Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.76 | EURUSD 1.21418 | AUDUSD 0.77132 | NZDUSD 0.7195 | USDCAD 1.27436 | USDCHF 0.88819 | GBPUSD 1.36754 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21710 | 1.21275
USDJPY 103.800 | 103.658
GBPUSD 1.36805 | 1.36463
USDCHF 0.88894 | 0.88787
AUDUSD 0.77199 | 0.76856
NZDUSD 0.72013 | 0.7178
USDCAD 1.27691 | 1.2737
EURCHF 1.07870 | 1.07798
EURGBP 0.88873 | 0.88762
EURJPY 126.034 | 125.818
For Today
- GBP: A little light liquidity and a quick spike to the 1.3665 before slowly rising through to the 1.3680 through into the Tokyo session, a slow drift through early Tokyo saw the market slipping through to test the 1.3660 area and while there was a mild recovery the market eventually returned to the lows to push through the 1.3650 area for the move through into the grey hours, Downside bids light through to the 1.3600 area with some stubborn bids in the area and weak stops likely on a dip through however, 1.3550 area likely to see stronger bids and likely to continue in mixed strength to the 1.3500 area. Topside offers light through the 1.3700 level with offers likely to continue through before stronger offers appear around the 1.3750 area and increasing to the 1.3800 area.
- JPY: Opening around the 103.75 area a little back and forth in early trading before pushing slowly to the 103.80 area before starting a deeper move lower pushing through to the 103.65 area before recovering slowly to the opening levels. Offers increasing through the 104.00 area and continuing through to the 104.20 area, weak stops on the move level and light congestion running through to the 104.50 area and increasing offers then through to the 104.80-105.00 level and stronger offers. Downside bids through to the 103.00 area, a push through the level will likely see bids continuing until a break of the 102.80 area and then a similar pattern through on the 102 handle with 102.50 then providing support.
- AUD: Bank holiday Australia Day sees a quiet session eventually turning into a slow decline through to the 0.7680’s for the low of the day to match yesterdays lows, weak bids into the 0.7650 level then steady bids through to the stronger 76 cents level and strong stops through to the 0.7580 level. Topside offers through the 0.7750 area and stronger offers then starting through the 0.7780-0.8020 level before weak stops and stronger offers again appearing this time through the 0.8040-60 level.
- EUR: Light trading with a little light on liquidity through the early part and market high just short of the 1.2150 area before drifting through to the 1.2135 level for the early lows into Tokyo, limited recovery to the opening levels before dropping off through to the grey hours testing into the 1.2120’s and holding around 1.2130 for the grey hours, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
USD:
Biden sets in motion plan to ban new oil and gas drilling on Federal Land – NYT
Biden signs buy American order, pledges to renew US manufacturing – NPW
NZD:
NZ services industry contracted again in December – BBG
Ardern says NZ may approve first vaccine next week – BBG
AUD/CNY:
Wheat shipments to grain hungry China surge as total 2020 exports just shy of record high – SMP
CNY:
PBoC adviser proposes dropping GDP target permanently – BBG
EUR/GBP:
Germany expects Astra vaccine efficiency of 8% for seniors as EU/UK spat over none deliveries of vaccine increase
Expensive cheese, rotting seafood and other Brexit problems – SMP
Today’s Data
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD Bank Holiday Australia Day
0700 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (NOV) A | C 2.9% | P 2.7%
0700 GBP Claimant Count Change (DEC) A | C 35.0k | P 64.3k
0700 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M MoM (NOV) A | C -100k | P 144k
0700 GBP Unemployment Rate (NOV) A | C 5.1% | P 4.9%
0800 CHF World economic Forum Annual Meeting
1400 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. YoY (NOV) A | C 8.6% | P 7.9%
1500 USD CB Consumer Confidence (JAN) A | C 89.0 | P 88.6
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P 2.562m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening unchanged around the 1.3680 area the market made an early stab through into the 1.3670’s before returning to the opening levels and ranging through into the Tokyo session, the move deeper into the session saw the market running through in a steady rise to lightly push above the 1.3720 area and hold through into the grey hours before moving into the London session falling away in two waves to the 1.3670 area, a recovery of sorts saw a weak attempt for the 1.3700 level before drifting through in to the NYK session with a quick dips through to the 1.3660 area ranging quietly then finally making the lows around the 1.3650 area before ranging around the 1.3670 area through to the close.
- JPY: A quiet range through the day for the most of the day, ranging around the 103.80 area and the move into the Tokyo session testing through to the 103.90 before drifting through to the grey hours testing the 103.70 level making the lows just through the level before starting to rise again through into the London session to range again around the 103.80 level through to NYK, a little dip to the 103.70 and then a steady push higher triggering a little bit of stops through to test just above the 103.90 area for the highs and then back to 103.80 area for the close.
- AUD: Drifting a little from the opening into the Tokyo session testing through into the 0.7705 area before recovering for the Tokyo fix and running through to the 0.7725 area before dipping back, and start a longer stronger run through to the grey hours pushing through to the 0.7745 area before running into the London opening and drifting away through to the 0.7720 area again and range through to late in the session before moving deeper to test through the 77 cents level holding just above the 0.7680 level in what looked to be system orders moving through around the NYK option cut and once over smartly bouncing to the 77 cents level again and a range around 0.7710 area to the close.
- EUR: The quietest of the pairs with a tight range, opening unchanged around the 1.2170 level the market drifted to test the 1.2160 area and through into midsession recovered to slowly push through the opening level to test just above the 1.2180 level for the grey hours, London entered the market selling and the market traded through to the 1.2140 area before bouncing and was only able to test lightly above the 1.2160 area before drifting again and quickly dipping 20 pips on the move through the lows holding the area through to the end of NYK option cut before rising and holding through to the close around the 1.2140 areas.
Premiership Results
EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
EUR German Business Expectations (JAN) A 91.1 | C 93.2 | P 92.8 | R 93.0
EUR German Current Assessment (JAN) A 89.2 | C 90.6 | P 91.3
EUR German ifo Business Climate Index (JAN) A 90.1 | C 91.8 | P 92.1 | R 92.2
EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.