Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.276 | EURUSD 1.14476 | AUDUSD 0.7017 | NZDUSD 0.65727 | USDCAD 1.35342 | USDCHF 0.93884 | GBPUSD 1.26619 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.14700 | 1.14283
USDJPY 107.289 | 107.098
GBPUSD 1.26847 | 1.26537
USDCHF 0.93979 | 0.93818
AUDUSD 0.70343 | 0.70146
NZDUSD 0.65888 | 0.65648
USDCAD 1.35363 | 1.35119
EURCHF 1.07574 | 1.0739
EURGBP 0.90483 | 0.90329
EURJPY 122.920 | 122.629
For Today
- GBP: Quiet session for the Cable to test steadily through to the 1.2685 area and then holding quietly around the 1.2675 area until late in the session before starting a slow drift through to the 1.2650 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers increasing into the 1.2700 level and congestive offers likely to be mixed with weak stops on a break through of the level with the congestion then increasing through to the 1.2750-1.2800 level with strong break out stops just beyond. Downside bids light through to the 1.2520 level with strong bids likely through the 1.2500 level and weak stops likely to be mixed with some congestive bids until the 1.2450 level where bids lighten through to the 1.2400 area.
- JPY: A quiet range for the USDJPY with the market drifting from the opening just above the 107.25 area to push through to the Tokyo fix holding just off the opening level and quickly dipping through to just below the 107.15 area to define the range for the day with the market contained until the final hour to test the highs again for the grey hour, , topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stop appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Rising from the opening after making the low just above the 0.7010 level and then pushing through into the Tokyo session testing towards the 0.7035 level and ranging for the most part around the 0.7025 area in quiet trading with a drift into the grey hour testing through the 0.7020 area. Topside offers into the 0.7040-60 area with topside offers likely to increase on a move through to the 0.7080-0.7100 area where stronger offers are likely to slow any attempt higher for the moment, downside bids light through to the 0.6920-0.6880 level before stops are likely to appear and open the downside to another period of weakness.
- EUR: As talks continued late into the night between EU leaders over the 750b Euro pandemic funding the market slowly pushed through to the 1.1460 area, the agreement finally came and the market sparked to the 1.1470 level and immediately dropped back to the 1.1430 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1480-1.1500 level and possibly continuing through to the 1.1520 area before weak stops appear and possible break out buyers appear for a move higher, downside bids light through to the 1.1350 area and increasing into 1.1300 level with weak stops through the 1.1280 area and likely weakness to the 1.1240 area before stronger bids start to appear.
Overnight News
EUR:
ECB’s Schnabel: Balance of risks is still tilted to downside – BBG
European leaders started negotiating a pandemic crisis plan on Friday, they’re still at it – WPT
EU Leaders reach deal on Covid-19 recovery fund worth EUR750b – BBG
EU president Charles Michel tweets deal on fund – BBG
GBP:
BoE’s Haldane: UK inflation should pick up next year – BBG
Haldane: Latest labour figure understate unemployment – BBG
Haldane: BoE still has room, is reviewing case for lower rates – BBG
Haldane: There’s less room for monetary manoeuvre after crisis – BBG
Haldane: Unemployment poses biggest threat to economic recovery – BBG
Haldane: If more monetary policy needs to be done, it will be – BBG
Haldane: Now see output drop at 20% vs. 25% in May – BBG
Haldane: Agents are reporting strong rebound in June – BBG
Haldane: Roughly half of output drop has been clawed back – BBG
Haldane: Consumer spending recovering faster than May scenario – BBG
Haldane: Long term economic scarring inevitable – BBG
Haldane: Greater than usual uncertainty in outlook – BBG
AUD:
RBA Reiterates negative rates remain extraordinarily unlikely and strategy
Australia extends job keeper wage subsidy, jobless benefit – BBG
Australia to shoot itself in the foot by mulling ban on Chinese apps – Global Times
RBA’s Lowe: Have turned the corner on jobs, but path ahead will be bumpy
Lowe: Unemployment rate likely to increase further, even with recovery underway
Lowe: Board reviewed some alternative monetary policy options in July meeting decided on no change
Lowe: Board has not ruled out future changes to policy if necessary
Lowe: No Need to intervene to push down AUD which is in line with fundamentals
Lowe: No change to boards view that negative interest rates in Australia are extraordinarily unlikely
Lowe: Monetary financing of fiscal policy is not an option under consideration in Australia
Lowe: Government should use its balance sheet to smooth out pandemic shock
Lowe: Australian government able to finance itself in bond market, on very favourable terms
Lowe: Govt. borrowing for fiscal stimulus manageable, affordable and the right thing to do
Lowe: dealing with debt is something for the future, to be done through economic growth
Lowe: RBA Balance sheet has expanded to AUD280bln, up from AUD180b prior to pandemic
Lowe: Banks have borrowed AUD25b from term funding facility, expected to rise further
Lowe: Market understands RBA prepared to use balance sheet in whatever quantity needed to maintain 3yr yield target
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY National Core CPI YoY (JUN) A 0.0% | C -0.1% | P -0.2%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe speaks
1230 CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 12.0% | P -22.0%
1230 CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (JUN) A | C 0.1% | P 0.1%
1230 CAD Retail Sales MoM (MAY) A | C 20.0% | P -26.4%
1300 EUR German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks
1330 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
2030 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -8.322m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow rise from a low opening saw the gap filled and the market rising through to the 1.2575 before ranging tightly through into the Tokyo session and then a steady drift through to the 1.2520 area for the move into the grey hour and a slow recovery started through to the NYK session with the market pushing steadily through to the 1.2600 level before pausing then running through to the 1.2635 level before ranging through to the London close around the level, a slow push through to the 1.2665 level and quiet range around the 1.2660 area to the close.
- JPY Opening a touch higher the market saw some liquidity issues in the first few minutes before settling back and filling the minor gap to make the low of the day around the 107.05 area before starting a quick push through to the 107.55 level for the Tokyo fix, the market dipped back to below the 107.40 area and then drift through to the London session testing the 107.25 levels and moving back to the 107.10 opening levels for the move into the NYK session ranging around the level until the end of London before slowly pushing to the 107.30 level for the close.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening through to the 0.6990 area and eventually recovering the closing level on Friday saw the market moving into the Tokyo session holding the 70 cents level before dropping off quickly through to the 0.6975 area for the low of the day into midsession in Tokyo, the move through to the grey hour saw a slow recovery through to the 0.6990 and then continuing into the NYK session to the 0.7005 area, the move to the end of the London session saw the market pushing through the 0.7010 level and after a brief dip moved to the close pushing the highs again.
- EUR: On going talks between leaders over pandemic funding continues to see nations set against each other with the talks today ending short as Germany and France walk away from each other as talks again seem to boil over, and so the market remained a little choppy throughout, opening around the 1.1430 level dipping from the opening to the 1.1410 area, Tokyo opening took the market back to Fridays closed and the charts back to being full, midsession again saw the market back to the lows from the 1.1440 level and holding the base line through to late in the session before starting a steady rise as first the Europeans and then London session moved through to test into the mid 1.1460’s and ranging around the highs through to NYK before again dropping back again as the talks broke up with no resolution again, the market made new lows just holding on to the 1.1400 level bouncing and then running back to the opening level to slowly rise to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A -0.42t | P -0.60t | R -0.59t
JPY Exports YoY (JUN) A -26.2% | C -24.9% | P -28.3%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY Trade Balance (JUN) A -268.8b | C -35.8b | P -838.2b
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
EUR German PPI MoM (JUN) A 0.0% | C 0.2% | P -0.4%
Best Regards
Andy
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