Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.492 | EURUSD 1.17 401 | AUDUSD 0.71432 | NZDUSD 0.65851 | USDCAD 1.3300 | USDCHF 0.91682 | GBPUSD 1.30475 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17471 | 1.17115
USDJPY 106.798 | 106.443
GBPUSD 1.30645 | 1.30174
USDCHF 0.91969 | 0.91673
AUDUSD 0.71506 | 0.71091
NZDUSD 0.65782 | 0.65240
USDCAD 1.33457 | 1.32952
EURCHF 1.07750 | 1.07629
EURGBP 0.89992 | 0.8991
EURJPY 125.147 | 124.957
For Today
- GBP: Tokyo opening saw the high of the day just through the 1.3060 level and then a steady decline through the session to test to the 1.3020 level before basing along the level through to the grey hour trading around the 1.3025 area. downside bids into the 1.3000 area with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.2950 area to open a deeper move through to the 1.2850-00 area before stronger bids start to appear, topside offers light back through the 1.3100 level however, congestion there through to the 1.3200 level with strong offers likely around that area and then corresponding stops.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.50 level and struggling through to the 106.45 and the move into the Tokyo session with several waves taking the market steadily through to the 106.75 area for the move into the grey hour, Downside weakness through to the 104.20 level where strong bids are likely to appear to slow any dips, a break of the 103.80 level will likely see some stronger stops appearing and the market running through to the 103.50 area before stronger bids reappear, topside offers congested around the 107.00 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 107.50 area before weak stops through the 107.60 area trigger a small move to the 108.00 level and stronger offers.
- AUD: No help from the Japanese today, running from the opening around the 0.7140 area to and testing initially through to the 0.7150 area for the move through to midsession in Tokyo before dipping quickly and basing through to the grey hour holding the 0.7110 level, Topside offers through the 0.7200 level are likely to be light before increasing into the 0.7240-60 level with very limited weakness on any approach to the 73 cents level before stops appear on a break through the 0.7320-25 area. Downside bids into the 71 cents area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.7080 area and weakness there through to a very congested 0.7000-0.6950 level.
- EUR: Early high around the 1.1745 level after opening around the 1.1735 area however, the move into the Tokyo session saw a slow steady selloff through to the 1.1710 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.1800-20 level with weak stops likely to be very light with limited congestion until closer to the 1.1900 area and stronger offers to the 1.1920 before large stops are likely to appear. Downside bids light through to the 1.1700 area with weak stops on a dip through the 1.1680 level and likely to quickly dip through to the 1.1600 level before weak bids appear to slow the move.
Overnight News
AUD:
Australia households spooked as confidence collapses on Victoria – BBG
Tangara School for girls’ outbreak in Sydney the tip of the iceberg for NSW – ABC
NZD:
NZ imports slumped in July, indicative data shows – BBG
RBNZ: Boosts large scale asset purchase program to up to NZD100b
RBNZ: GDP Growth in 3Q 2020 at 12.2%
RBNZ: GDP Contracting 14.3% in 14.3% in 2Q 2020
RBNZ: Keeps key rate at 0.25% as seen by all surveyed economists
RBNZ: Forecasts show no chance of rate cut through 1Q 2020
RBNZ: To provide additional stimulus as needed to meet remit
RBNZ: Cash rate projections end in 1Q 2021
RBNZ: Eligible assets remain the same for LSAP
RBNZ: Annual inflation slowing to 0.3% in 3Q 2021
RBNZ: Package of added tools remain in active preparation
RBNZ: Purchases of foreign assets also remain an option
RBNZ: Higher NZD moderates returns from robust commodity prices
RBNZ: Downside risk remains to baseline economic scenario
RBNZ: Policy Committee reached consensus on policy decision
RBNZ: Negative rates remain in active preparation
NZ’s Ardern: No decisions yet on whether to delay election
Ardern: Dissolution of parliament will be delayed
USD:
US Ban on TikTok could cut it off from app stores, advertisers – White House Document – RTRs
After Chicago looting and coronavirus, business consider closing shop – DJ
Kamala Harris is Biden’s VP pick – RTRs
JPY:
Head of world’s largest Pension Fund looks beyond sovereign debt – FM9
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (AUG) A -9.5% | P -6.1%
AUD Wage Price Index QoQ Q2 A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
0600 GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q2) A | C -2.5% | P -0.3%
0600 GBP GDP QoQ (Q2) A | C -20.5% | P -2.2%
0600 GBP GDP MoM A | P 1.8%
0600 GBP GDP YoY (Q2) A | C -22.4% | P -1.7%
0600 GBP Industrial Production MoM (JUN) A | C 9.2 | P 6.0%
0600 GBP Labour Productivity A | P -0.6%
0600 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (JUN) A | C 10.0% | P 8.4%
0600 GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A | P -19.1%
0600 GBP Trade Balance (JUN) A | C -4.75b | P -2.81b
0600 GBP Trade Balance non-EU (JUN) A | P 0.65b
0900 EUR Industrial Production MoM (JUN) A | C 10% | P 12.4%
1230 USD CPI MoM (JUL) A | C 0.3% | P 0.6%
1400 USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.875m | P -7.373m
1500 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
1800 USD Federal Budget Balance (JUL) A | C -193b | P -864b
1900 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A nervous opening saw the market trading around the 1.3075 area testing to the 1.3065 and towards the 1.3080 area in the first hour before holding steady around the 1.3075 level for the move into the Tokyo session lifting through to the 1.3095 area before ranging around the 1.3090 level to the grey hour, early selling saw the market testing to the 1.3055 low before starting a steady rise on the London opening to push through the 1.3100 steadily in a couple of waves to spike up to the 1.3130 level before topping out and putting in a reversal as profit taking moved through the market and the Cable pushing through to its lows around the 1.3045 areas and into the close only just off the level.
- JPY: A reasonably quiet move through to the NYK session with the market opening around the 105.95 area and the move through into the Tokyo session started to see a stronger move to test through to the 106.15 area however, with the fix over the market struggled with the level and quickly slipped back to the 106. Figure level before starting a slower rise through into the London opening to test the 106.25 area, the move through from the London opening saw the market adrift testing back to the opening levels before moving into the NYK session and quickly pushing through to the 106.35 level and a slow grind through to the 106.70 area before drifting back for the close.
- AUD: A quiet opening saw the market running through into the Tokyo session holding the opening 0.7150 area before testing through to the 0.7170 level on talk of AUD bond buying by Japanese pensions and after the initial peak running through to the 0.7185 area for the first time, the move through the grey hour and London opening saw the market reversing through to the 0.7145 area before bouncing on the opening and pushing back above the 0.7180 area and holding through to the NYK opening before starting a long drawn out drift through to the 0.7140 level to finish just off the 0.7136 area low.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1740 area the market moved quietly through to the Tokyo fix before dipping through to the low of the day testing to just above the 1.1720 level before reversing steadily to push through to the 1.1750 level and range around the area through to the grey hour, early sellers saw a quick dip through to the London opening testing the lows again and a steady rise back to the 1.1750 area and then a quick move through to the 1.1765 area with weak stops triggered along the way, a steady rise through to the 1.1805 for the high of the day holding in a range around the 1.1790 through to the NYK session before dropping back through to the 1.1765 level and a slow drift to the close having again tested towards the lows.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
NZD Card Retail Sales A 1.1% | P 16.3%
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor A 4.3% | P 10.9%
JPY Adjusted Current Account A 1.05T | P 0.82T
JPY Current Account n.s.a. (JUN) A 0.168T | C 0.110T | P 1.177T
AUD NAB Business Confidence (JUL) A -14 | P 1
GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus A -1.2% | C -1.1% | P -0.3%
GBP Claimant Count Change (JUL) A 94.4k | C 10.0k | P -28.1k
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (JUN) A -220k | C -288k | P -126k
GBP Unemployment Rate (JUN) A 3.9% | C 4.2% | P 3.9%
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (AUG) A -81.3 | C -68.8 | P -80.9
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (AUG) A 71.5 | C 58.0 | P 59.3
EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (AUG) A 64 | P 59.6
CAD Housing Starts (JUL) A 245.6k | C 210k | P 211.7k | R 212.1k
USD Core PPI MoM (JUL) A 0.5% | C 0.1% | P -0.3%
USD PPI MoM (JUL) A 0.6% | C 0.3% | P -0.2%
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -4.4m | P -8.587m
Best Regards
Andy
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