Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.926 | EURUSD 1.12994 | AUDUSD 0.69488 | NZDUSD 0.65724 | USDCAD 1.34968 | USDCHF 0.9412 | GBPUSD 1.26218 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows  

EURUSD               1.13304 | 1.13023

USDJPY                106.944 | 106.790

GBPUSD               1.26583 | 1.26129

USDCHF               0.94126 | 0.93955

AUDUSD              0.69737 | 0.69424

NZDUSD              0.65808 | 0.64683

USDCAD               1.36001 | 1.3568

EURCHF               1.06413 | 1.06349

EURGBP               0.89557 | 0.89489

EURJPY                121.037 | 120.822

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening unchanged and testing through to the 1.2640 area for the move into the Tokyo session, early Tokyo saw light selling initially however, once the Tokyo fix was over with the market steadily pushed through to the 1.2660 level and ranged around the 1.2655 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside weakness through to the 1.2700 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to  the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month  come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2550 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear, with stronger bids on any attempt towards the 1.2450-00 area.
  • JPY: Very limited range with the market opening unchanged around the 106.90 level and then drifting through to the 106.80 area in early Tokyo and holding through to the grey hour around the level in a tight range. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
  • AUD: Opening a touch stronger and moving through to the 0.6960 level for the Tokyo opening, steady selling from there through to make the low just above the 0.6940 level and once the Tokyo fix was out of the way steady buying saw the 0.6950 opening areas quickly pushed through and the market topping our around the 0.6975 level before holding through to the grey hour just off the high. Topside offers through the current level with increasing through the 0.7000 area and while there could be weak stops through the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
  • EUR: Opening a little stronger and making an early push through to just below the 1.1320 level before dipping back through into the Tokyo fix to test the opening level but unable to close the gap on the chart, a slow rise through to the grey hour saw the market challenging the 1.1330 ;level briefly before holding just below the area quietly. downside congestion through the 1.1200  level with weak stops likely on a strong move through the 1.1170 area opening up a quick test through the 1.1150 level before hitting stronger congestion through to the 1.1100 level from the beginning of the month and vulnerable to a stronger move through to 1.1050 before the market starts thickening for the sentimental 1.1000, Topside likely to increase through to the 1.1400 level with strong stops possible on a move through the 1.1420 area to open up a quick move through  to the 1.1450 area before slowing as the market moves to the sentimental 1.1480-1.1520 area and possibly a bid tone.

 

 

Overnight News

 

GBP:

UK Huawei decision part of wider strategic tensions with China – BBC

CNY:

China Banks NPL backed note sales surge as stress builds up – BBG

OIL:

OPEC and Russia may ease oil production cuts – NYT

USD/CNY:

Top US aide expects tough action on TikTok, WeChat

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

JPY         Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -2.1% | P -6.0%

1800      USD       Federal Budget Balance A | C -863.0b | P -399.0b

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Light selling through the Asian session saw the market drifting off the 1.2610 through to the grey hour testing the 1.2565 level before London moved in and slowly reversed the losses through to the 1.2625 level before dipping a little for the NYK opening and a revitalised GBP pushing quickly through to the 1.2650 area to peak just short of the 1.2665 level before drifting back to hold around the 1.2630 area through to the close.
  • JPY: USDJPY selling through the Asian session into the Tokyo close before London was able to turn the movement, opening around the 107.20 area and testing lightly through to the 107.25 areas for the high of the day before drifting through to the London session pushing towards the 106.70 area with some minor fluctuations around the 106.80 area before NYK was able to turn the market back to the 106.90 area for a long tight range to the close.
  • AUD: Steady range through into the Tokyo opening with the market quickly dipping away from the early 0.6965 area high to test through to the 0.6935 level and a limited holding pattern around the 0.6940 area before moving lower through to the grey hour to test the 0.6925 area before London moved in and slowly pushed the market through to just before the NYK session testing the opening levels again, NYK held around the 0.6960 and extended the high just after the opening to just short of the 0.6970 area before dipping for the London close back to the 0.6940 area and a slow push to the 0.6950 area for the close.
  • EUR: A limited rise through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1290 level before starting the same weakness through the session as what looked like cross JPY selling pushed the Euro through to the 1.1255 area before grey hour buying started to move in to slowly push the market through to the 1.1300 level before pausing for the NYK opening, a little dip was quickly pushed back higher to take the market to the high of the day around the 1.1320 area before drifting through to the 1.1300 level for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

NZD       Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A 16.3% | P 78.9%

CNY       New Loans (JUN) A 1,810b | C 1,800.0b | P 1,480.0b

USD       Core PPI MoM (JUN) A -0.3% | C 0.1% | P -0.1%

USD       PPI MoM (JUN) A -0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%

CAD       Employment Change A 952.9k | C 700.0k | P 289.6k

CAD       Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 12.3% | C 12.0% | P 13.7%

USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig count A 258 | P 263

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.