Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.932 | EURUSD 1.1114 | AUDUSD 0.7008 | NZDUSD 0.65685 | USDCAD 1.35086 | USDCHF 0.94473 | GBPUSD 1.25874 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.14184 | 1.1400
USDJPY 107.033 | 106.834
GBPUSD 1.25930 | 1.2550
USDCHF 0.94558 | 0.94419
AUDUSD 0.70207 | 0.69863
NZDUSD 0.65780 | 0.6553
USDCAD 1.35129 | 1.35028
EURCHF 1.07883 | 1.07754
EURGBP 0.90833 | 0.9067
EURJPY 122.145 | 121.90
For Today
- GBP: A quiet run into the Tokyo session rising marginally to the 1.2595 area before starting a slightly deeper drift through to the grey hour pushing to the 1.2550 area and holding, Topside weakness through to the 1.2600 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2650 and 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2550 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear, with stronger bids on any attempt towards the 1.2450-00 area.
- JPY: A quiet drift through into Tokyo with the market pushing to the 106.90 area and eventually breaking through to test just below the 106.85 area and some buying appearing once the Fix was over with, testing lightly through the 107.00 level the market with very little direction and slipped slowly through to hold around the opening levels. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Testing through the 0.7010 in early trading the market drifted a little through into Tokyo before attempting the level again and having failed dipped a little through to the 0.6990’s with some spikes as data was released before continuing its drift through into the 0.6980 area and then holding around the 0.6990 for the grey hour, Topside offers remain just in front of the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: A slow rise through early Tokyo testing towards the 1.1420 level before dropping back quickly with the help of the Oz employment numbers with EURAUD longs cutting some of there positions through to the 1.1400 level on the Euro leg, a quiet run to the grey hour for the remain of the session, Downside see’s light bids through to the 1.1300 level with some congestive bids in the area before weak stops appear on a dip through the 1.1280 area and opening up a small amount of weakness through to the 1.1250 before opening to the 1.1200 level and stronger bids through to the 1.1180 with weak stops through the level. Topside stops likely on a strong push through the 1.1420 area and opening some weakness through to the 1.1480 area where stronger offers are likely to continue through to the 1.1520 areas.
Overnight News
CAD:
BoC reiterates QE pace to remain at min CS5b per week – BBG
BoC to keep 0.25% rate until inflation target hit – BBG
BoC to maintain 0.25% rate until inflation achieved – BBG
USD:
Another FED official backs rates at zero until inflation tops 2% – BBG
CNY/HKD:
Bankers shocked by 45% China tax rate mull leaving Hong Kong – BBG
USD/CNY:
US weighs sweeping travel ban on Chinese communist party members – NYT
AUD:
Employment soars by 210,800, biggest monthly gain ever and strategy – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
2245 NZD CPI QoQ (Q2) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P 0.8%
2245 NZD CPI YoY (Q2) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 2.5%
AUD New Home Sales MoM A 87.2% | P -4.2%
AUD Employment Change (JUN) A 210.8k | C 112.5k | P -222.7k
AUD Full employment Change (JUN) A -38.1k | P -89.1k
AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 7.4% | C 7.4% | P 7.1%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (JUN) A -3.1% | C -3.3% | P -6.3%
CNY GDP QoQ (Q2) A 11.5% | C 9.6% | P -9.3%
CNY GDP YoY (Q2) A 3.2% | C 2.5% | P -6.8%
CNY Chinese GDP YTD YoY (Q2) A -1.6% | P -6.8%
CNY Industrial Production (YoY (JUN) A 4.8% | C 4.7% | P 4.4%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (JUN) A -1.3% | P -2.8%
CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate A 5.7% | P 5.9%
CNY NBS Press Conference
0600 GBP Average Earnings index +Bonus (MAY) A | C -0.4% | 1.0%
0600 GBP Claimant count change A | C -0.4% | P 1.0%
0600 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (MAY) A | C -234k | P 6k
0600 GBP Unemployment rate (MAY) A | C 4.2% | P 3.9%
0600 GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
0900 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (MAY) A | P 2.9b
1045 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
1115 GBP BoE MPC Gov Bailey Speaks
1145 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JUL) A | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1145 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A | P 0.25%
1145 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
1145 EUR ECB Interest rate Decision A | C 0.00 | P 0.00
1230 USD Core Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A | C 5.0% | P 12.4%
1230 USD Philly FED Manufacturing Index (JUL) A | C 20.0 | P 27.5
1230 USD Philly Fed Employment (JUL) A | P -4.3
1230 USD Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A | C 5.0% | P 17.7%
1230 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (MAY) A | P 49.0b
1230 EUR ECB Press Conference
1400 USD Business Inventories MoM (MAY) A | C -2.3% | P -1.3%
1400 USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (MAY) A | P -1.5%
1510 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2000 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (MAY) A | P -128.4b
2230 NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) A | P 39.7
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2560 area the market dipped to the 1.2550 area initially before starting a slow rise through to the 1.2580 level to range through to the London session before again starting a steady rise, this time it tested steadily through the 1.2600 level and through to 1.2630 before pausing for a short period before moving through into the NYK session testing above the 1.2540 area and finally touching the 1.2650 before starting a slow drift back through to the end of London to then range between the 1.2580-90 level.
- JPY: A quiet move through the Asian session ranging between the 107.20-30 levels through to the grey hour and a steady drift through the early London session testing initially to the 107.00 level eventually breaking through to hold the 106.90 area for the opening in the NYK session and then running again to test through the 106.70 before finding some firmer buyers to turn the market back higher to range quietly into the 106.90 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.6970 level and after a stuttering start pushed quickly through to the 0.6990 area before drifting for a short period and repeating the same type of move testing to above the 0.7000 level drifting and off again this time to test to the 0.7020 level before drifting through to the London session to base around the 0.6990 through to late morning in London before pushing high in a steady run through into the NYK session pushing through the 0.7020 level and eventually peaking just below the 0.7040 area before dropping back for the London close and running quietly just above the 70 cents level to the close.
- EUR: Opening just off its lows the market pushed steadily to the 1.1410 level from the 1.1395 area and then running higher again for the Tokyo fix to test the 1.1420 area before drifting off through to the lows of the day testing to just below the 1.1395 area for the move into the grey hour, London saw quick buying and a move through to the 1.1440 level to range for the most part through into the NYK session holding around the level with a light attempt above the 1.1450 area and quickly dropping back after the failure to hold the 1.1400 line to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD New Home Sales MoM A | P -4.2%
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (JUL) A -6.1% | P 6.3%
JPY BoJ Outlook Report YoY
JPY BoJ Interest rate decision A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.1%
GBP CPI YoY (JUN) A 0.6% | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
GBP CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.1% | C -0.2% | P 0.0%
GBP PPI Input MoM (JUN) A 2.4% | C 3.0 | P 0.3% | R 0.9%
GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
USD Export Price Index MoM (JUN) A 1.4% | C 0.8% | P 0.5% | R 0.4%
USD Import Price Index MoM (JUN) A 1.4% | C 1.0% | P 1.0% | R 0.8%
USAD Empire State Manufacturing Index (JUN) A 17.2% | C 10.00 | P -0.20
CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (MAY) A 10.7% | C 9.5% | P -28.5% | R -27.9%
USD Industrial Production MoM (JUN) A 5.4% | C 4.3% | P 1.4%
USD Industrial Production YoY (JUN) A -10.82% | P -15.27% | R -15.36%
CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BoC Rate Statement
CAD BoC Internet Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -7.493m | C -2.098m | P 5.654m
CAD BoC Press Conference
USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD Beige Book
Best Regards
Andy
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