Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 107.158 | EURUSD 1.15701 | AUDUSD 0.7141 | NZDUSD 0.66618 | USDCAD 1.34178 | USDCHF 0.92865 | GBPUSD 1.27337 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows  

EURUSD               1.15780 | 1.15645

USDJPY                107.195 | 107.107

GBPUSD               1.27397 | 1.27237

USDCHF               0.93081 | 0.92855

AUDUSD              0.71473 | 0.71333

NZDUSD              0.66753 | 0.66449

USDCAD               1.34209 | 1.34027

EURCHF               1.07549 | 1.07544

EURGBP               0.90923 | 0.90825

EURJPY                124.055 | 123.929

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A very quiet session with the market ranging around the 1.2730 level and ranging from the 1.1740 through to the 1.1725 into the grey hour, Topside congested around the 1.2740-60 area and likely to continue through to the 1.2800 level with weak offers around the level and weak stops on a test through the level and finding stronger offers on the 1.28 handle through the sentimental levels, downside light through the 1.2700 area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.2680 area and opening a deeper run to the 1.2600 level.
  • JPY: Dipping to the 107.10 area on the opening the market quickly moved back to the 107.20 level for the move into the Tokyo session before slipping slowly back through to test the lows for the move into grey hour, topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside light through to the 106.50 area and possible short term buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stop appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
  • AUD: Ranging through the session around the opening 0.7140 area and unable to push the 0.7150 level and was well short of the 0.7130 area on each move lower finally seeing a slower push towards the 0.7150 area for the move into the grey hour, topside congested through the 0.7180-0.7220 area before weak stops appear and the market opens to a run towards the 73 cents level with minimal offers through the 0.7250 area. Downside bids light through the 71 cents area with some weak bids through the 0.7050 area and again in 0.7000 level before weak stops open a quick test through to the 0.6950 before stronger bids start to appear.
  • EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with the range only just outside of 10 pips with the market opening around the 1.1570 area and holding for the most part in the 1.1565-75 area before finally pushing through the topside for the move into the grey hour, , Topside offers through the 1.1580 levels and into the 1.1600 in particular, offers likely to continue with weak stops on a push through the 1.1620 however, the market is likely to find stronger offers again filtering through on any push to the 1.1650 area and through to the 1.1680 area in particular, downside bids weak through the 1.1500 level and weak stops likely to be close to the area and a quick move through to the 1.1400 a possibility with limited bids until that level.

 

Overnight News

 

CNY:

The relentless rains flooding central and southern China have displaced millions, and losses worth Billions – Nikkei

Flooding imperils huge China Dam – DJ

China could consider US HK consulate cuts – BBG

CAD:

S&P reaffirms Canada’s AAA rating but warns Ottawa rising deficits could lead to downgrade – GLO

USD:

US says SF Consulate has FBI wanted China researcher – BBG

Trump possible could close more Chinese diplomatic sites

Senate GOP starts to unveil coronavirus proposals amid deep discord – Politico

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

AUD       NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A -15 | P -11 | R -12

0600      EUR       GfK German Consumer Climate (AUG) A | C -5.0 | P -9.8

0900      EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

1000      GBP        CBI Industrial Trends Orders A | C -38 | P -58

1100      GBP        MPC Member Haskel Speaks

1230      USD       Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,300k | P 1,300k

2245      NZD       Trade Balance MoM (JUN) A | P 1.253m

2245      NZD       Trade Balance YoY (JUN) A | P -1.330m

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market making early lows around the 1.2715 level and then steadily pushing through into the Tokyo session testing above the 1.2740 level, however, it was short lived and the market slowly drifted through to the London session testing through to the 1.2710 area again and then dropping quickly in early morning to test to the 1.2660 level a minor bounce and then testing to the low of the day just through the 1.2645 level before starting a slow steady climb through to the 1.2725 area again for the move into the NYK session and a slow climb from there and a long run to the close holding around the 1.2735 area.
  • JPY: A steady climb through the day with the Asian session seeing less movement, rising from the opening after a choppy opening to test to the 106.90 level before slipping back through to the 106.70 area and the low of the day, the move through into London was quiet however, London open saw some steady buying through to the 107.05 area before drifting for a short period into the NYK opening where system buying moved through the market to test through to the 107.30 level before drifting a little for the short run to the close.
  • AUD: A little more movement for the AUD with the market moving through into the Tokyo session testing above the 107.40 level and then in an ever decreasing range around that level moving quickly through towards the 0.7170 level into the London opening and immediately dropping back to make the low of the day in strong profit taking to test the 0.7110 level and a short pause before starting a strong steady rise this time pushing through into the NYK session extending the high and testing through into the 0.7180 area before failing and dipping back to range around the 0.7140 level to the close.
  • EUR: Asian session saw limited movement, dipping to the 1.1515 area before ranging around the 1.1535 level through the Tokyo session testing just short of the 1.1550 level and dipping a little into the grey hour and dipping further to make the lows in early London testing to the 1.1505 area before starting a recovery as the agreement for the funding for Coronavirus seems to have helped the EUR somewhat running through to the 1.1575 pausing for a short period before running a second time and driving through to the 1.1600 level, ranging around the 1.1595 area but slowly slipping back to finish around the 1.1570 area.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

JPY         Services PMI A 0.4% | P 45.0

AUD       Retail Sales MoM A 2.4% | P 16.9%

CAD       Core CPI YoY (JUN) A 1.1% | P 0.7%

CAD       Core CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.4% | P -0.1%

CAD       CPI MoM (JUN) A 0.8% | C 0.4% | P 0.3%

EUR       German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks

USD       Existing home sales MoM (JUN) A 24.5% | C 24.5% | P -9.7%

USD       Existing home sales (JUN) A 4.72m | C 4.78m | P 3.91m

USD       Crude oil inventories A 4.892m | C -2.088m | P -7493m

EUR       ECB’s De Guindos Speaks

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.