Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.27 | EURUSD 1.13833 | AUDUSD 0.69718 | NZDUSD 0.65312 | USDCAD 1.3574 | USDCHF 0.94564| GBPUSD 1.25535 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.13938 | 1.13777
USDJPY 107.359 | 107.224
GBPUSD 1.25709 | 1.25499
USDCHF 0.94609 | 0.94478
AUDUSD 0.69900 | 0.69667
NZDUSD 0.65476 | 0.6535
USDCAD 1.35814 | 1.35672
EURCHF 1.07683 | 1.0765
EURGBP 0.90656 | 0.90600
EURJPY 122.275 | 122.049
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise through the session opening around the 1.2555 and pushing slowly through to the 1.2570 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside weakness through to the 1.2600 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2650 and 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2550 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear, with stronger bids on any attempt towards the 1.2450-00 area.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.30 and remaining in a range around the level until late in the session were the USDJPY pushed to the 107.20 area for the move into the grey hour, topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stops appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: A steady push from the opening around the 0.6970 area and pushing through to the 0.6990 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers remain just in front of the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1380 level and slowly rising through into early Tokyo to test above the 1.1390 area before dipping back to the opening level and repeating the slow rise to test the highs for a second time for the move into the grey hour, Downside see’s light bids through to the 1.1300 level with some congestive bids in the area before weak stops appear on a dip through the 1.1280 area and opening up a small amount of weakness through to the 1.1250 before opening to the 1.1200 level and stronger bids through to the 1.1180 with weak stops through the level. Topside stops likely on a strong push through the 1.1420 area and opening some weakness through to the 1.1480 area where stronger offers are likely to continue through to the 1.1520 areas.
Overnight News
USD:
Vacant parking lots sow trouble for $4b of Muni Bonds – BBG
USD/CNY:
Trump administration turns up pressure on China on several fronts – DJ
NZD:
NZ manufacturing returned to expansion in Jun – BBG
JPY:
Japan to look into eliminating bank-brokerage firewall – NIKKEI
Japan funds sell record amount of US agency debt to buy stocks. – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) A 56.3 | P 39.7
0600 GBP Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A | P 12.0%
0830 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
0830 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
0900 EUR Eurozone Core CPI YoY (JUN) A | C 0.8% | P 0.8%
0900 EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (JUN) A | C 0.3% | -0.1%
0900 EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (JUN) A | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
1000 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1230 USD Building Permits (JUN) A | C 1.290m | P 1.216m
1230 USD Housing Starts (JUN) A | C 1.169m | P 0.974m
1230 CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 8.5% | P -21.6%
1400 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment A | C 79.0 | P 78.1
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 258
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet run into the Tokyo session around the opening 1.2590 area, Tokyo saw USD buying for the fix and Cable dipped down to the 1.2580 areas and the start of a steady drift lower through to the 1.2550 area for the move into the London session ranging around the 1.2550 area, the market eventually dipped to its lows just above the 1.2520 area and found some buyers and a tight channelled rally through to the 1.2600 level with very little pause and the end of London saw the market make the high for the day around the 1.2625 level, without London the market fell quickly back to the 1.2550 area before holding steady around the area to the close.
- JPY: Drifting from the opening around the 106.95 area to push lightly to the low 106.80’s before recovering once the Tokyo fix was over with and testing through to the 107.00 area and then ranging around the opening level, nothing special on the move through into the London session pushing slowly towards the 107.00 level again and eventually breaking through to push towards the 107.20 level only to struggle through to the close of London, London out of the way saw a rally form with the market pushing through to late in the session testing the 107.40 area before settling back for the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7010 area moving through into the Tokyo fix with a quick dip through to the 0.6990 areas before the release of the Ozzie employment numbers with a quick spike to make the highs around the 0.7015 area before dropping back again and slipping through into the 0.6980’s and ranging around the 0.6990 level through into London before again dropping lower through to the 0.6970 area into late morning before starting to rise again for the move into the NYK session, NYK picked up the rally around the 0.6990 area and steadily pushed through to the opening level before dropping quickly back to make new lows into the 0.6965 area before holding quietly around the 0.6970 to the close.
- EUR: Moving from the opening level quietly through into the Tokyo session challenging the 1.1420 area before drifting through the session into the grey hour testing the 1.1390 area, finally dipping to the 1.1380 before starting to recover for the move into the NYK session returning to the opening levels and then pushing through on a second rally to the 1.1440 level high for the day, a steep decline as US numbers helped the USD higher with the market testing the 1.1370 for the low of the day.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD CPI QoQ (Q2) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P 0.8%
NZD CPI YoY (Q2) A 1.5% | C 1.5% | P 2.5%
AUD New Home Sales MoM A 87.2% | P -4.2%
AUD Employment Change (JUN) A 210.8k | C 112.5k | P -222.7k
AUD Full employment Change (JUN) A -38.1k | P -89.1k
AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 7.4% | C 7.4% | P 7.1%
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (JUN) A -3.1% | C -3.3% | P -6.3%
CNY GDP QoQ (Q2) A 11.5% | C 9.6% | P -9.3%
CNY GDP YoY (Q2) A 3.2% | C 2.5% | P -6.8%
CNY Chinese GDP YTD YoY (Q2) A -1.6% | P -6.8%
CNY Industrial Production (YoY (JUN) A 4.8% | C 4.7% | P 4.4%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (JUN) A -1.3% | P -2.8%
CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate A 5.7% | P 5.9%
CNY NBS Press Conference
GBP Average Earnings index +Bonus (MAY) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | 1.0%
GBP Claimant count change A -28.1k | C -250.0k | P 566.4k
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (MAY) A -125k | C -234k | P 6k
GBP Unemployment rate (MAY) A 3.9% | C 4.2% | P 3.9%
GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (MAY) A 9.4b | P 2.9b
GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
GBP BoE MPC Gov Bailey Speaks
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JUL) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
EUR ECB Interest rate Decision A 0.00% | C 0.00 | P 0.00
USD Core Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A 7.3% | C 5.0% | P 12.4%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 1,300k | C 1,250k | P 1,310k
USD Philly FED Manufacturing Index (JUL) A 24.1 | C 20.0 | P 27.5
USD Philly Fed Employment (JUL) A 20.1 | P -4.3
USD Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A 7.5% | C 5.0% | P 17.7%
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (MAY) A 22.41b | P 49.0b
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Business Inventories MoM (MAY) A -2.3% | C -2.3% | P -1.3% | R -1.4%
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (MAY) A -1.6% | P -1.5%
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (MAY) A 127.0b | P -128.4b | R -130.8b
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.