Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.90 | EURUSD 1.17852 | AUDUSD 0.71622 | NZDUSD 0.65775 | USDCAD 1.32474 | USDCHF 0.91206 | GBPUSD 1.30338 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.18173 | 1.1798
USDJPY 106.940 | 106.602
GBPUSD 1.30734 | 1.30296
USDCHF 0.91239 | 0.91034
AUDUSD 0.71874 | 0.71592
NZDUSD 0.65965 | 0.65656
USDCAD 1.32633 | 1.32309
EURCHF 1.07579 | 1.07461
EURGBP 0.90447 | 0.90375
EURJPY 126.073 | 125.925
For Today
- GBP: A Steady rise from the opening with the market pushing off the 1.3030 opening to move through the 1.3040 area on the opening in Tokyo, the slow rise continued with a little rush from the 1.3050 to the 1.3060 area before pausing and trading around the level through to the grey hour, the market peaked during this period just above the 1.3070 before centralising around that 1.3060 level, downside bids into the 1.3000 area with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.2950 area to open a deeper move through to the 1.2850-00 area before stronger bids start to appear, topside offers light back through the 1.3100 level however, congestion there through to the 1.3200 level with strong offers likely around that area and then corresponding stops.
- JPY: Opening around the 106.85 area and holding through to Tokyo before drifting through to the 106.60 level in steady selling before ranging around the 106.70 level through to the grey hour, Downside weakness through to the 104.20 level where strong bids are likely to appear to slow any dips, a break of the 103.80 level will likely see some stronger stops appearing and the market running through to the 103.50 area before stronger bids reappear, topside offers congested around the 107.00 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 107.50 area before weak stops through the 107.60 area trigger a small move to the 108.00 level and stronger offers.
- AUD: Quiet opening and move through to the Tokyo session holding around the 0.7160 level before rising from the employment data to push towards the 0.7190 level before drifting back to hold the 0.7170 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 0.7200 level are likely to be light before increasing into the 0.7240-60 level with very limited weakness on any approach to the 73 cents level before stops appear on a break through the 0.7320-25 area. Downside bids into the 71 cents area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.7080 area and weakness there through to a very congested 0.7000-0.6950 level.
- EUR: A quiet rise from the opening around the 1.1785 level to push through to the early highs just above the 1.1815 area to match yesterdays high before holding quietly through to the grey hour in the 1.1810 area, Topside offers through the 1.1820 level with weak stops likely to be very light with limited congestion until closer to the 1.1900 area and stronger offers to the 1.1920 before large stops are likely to appear. Downside bids light through to the 1.1700 area with weak stops on a dip through the 1.1680 level and likely to quickly dip through to the 1.1600 level before weak bids appear to slow the move.
Overnight News
CNY:
Xi want to end food waste
China’s Shenzhen says sample of Frozen Chicken wings imported from Brazil tests positive for Covid
USD:
US posts modest tariffs changes in Boeing vs. Airbus fight – BBG
Trump says if he permanently eliminates the payroll tax, he would fund social security using the general fund – RTRs
USD/CNY:
China’s record oil imports spark security concerns – US Military News
NZD:
RBNZ: Bond lending facility will now lend at OCR less 25 BPS – BBG
RBNZ wants to lower bond yields, banks Chief economist says – BBG
New Bond buying targets meant to signal that intent Ha says
Yuong Ha: Central bank would like weaker FX rate – BBG
Ha: Negative rate is a policy option, but not inevitable – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
GBP RICS House Price Balance (JUL) A 12% | C -5% | P -15% | R -13%
AUD Employment Change (JUL) A 114.7k| C 40.0k | P 210.8k
AUD Full Employment Change (JUL) A 43.5k | P -38.1k
AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL) A 7.5% | C 7.8% | P 7.4%
0600 EUR German CPI MoM (JUL) A | C -0.5% | P -0.5%
0700 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (JUL) A | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
1230 USD Export Price Index MoM (JUL) A | C 0.4% | P 1.4%
1230 USD Import Price Index MoM (JUL) A | C 0.6% | P 1.4%
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 1,120k | P 1,188k
2230 NZD Business NZ PMI (JUL) A | P 56.3
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3050 area and for the most part the market remained around the level throughout the day, drifting through the Asian session to test through to the 1.3020 area before moving through into the London session opening recovering for a couple of tests of the 1.3065area before again drifting through to the NYK session making the lows for the day and testing the 1.3005 level, as with the London opening NYK were initially buyers from the lows pushing back above the 1.3050 level before bouncing a little through to the NYK option cut to hold around the 1.3050 area to the end of London, a light drift through to the close saw the market closing around the 1.3030 area.
- JPY: A steady grind through the day with the market opening around the 106.50 level and moving into the Tokyo session steadily pushing through to the 106.70 area to peak late in the session around the 106.80 area before moving into the London session and the movement slowly continuing to peak just through the 107.00 for the opening in NYK dropping quickly from the high back to the 106.70 level only to start to rise steadily again and this time fall short of the 107.00 level, a quiet run to the close saw the market holding quietly just below the highs.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7145 area and peaking in early Tokyo around the 0.7150 area before slowly drifting lower through to the 0.7110 level to form a base for the move through into the grey hour, early London slowly took the market towards the opening level s however, it was the NYK session that quickly took the market through to the 0.7160 area for the move through to the close just off the highs.
- EUR: After limited weakness the Euro touched through to the 1.1710 area into the late Tokyo session before grey hour buyers started to reverse the meagre losses pushing back through the 1.1740 opening levels on its way through to the 1.1770 level for the move into the NYK session, early NYK followed suit and quickly probed the 1.1800 level with a limited reach to the 1.1815 area before holding steady around the 1.1785-90 area to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (AUG) A -9.5% | P -6.1%
AUD Wage Price Index QoQ Q2 A 0.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.5%
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
NZD RBNZ Press Conference
GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q2) A -31.4% | C -2.5% | P -0.3%
GBP GDP QoQ (Q2) A -20.4% | C -20.5% | P -2.2%
GBP GDP MoM A 8.7% | P 1.8%
GBP GDP YoY (Q2) A -21.7% | C -22.4% | P -1.7%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (JUN) A 9.3% | C 9.2% | P 6.0%
GBP Labour Productivity A -3.0% | P -0.6%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (JUN) A 11.0% | C 10.0% | P 8.4% | R 8.3%
GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A -20.4% | P -19.1% | R -18.7%
GBP Trade Balance (JUN) A -5.12b | C -4.75b | P -2.81b | R 1.77b
GBP Trade Balance non-EU (JUN) A 0.30b | P 0.65b | R 2.16b
EUR Industrial Production MoM (JUN) A 9.1% | C 10% | P 12.4%
USD CPI MoM (JUL) A 0.6% | C 0.3% | P 0.6%
USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -4.512m | C -2.875m | P -7.373m
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
USD Federal Budget Balance (JUL) A 63.0b | C -193b | P -864b
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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