Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.034 | EURUSD 1.14281 | AUDUSD 0.69962 | NZDUSD 0.65582 | USDCAD 1.35803 | USDCHF 0.93865 | GBPUSD 1.2568 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.14460 | 1.14095
USDJPY 107.557 | 107.014
GBPUSD 1.25742 | 1.25198
USDCHF 0.94038 | 0.93843
AUDUSD 0.70025 | 0.69737
NZDUSD 0.65605 | 0.6540
USDCAD 1.36010 | 1.35752
EURCHF 1.07375 | 10.728
EURGBP 0.91230 | 0.90932
EURJPY 122.769 | 122.246
For Today
- GBP: Opening a little weaker and running through to just below the 1.2560 area before pushing through into the Tokyo session filling the gap on the charts and testing just above the 1.2570 area into the Tokyo fix, once the fix was over the market absorbed the weekends news of deflation and such based on safe haven buying of Gilts Cable started to drop back in an ever quickening move testing through to the 1.2530 level then faltering and continuing through to the 1.2520 area before finding sufficient bids to turn the market for the move into the grey hour, Topside weakness through to the 1.2600 level if there is any momentum to be found, stronger offers appear around the 1.2650 and 1.2700 level and those congestive offers are likely to continue through to the 1.2750 area before weakening a little until the 1.2800 level and the highs from last month come into view and break out stops likely on a strong push through the level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2520 area and weak stops likely to see the market continuing to fall through to the 1.2500 area before bids start to appear, with stronger bids on any attempt towards the 1.2450-00 area.
- JPY: Opening a little higher the market moved through into the Tokyo session filling the gap and moving of the 107.05 area in a steep rise through to the 107.55 area after the numbers before dipping back to hold just below the 107.40 area for the move into the grey hour, topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stop appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Opening a little lower and testing initially through the 0.6990 area the market move quickly back as early Tokyo buyers took the Oz back to the 70 cents level and pushed towards the 0.7005 area before JPY numbers saw the AUD forced lower against the USD and testing the 0.6975 level quickly with a limited recovery through to the 0.6985 area for the grey hour, Topside offers remain just in front of the 0.7020 level the market is likely to see increasing congestion through the 0.7040-60 level before opening up for stronger offers into the 0.7080-0.7100 level and possibly stronger stops close too. Downside bids light through to the 0.6930 before some stronger bids start to move in however, while they may have some strength the numbers are limited and a clearance will open weakness down through into the 0.6840-50 area where limited sentimental bids hold sway with stronger bids then appearing on any test of the 0.6800-0.6780 area before weak stops appear.
- EUR: Opening lower and testing through to just above the 1.1410 level the market recovered for the move into the Tokyo session and tested lightly above the 1.1440 level with offers curtailing any further gains and drifting back to range around the 1.1420 area to the grey hour, Downside see’s light bids through to the 1.1300 level with some congestive bids in the area before weak stops appear on a dip through the 1.1280 area and opening up a small amount of weakness through to the 1.1250 before opening to the 1.1200 level and stronger bids through to the 1.1180 with weak stops through the level. Topside offers around the 1.1450 area and then opening to some weakness through to the 1.1480 area where stronger offers are likely to continue through to the 1.1520 areas and beyond.
Overnight News
USD:
US Companies lose hope for quick rebound from Covid-19 – DJ
CNY:
Nine Chinese financial institutions with 1T Yuan in assets are nationalized on the same day – ZeroHedge
EUR:
New EU Proposal cuts recover fund grant to 400b Euro’s – BBG
New EU proposal boosts recovery fund loans to 350b – BBG
No sign of consensus at EU leader’s dinner – BBG
Lagarde favours ambitious EU aid plan over fast one – RTR’s
EU Turns up the heat on budget hardliners in stimulus fight – BBG
EU leaders struggled to close ranks on the main elements of a multi-Billion Euro plan to rebuild their economies – RTR’s
AUD:
Australia budget blowout to hit post war record amid second wave – BBG
GBP:
Treasury’s austerity hawks risk pushing the UK into a Japanese style deflation trap – TEL
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A -0.42t | P -0.60t | R -0.59t
JPY Exports YoY (JUN) A -26.2% | C -24.9% | P -28.3%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY Trade Balance (JUN) A -268.8b | C -35.8b | P -838.2b
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
0600 EUR German PPI MoM (JUN) A | C 0.2% | P -0.4%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow Asian session with the market slowly rising through to the grey hour testing through the 1.2570 level before drifting through early London to test back to the 1.2540 area and a week bounce to the 1.2565 area only to drift back again and hold the 1.2540 area and the NYK session quickly selling off to test towards the 1.2510 level and only into the London close did the market start a steady recovery through to just above the previous 1.2570 area high to test the 1.2575 area into the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.30 area and holding in a tight range through to midsession in Tokyo before starting a steady drift from the high around the 107.35 area to test into early London pushing at the 107.10 area before ranging around the 107.20 level through into the NYK session, unable to recover the opening level the market again started to drift through into the run to the close testing to the 106.95 area before recovering a little to above the 107.00 for the close.
- AUD: Rising through to the 0.6990 level from the opening around the 0.6970 lows to run into the London session ranging around the 0.6985 area with occasional pushes above the 0.6990 area but never really threatening the 0.7000 area, the move through to the NYK session saw the market drifting back to the 0.6975 level and just off the lows only to push higher on the run to the London close, NYK were steady buyers off the 75 level and slowly eased through to the highs and once through triggered some light stops on the move through the 70 cents level topping out just short of the 0.7005 area to dip back a touch for the close.
- EUR: A quiet Asian session with the market basing along the opening level through into the London session, opening around the 1.1380 area and rising into early Tokyo testing above the 1.1390 area the market more or less continued holding that range through to the London opening where it pushed off the 1.1380 area for the last time and steadily pushed through to the 1.1430 area to hold quietly through to just before the NYK opening in the area, NYK took the market to the 1.1440 area and then spent much of the session holding around the level to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Business NZ PMI (JUN) A 56.3 | P 39.7
GBP Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A 12.0% | P -12.0% | R -18.0%
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
EUR Eurozone Core CPI YoY (JUN) A 0.8% | C 0.8% | P 0.9%
EUR Eurozone CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | -0.1%
EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (JUN) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.3%
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
USD Building Permits (JUN) A 1.241m | C 1.290m | P 1.216m
USD Housing Starts (JUN) A 1.186m | C 1.169m | P 0.974m | R 1.011m
CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (MAY) A 5.7% | C 8.5% | P -21.6% | R 21.4%
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment A 73.2 | C 79.0 | P 78.1
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 253 | P 258
Best Regards
Andy
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