Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.853 | EURUSD 1.15963 | AUDUSD 0.70985 | NZDUSD 0.66366 | USDCAD 1.34078 | USDCHF 0.92544 | GBPUSD 1.27405 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.16213 | 1.1590
USDJPY 106.893 | 106.363
GBPUSD 1.27736 | 1.27287
USDCHF 0.92550 | 0.9238
AUDUSD 0.71242 | 0.70791
NZDUSD 0.66519 | 0.66240
USDCAD 1.34192 | 1.33833
EURCHF 1.07366 | 1.07264
EURGBP 0.91161 | 0.90975
EURJPY 124.044 | 123.433
For Today
- GBP: Japanese bank holiday limits liquidity in Cable, from the opening the market held around the 1.2735 area and having tested lightly through the 1.2730 area the market rose through to the 1.2770 area before drifting back steadily through to the grey hour holding around the 1.2740 area, Topside congested through to the 1.2800 level with weak stops likely on a push through the level for a move through to the 1.2850 area before stronger sentimental offers appear and likely increasing through into the 1.2900 level, downside light through the 1.2700 area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.2680 area and opening a deeper run to the 1.2600 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.85 level the market moved through into the Tokyo period to quickly hit stop losses on a run to the 106.50 area before pausing for a short period and increasing the loss through to the 106.35 area before finding some weak buying for the move into the grey hour, most news a consequence of the Pompeo release and both a weaker USD and safe haven Yen buying driving the market. topside offers continue through to the 108.20-25 area before weak stops are likely to appear and the possibility of pushing through to the 108.50 area before hitting some congestion, weak congestion through to the 108.80 level and stronger offers likely to appear for any move through the 109.00-20 level. , Downside buying through to the 106.00 level where bids are likely to increase, a break through to the 105.90 areas is likely to see weak stop appearing, limited bids through to the 105.50 area and increasing through to the 104.80.
- AUD: Rising from the opening through to the 0.7110 level from just below the figure level soon found itself back at the opening area again before rising on a second move through to the 0.7120 area before struggling in a limited market and drifting back and running through to the 0.7080 area before finding some bids for the move into the grey hour, topside congested through the 0.7180-0.7220 area before weak stops appear and the market opens to a run towards the 73 cents level with minimal offers through the 0.7250 area. Downside bids light through to the 0.7050 area and again in 0.7000 level before weak stops open a quick test through to the 0.6950 before stronger bids start to appear.
- EUR: A slow rise from the opening lows testing from the 1.1595 area to push lightly above the 1.1600 level and then running a second time to test to the 1.1620 area before drifting through the balance of the session to fall back to the opening area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1600 in particular, offers likely to continue with weak stops on a push through the 1.1620 however, the market is likely to find stronger offers again filtering through on any push to the 1.1650 area and through to the 1.1680 area in particular, downside bids weak through the 1.1500 level and weak stops likely to be close to the area and a quick move through to the 1.1400 a possibility with limited bids until that level.
Overnight News
NZD:
Strong Kiwi increases pressure on RBNZ to deliver more stimulus – BBG
USD:
Pompeo attacks China’s Totalitarian ideology as tensions soar – BBG
Pompeo: Pres Nixon was prophetic when he said he feared he had created a Frankenstein by opening world to China’s Communist party – BBG
Pompeo: Chinese leader Xi Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology – BBG
Pompeo: World’s free nations must induce China to change more creative and assertive ways – BBG
Pompeo: Chinese Consulate in Houston was a hub of spying and intellectual property theft – BBG
Pompeo: One NATO ally hasn’t stood up for freedom in Hong Kong because it fears Beijing will restrict access to China’s market – BBG
Pompeo: Securing freedoms from Chinese communist party is the mission of our time – BBG
FBI interviewing Chinese Visa holders across US about possible military ties – Justice Dept
AUD:
Meet the RBA boss giving us the green light to turn the budget red – SYH
CNY:
China asks US to close Chengdu consulate – RTR’s
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
NZD Trade Balance MoM (JUN) A 426m | P 1.253m | R 1.286m
NZD Trade Balance YoY (JUN) A -1,200m | P -1.330m | R -1,290m
0600 GBP Retail Sales MoM (JUN) A | C 8% | P 12.0%
0600 GBP Retail Sales YoY (JUN) A | C -6.4% | P -13.1%
0730 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (JUL) A | C 48.0 | P 45.2
0730 EUR German Services PMI (JUL) A | C 50.5 | P 47.3
080 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (JUL) A | 50.0 | {P 47.4
0800 EUR Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (JUL) A | C 51.1 | P 48.5
0800 EUR Eurozone Services PMI (JUL) A | C 51.0 | P 48.3
0830 GBP Composite PMI A | P 47.7
0830 GBP Manufacturing PMI A | P 50.1
0830 GBP Servicing PMI A | P 47.1
1345 USD Manufacturing PMI (JUL) A | C 51.5 | P 49.8
1345 USD Markit Composite PMI (JUL) A | P 47.9
1345 USD Services PMI (JUL) A | C 51.0 | P 47.9
1400 USD New Homes Sales (JUN) A | C 700k | P 676k
1400 USD New Homes Sales MoM (JUN) A | C 4.0% | P 16.6%
1700 UZD Baker Hughes Total Oil Rig A | P 253
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet Asian session for the most part with the market dipping in thin trading around the opening to the 1.2725 level and then ranging to the 1.2740 level through to late in the session before making a slight push through to the 1.2745 area before moving into the grey hour holding the area and waiting for early London to take the market through the 1.2750 through to the London official opening for a quick dip back to the lows and steady push through the 1.2725 area to test the 1.2710 on the first run and then the 1.2700 figure level rising a little then dipping through into the NYK session testing the figure level again and breaking through to test through to the 1.2675 level, the move through to the London close saw the market in a tight channelled rise through to the 1.2760 level before drifting through the balance of the session to the close.
- JPY: A very quiet session through to the NYK session before waking up, opening in a thin market testing to the 107.10 level and then generally trading around the 107.15 area through to the NYK session unable to break the 107.20 area to the topside until NYK and only breaching the 107.10 level into the London opening once before recovering to the 107.15 area again, NYK took the market too the high for the day just above the 107.22 area before dipping through to the London close testing the 106.80 area before slowing its descent, the market tested to just above the 106.70 area before rising for the close.
- AUD: A limited rise late in the Asian session, initially holding around the 0.7140 area with limited pushes towards the 0.7150 and very light selling into the 0.7130’s, the move through to the end of the session saw the market rising into the grey hour and pushing from the London opening to test above the 0.7160 level for the high of the day then a steady drift through to the NYK opening testing the 0.7090 recovering to the 0.7115 area and drifting to finish the day below the 71 cents level.
- EUR: Quiet run through to midsession in Tokyo holding the 1.1570 area before slowly rising through to the grey hour ranging around the 1.1590 area and a quiet range around the 1.1590 level, the move through into the NYK session saw the market running through to the 1.1540 level for the low of the day before reversing quickly and the push through the 1.1590 level saw some weak stops to trigger a move through to the 1.1610 area a pause before running again to test above the 1.1625 area and a steady stepped drift to below the 1.1600 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A -15 | P -11 | R -12
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (AUG) A -0.3 | C -5.0 | P -9.8 | R -9.4
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders A -46 | C -38 | P -58
GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 1,416k | C 1,300k | P 1,300k
Best Regards
Andy
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