a tight range around the 0.6820 area through to the grey hour, light selling through to the 0.6780 level saw the low into the London opening and the market struggling to recover pushing steadily back to 0.6820 and then stepping progressively higher through the day Moving into the NYK session pushing through the highs and filling the gap from Friday then after London had left forced its way through to the 69 cents level to hold above the level through to the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1240 level early sellers took the market to the days low just above the 1.1225 area before the market recovered and steadily moved to fill the gap on the charts and range around the 1.1255 level through to the grey hour, early Europeans were sellers and the move through to the London session saw the lows close to being tested before recovering and then ranging through to the end of London nearly around the 1.1245 area, NYK eventually pushed the market through to the 1.1285 area and struggled for a time before breaking through the 1.1300 level triggering some weak stops on a move to the 1.1325 level and the high for the day.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
CNY Industrial Production YoY (MAY) A 4.4% | C 5.0% | P 3.9%
CNY Industrial Production YTD YoY (MAY) A -2.8% | P -4.9%
CNY Unemployment rate A 5.9% | P 6.0%
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -6.0% | P -4.2%
CHF PPI MoM (MAY) A -0.5% | P -1.3%
EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (APR) A 2.9b | P 28.2b
USD Empire Manufacturing Index (JUN) A -0.2 | C -27.5 | P -48.5
CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (APR) A -28.5% | C -18.7% | P -9.2%
USD TIC Net Long Term Transactions A -128.4b | P -112.6b
Best Regards
Andy
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