Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107. | EURUSD 1.13 | AUDUSD 0.69 | NZDUSD 0.65 | USDCAD 1.36 | USDCHF 0.94 | GBPUSD 1.26 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.14235 | 1.13936
USDJPY 107.309 | 107.197
GBPUSD 1.25870 | 1.25509
USDCHF 0.94051 | 0.93922
AUDUSD 0.70158 | 0.69683
NZDUSD 0.65628 | 0.65321
USDCAD 1.36176 | 1.3587
EURCHF 1.07320 | 1.07067
EURGBP 0.90794 | 0.90667
EURJPY 122.496 | 122.163
For Today
- GBP: A steady rise through into early Tokyo pushing through to the 1.2585 area attempting the level a couple of times before slipping back for a slow move through into the grey hour holding the 1.2565 areas, Topside weakness through to the 1.2600 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2650 and 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2550 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear, with stronger bids on any attempt towards the 1.2450-00 area.
- JPY: A very quiet session through the Asian session with the market holding in the 107.20-30 area having opened around the 107.25 area, topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Opening on its lows the market moved from the 0.6975 area quickly to test the 0.6990 area and paused for the move into the Tokyo session before quickly testing through the 70 cents level and then a second run to lightly test towards the 0.7020 area before steadily drifting back to the 0.6990 for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers remain just in front of the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: A slow rise from the opening around the 1.1395 area to test lightly to the 1.1410 level before holding for the Tokyo opening, fixing demand saw the Euro testing just above the 1.1420 level before then sliding slowly through the 1.1400 level and back to the opening for the move into the grey hour, Downside see’s light bids through to the 1.1300 level with some congestive bids in the area before weak stops appear on a dip through the 1.1280 area and opening up a small amount of weakness through to the 1.1250 before opening to the 1.1200 level and stronger bids through to the 1.1180 with weak stops through the level. Topside stops likely on a strong push through the 1.1420 area and opening some weakness through to the 1.1480 area where stronger offers are likely to continue through to the 1.1520 areas.
Overnight News
USD/HKD:
Trump ends Hong Kong trade preferences, back sanctions
CNY/HKD:
China says Hong Kong democracy activists trying to launch revolution
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD New Home Sales MoM A | P -4.2%
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (JUL) A -6.1% | P 6.3%
JPY BoJ Outlook Report YoY
JPY BoJ Interest rate decision A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%
0600 GBP CPI YoY (JUN) A | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
0600 GBP CPI MoM (JUN) A | C -0.2% | P 0.0%
0600 GBP PPI Input MoM (JUN) A | C 3.0 | P 0.3%
0800 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
1230 USD Export Price Index MoM (JUN) A | C 0.8% | P 0.5%
1230 USD Import Price Index MoM (JUN) A | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1230 USAD Empire State Manufacturing Index (JUN) A | C 10.00 | P -0.20
1230 CAD Core CPI YoY (JUN) A | P 0.7%
1230 CAD Core CPI MoM (JUN) A | P -0.1%
1230 CAD CPI MoM (JUN) A | C 0.7% | P 0.3%
1230 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 9.5% | P -28.5%
1315 USD Industrial Production MoM (JUN) A | C 4.3% | P 1.4%
1315 USD Industrial Production YoY (JUN) A | P -15.27%
1400 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
1400 CAD BoC Rate Statement
1400 CAD BoC Internet Rate Decision A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.098m | P 5.654m
1515 CAD BoC Press Conference
1600 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
1800 USD Beige Book
2245 NZD CPI QoQ (Q2) A | C -0.5% | P 0.8%
2245 NZD CPI YoY (Q2) A | C 1.5% | P 2.5%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet session through the Asian session with the market opening around the 1.2555 area and touching the 1.2565 area in early trading before settling around the 1.2560 area for the move through into the Tokyo session, Tokyo fix saw steady selling through to the 1.2540 to hold quietly in a tight range between 1.2540-50 area with a little push above the topside of that range into the grey hour, grey hour selling pushed through into the London session testing through to the 1.2510 levels before holding the level and managing a slight rise for the move into the NYK opening, NYK were early seller through to the 1.2480 area bouncing from the level and quickly pushing through the figure level pausing then running to the 1.2540 area before slowing and steadily pushing through the 1.2550 area into the London close and then ranging just above the level quietly to the close.
- JPY: A quiet opening through into the Tokyo session with the market initially pushing through the 107.35 area before dropping quickly back after the Tokyo fix to test the 107.10 level bouncing and returning through to the opening level for the move into the London session, extending the highs through to the NYK session pushing towards the 107.45 in a little stretch before dropping back through to the close in London again testing through the 107.20 level and bouncing around the 107.25 area for the close.
- AUD: A very quiet session overall, with a tight range through into the Tokyo session holding around the 0.6945 level before dipping back to the 0.6925 area for the early low, a slow rise through to the London session saw the lows extended from the opening testing to the 107.20 level before again slowly rising through into the NYK opening and a similar dip and similar rally eventually pushing through to the 0.6975 high and the close for the day.
- EUR: A quiet opening and then a slow drift through the session saw the Euro move from the early highs around the 1.1350 area to test the 1.1335 level and hold through to the grey hour, London saw some light selling through to the 1.1325 area before recovering as EURGBP buying moved through the market after a weaker UK GDP number helped the Euro continue through to the 1.1380 area, early weak sellers soon ended and the market started rising again this time pushing through the 1.1400 level but struggling with the 1.1410 area before slowly drifting to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (JUN) A 10.9% | P 7.9%
AUD NAB Business Confidence A 1 | P -20
JPY Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A -8.9% | C -8.4% | P -8.4% | R -9.8%
CNY Exports YoY (JUN) A 0.5% | C -1.5% | P -3.3%
CNY Imports YoY (JUN) A 2.7% | C -10.0% | P -16.7%
CNY Trade Balance USD (JUN) A 46.42b | C 58.60b | P 62.93b
GBP GDP MoM A 1.8% | P -20.4%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A 6;0% | C 6.0% | P -20.3% | R -20.2%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (MAY) A 8.4% | C 8.0% | P -24.3% | R -24.4%
GBP Trade Balance A -2.81b | C -8.10b | P -7.49b | R -4.80b
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU A 0.65b | P -2.66b | R -0.94b
EUR German CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.6% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A -19.1% | C -17.4% | P -10.4%
CHF PPI MoM (JUN) A 0.5% | P -0.5%
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (JUN) A -0.3% | C -0.3% | P -0.9%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (JUN) A -0.3% | C -0.3% | P -0.9%
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions A -80.9 | C -65.0 | P -83.1
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUL) A 59.3 | C 60.0 | P 63.4
EUR Eurozone Industrial Production MoM (MAY) A 12.4% | C 15.0% | P -17.1% | R -18.2%
EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (JUL) A 59.6 | P 58.6
USD OPEC Monthly Report
USD Core CPI YoY (JUN) A 1.2% | C 1.1% | P 1.2%
USD Core CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.2% | C 0.1% | P -0.1%
CHF SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks
USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Best Regards
Andy
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