Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.322 | EURUSD 1.1746 | AUDUSD 0.70447 | NZDUSD 0.66538 | USDCAD 1.33221 | USDCHF 0.91043 | GBPUSD 1.29832 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17589 | 1.17443
USDJPY 104.504 | 104.280
GBPUSD 1.30072 | 1.29814
USDCHF 0.91072 | 0.90908
AUDUSD 0.70686 | 0.70446
NZDUSD 0.66552 | 0.66345
USDCAD 1.33245 | 1.32880
EURCHF 1.07030 | 1.06852
EURGBP 0.90480 | 0.90376
EURJPY 122.891 | 122.511
For Today
- GBP: A reasonably quiet session as COVID-19 overtakes Brexit news for the moment however, rumours abound of talks on hold until the US election is over for a clear direction on negotiations for the UK and US, the market opened around the 1.2985 area and slowly rose through the Asian session to test above the 1.3000 level topping just below the 1.3010 area before moving through for the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.2900 area where stronger bids remain, with weak stops likely through the level and opening the downside only to the 1.2850 where stronger bids are likely to move through and the support growing for the moment at each sentimental level. Topside offers light through to the 1.3100 level before limited offers move in, only once the market tests towards the 1.3200 level do the offers increase with strong stops suspected through the level.
- JPY: Opening just above the 104.30 area and a slow but steady rise through the Tokyo session to hold the 104.45-50 areas range through to the grey hours, Downside bids strengthen into the 104.20-00 level with possibly bottom pickers appearing below the figure level however weak stops through the 103.80 area could see a quick stab lower through to the 102.00 level before bids start to reappear. Topside offers light on a push through the 105.00 level with limited offers into the 105.80-106.20 area and the possibility of congestion then continuing through to the 106.40-80 area. And stronger offers thereafter.
- AUD: A very quiet session with the market ranging around the 0.7050 level through the early part of the session then rising through to the 0.7065 area for the move into the Tokyo session and holding that area through to the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.7140-60 area unchanged before some light weakness appears however, 0.7180-0.7200 area sees stronger offers and 0.7220 level likely to see some congestion with stop losses through the level to open a quick move to stronger offers around the 0.7250 area. Downside bids light through to the 0.7060-40 area with stronger bids likely to appear on any move to test the 0.70000 areas, while there may be some weak stops on a move through the 0.6980 area the market is likely to see plenty of congestion into the 0.6950 area and increasing bids beyond.
- EUR: A quiet Euro with the market ranging around the 1.1750 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers increasing the closer the market gets to the 1.1900 level with strong offers into the area however, a break through the 1.1920 level will likely see the market gunning for the 1.2000 for the highs of the year however, option plays are likely to see good defences of the levels for the moment and any push through could be brief before dropping back again and any push for the top would have to have good timing. Downside bids on a strong through the 1.1720 level and weak stops hanging around the 1.1680 level if the market could reach the move with limited bids then through to the 1.1620 area.
Overnight News
GBP:
Britain’s death toll could hit 85,000 in second Covid wave – TEL
Govt. expects Pfizer Covid-19 verdict vaccine before Oxford Vaccine – Times
EUR:
France announces second coronavirus lockdown, with second wave likely to be harder and more fatal than the first – Macron – TWT
USD:
The Fed is really running out of firepower says Bill Dudley former president of the Fed – BBG
Forget the polls, these rust belters offer real election insight – NYP
Pelosi says Details of Covid-19 package could change after the election – WSJ
Anonymous no longer, former Trump minor official reveals identity –
USD/CNY:
US allows sales of chips to Huawei’s non 5g businesses – FTI
JPY:
Japanese sold net 1T JPY overseas debt last week – BBG
Today’s Data
JPY Retail Sales YoY (SEP) A -8.7% | C -7.7% | P -1.9%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (OCT) A -15.7 | P -28.5
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A -10 | P -15
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BoJ Outlook Report YoY
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 5.0%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P 0.9%
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY A | P -0.4%
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (OCT) A | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
0855 EUR German Unemployment A | C -5k | P -8k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Rate (OCT) A | C 6.3% | P 6.3%
1230 USD GDP QoQ (Q3) A | C 31.0% | P -31.4%
1230 USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q3) A | C 2.8% | P -2.1%
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 775k | P 787k
1245 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (OCT) A | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1245 EUR ECB Marginal lending Facility A | P 0.25%
1245 EUR Monetary Policy Statement
1245 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision A | P 0.00%
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (OCT) A | C -0.1% | P -0.2%
1330 CAD Building Permits MoM (SEP) A | P 1.7%
1330 EUR ECB Press Conference
1400 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (SEP) A | C 3.4% | P 8.8%
2245 NZD Building Consents MoM A | P 0.3%
2330 JPY Jobs/applications ratio (SEP) A | C 1.04 | P 1.04
2330 JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (OCT) A | C -0.5% | P -0.2%
2330 CPI CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (OCT) A | P -0.1%
2350 JPY Industrial Production MoM (SEP) A | C 3.2% | P 1.0%
2350 JPY Retail Sales YoY A | P -1.9%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3035 level the Asian session saw the market slowly pushing higher through into the London session pushing only to the 1.3065 area before Main stream Media started to concentrate on levels of lockdowns across some of the countries with France talking of another lockdown and then followed by rumours of Germany following, and the steady rise was given back within 30mins and the market pushing through to the 1.3000 level before briefly pausing only to push through to the 1.2975 area for another pause this time through into the NYK session before dropping for the last time testing through to the 1.2920 area before stronger buyers appeared for a move through to the 1.3000 level into the London close testing to the 1.3020 before settling back a little and ranging around the 1.2985 area through to the close.
- JPY: Opening towards the highs the market moved through into the Tokyo session the USDJPY tested through the 104.55 level before drifting through the Asian session testing through to the 104.15 level before holding for a few hours into the London session, a slight rise before dipping from the 104.35 level through to test the lows of the session around the 104.10 level this time, NYK were steady buyers through to the 104.45 opening level before settling back and a narrowing range around the 104.35 level to the close.
- AUD: Slowly rising from the opening lows around the 0.7115 area to push through into the late Asian session testing the 0.7155 area before London started a tight channelled run lower testing to the 0.7050 level with a stab at the 0.7040 area a couple of times before finishing the dray holding around the level into the close.
- EUR: Stepping lower through the session with the market opening around the 1.1790 area and moving through to the 1.1780 area for a long range around the level before moving into the grey hour and a slow drift again to test to the lows into the NYK session pushing the 1.1720 area before rising and holding the 1.1750 area through to the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD CPI YoY (Q3) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P -0.3%
AUD CPI QoQ (Q3) A 1.6% | C 1.5% | P -1.9%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q3) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P -0.1%
USD Goods Trade Balance (SEP) A -79.37b | P -83.11b
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (SEP) A 0.9% | P 0.5%
CAD BoC Rate Statement
CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 4.320m | C 1.230m | P -1.001m
CAD BoC press conference
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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