Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 106.926 | EURUSD 1.1814 | AUDUSD 0.71475 | NZDUSD 0.6540 | USDCAD 1.32241 | USDCHF 0.90967 | GBPUSD 1.30673 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows  

EURUSD               1.18202 | 1.18019

USDJPY                107.035 | 106.877

GBPUSD               1.30744 | 1.30482

USDCHF               0.91036 | 0.90956

AUDUSD              0.71533 | 0.71337

NZDUSD              0.65502 | 0.6527

USDCAD               1.32326 | 1.3218

EURCHF               1.07517 | 1.07464

EURGBP               0.90453 | 0.90388

EURJPY                126.453 | 126.237

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: A light rise through to the 1.3075 area before slowly drifting back to hold around the 1.3050 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 1.3120-50 area with limited congestion through the area before leaving lighter topside protection through to the 1.3200 level with stronger offers in the area to limit any further gains. downside bids into the 1.3000 area with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.2950 area to open a deeper move through to the 1.2850-00 area before stronger bids start to appear
  • JPY: A very quiet session with early Tokyo sneaking the market through the 107.00 level before slipping slowly lower through to the 106.90 area from the 107.05 highs for the move into the grey hour, Downside weakness through to the 104.20 level where strong bids are likely to appear to slow any dips, a break of the 103.80 level will likely see some stronger stops appearing and the market running through to the 103.50 area before stronger bids reappear, topside offers congested around the 107.00 level with congestion likely to continue through to the 107.50 area before weak stops through the 107.60 area trigger a small move to the 108.00 level and stronger offers.
  • AUD: A slow start to the day with the market nudging above the 0.7150 area before Lowe’s comments and the Tokyo session sent the market slowly adrift to test towards the 0.7120 area into midsession, the run to the grey hour saw the market slowly recovering from the lows as the market adjusted to the employment news that it already had awareness of trading back to the opening area for the grey hour, Topside offers through the 0.7200 level are likely to be light before increasing into the 0.7240-60 level with very limited weakness on any approach to the 73 cents level before stops appear on a break through the 0.7320-25 area. Downside bids into the 71 cents area with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.7080 area and weakness there through to a very congested 0.7000-0.6950 level.
  • EUR: A very quiet session for the Euro with a minor push at the 1.1820 level before drifting back to base closer to the 1.1800 level through to the grey hour with the market holding into that period around the 1.1810 level. Topside cleared for the move into the 1.1865 area where an old trend line exists stronger offers appearing through to the 1.1900 area and weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level, Downside bids light through to the 1.1700 area with weak stops on a dip through the 1.1680 level and likely to quickly dip through to the 1.1600 level before weak bids appear to slow the move.

 

 

Overnight News

 

AUD:

Treasury sees Australia rate at 6% for years – BBG

RBA’s Lowe says fiscal stimulus need to revive coronavirus-stricken economy

USD:

US braces for evictions crisis as aid talks stall

GBP/EUR:

France and Netherlands added to UK travel quarantine list

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC

NZD       Business NZ PMI (JUL) A 58.8 | P 56.3

AUD       RBA Lowe Speaks

CNY       Fixed Asset Investment YoY (JUL) A -1.6% | C -1.6% | P -3.1%

CNY       Industrial Production YoY (JUL) A 4.8% | C 5.1% | P 4.8%

CNY       Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (JUL) A -0.4% | P -1.3%

CNY       Chinese Unemployment Rate A 5.7% | P 5.7%

JPY         Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A 7.9% | P -2.1%

0630      CHF        PPI MoM (JUL) A | P 0.5%

0900      EUR       Eurozone GDP YoY (Q2) A | C -15.0% | P -15.0%

0900      EUR       Eurozone GDP QoQ (Q2) A | C -12.1% | P -12.1%

0900      EUR       Trade Balance (JUN) A | C 12.6b | P 9.4b

1230      USD       Nonfarm Productivity QoQ A | C 1.5% | P -0.9%

1230      USD       Retail Sales MoM (JUL) A | C 1.9% | P 7.5%

1230      USD       Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q2) A | C 6.2% | P 5.1%

1230      CAD       Manufacturing Sales MoM (JUN) A | C 16.4% | P 10.7%

1315      USD       Industrial Production MoM (JUL) A | C 3.0% | P 5.4%

1315      USD       Industrial Production YoY (JUL) A | P -10.82%

1400      USD       Business Inventories MoM (JUN) A | C -1.2% | P -2.3%

1400      USD       Michigan Consumer Expectations (AUG) A | C 66.7 | P 65.9

1400      USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment (AUG) A | C 72.0 | P 72.5

1700      USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 247

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Rising from the opening lows around the 1.3030 level to move into the Tokyo session pushing the 1.3040 level and then continuing through to midsession in Tokyo to test the 1.3075 level for the move into the grey hours slipping a little to the 1.3050 area, early London saw the market pushing to the 1.3085 area and after successive waves through to the NYIK session pushing above the 1.3110 level, NYIK were not finished though and the move to the NYK option cut saw the market testing into the 1.3125 level before the buying disappeared and the market quickly back through to the 1.3080 and then a steady drift through the session to the 1.3050 area before rising a little for the move to the close around the 1.3070 level
  • JPY: Trading was quiet before the opening in Tokyo with a range contained above the 106.80 level but struggled with the 106.90 area through to the Tokyo opening a steady drift through to the 106.60 level to form a base for the day with only the early London sellers testing through to the 106.50 area before starting a recovery into the full London session struggling through to the 107.00 level area for the move into the NYK session dipping for a second run into the London close and the market pushing through the figure level to test 107.05 before drifting a little for the close
  • AUD: A quiet session for the Oz for the most part with the employment numbers better than expected however, likely to continue to be limited for the time being, the move through the early part of the session saw the market holding around the 0.7160 level with employment numbers seeing the highs made for the day around the 0.7185 areas before drifting back to hold around the opening levels through to late in the day before dipping below the 0.7160 level to test to the lows in the 0.7135 area before recovering a little for the close.
  • EUR: As with the Cable a steady drift for the USD with the Euro moving off the lows of the day around the 1.1785 pushing through to the 1.1790 opening level for the move into the Tokyo session continuing through to the 1.1815 area before struggling through to the grey hour, early European buying saw the market rising quickly through the highs to touch the 1.1840 area before holding and ranging through to the NYK session unable to push beyond the 1.1850 area however, on the opening the buying increased and the high set just short of the 1.1865 level before falling quickly back from the NYK option cut stalling around the 1.1820 area before testing back through the 1.1800 area before recovering a little for the close.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership Results

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (JUL) A 12% | C -5% | P -15% | R -13%

AUD       Employment Change (JUL) A 114.7k| C 40.0k | P 210.8k

AUD       Full Employment Change (JUL) A 43.5k | P -38.1k

AUD       Unemployment Rate (JUL) A 7.5% | C 7.8% | P 7.4%

EUR       German CPI MoM (JUL) A 0.5% | C -0.5% | P -0.5%

EUR       Spanish CPI YoY (JUL) A -0.6% | C -0.6% | P -0.6%

USD       Export Price Index MoM (JUL) A -0.8% | C 0.4% | P 1.4%

USD       Import Price Index MoM (JUL) A 0.7% | C 0.6% | P 1.4%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 963k | C 1,120k | P 1,188k | R 1,191k

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.