Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.241 | EURUSD 1.21767 | AUDUSD 0.78716 | NZDUSD 0.74083 | USDCAD 1.2605 | USDCHF 0.90481 | GBPUSD 1.40089 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21891 | 1.21373
USDJPY 106.431 | 105.849
GBPUSD 1.40258 | 1.39422
USDCHF 0.90641 | 0.90422
AUDUSD 0.78833 | 0.78198
NZDUSD 0.73811 | 0.73096
USDCAD 1.26480 | 1.25883
EURCHF 1.10246 | 1.10039
EURGBP 0.87146 | 0.86808
EURJPY 129.515 | 128.891
For Today
- GBP: Holding around the closing levels for the move into the Tokyo session to quickly test from the 1.4025 area to test the 1.3950 area before bouncing, the market recovered again holding below the 1.4025 area and after a brief pause make the same move and holding the 1.3950 for the move into the grey hours, downside bids light through the 1.3950 level and increasing bids into the 1.3900 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area and a similar patter through the 1.3800 area and increasing bids through the 1.3750 area. Topside offers light through to the 1.4100 area and then limited offers increasing into the 1.4200 areas to limit a Friday market.
- JPY: Bouncy movement on the opening with the market eventually pushing through to the 106.40 area to match yesterdays highs before starting a drift through into the Tokyo session dipping through to the 105.85 area before slowly recovering to the 106.20 areas for the move into the grey hours, topside offers through the 106.50 area with increasing offers on any move above the 106.70 area increasing through the 107.00 level with weak stops likely on any break of the 107.20 areas with more offers into the 107.50 level. downside bids light through the 106.00 level and weak stops on a breakthrough the 105.80 area and limited congestion through to the 105.00 areas where stronger bids appear.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7875 level the early high around the 0.7885 area failed as the Tokyo market opened and the sellers pushed the market into the supportive area bouncing off the level the first time down to recover the 0.7870 area and then taking a second run towards the 0.7820 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers into the 0.7900 areas likely to be weak and limited offers beyond however, with the AUD options cleared one way or the other the market opens up in both directions to some extent with bids likely to be strong through to the 78 cents with weak stops on a dip through the 0.7780 area and open through to the 0.7750 area and beyond, topside offers light through to the 80 cents area with strong offers likely anything in front is possibly weak and uninspiring,
- EUR: A similar session and pattern to the other pairs with the opening seeing the high for the session to just short of the 1.2190 area before moving into the Tokyo session falling back to test the 1.2140 before bouncing back towards the opening level and then starting another decline for the move into the grey hours holding around the 1.2150 level. Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
USD:
Senate Parliamentarian rules against including minimum wage increase in Covid Bill – DJ
Yellen back new allocation of IMFs own currency to help poor nations – RTRs
Gold slides as treasuries rise
USD/IRR:
US strikes Iran backed militia in Northern Syria – DPA
NZD:
RBNZ’s Orr Says commitment to prolonged stimulus remains – BBG
AUD:
Sydney median auction house price hits record high – AFR
Today’s Data
NZD Trade Balance YoY (JAN) A 2,750m | P 2,940m | R 2,980m
NZD Trade Balance MoM (JAN) A -62q6m | P 17m | R 69m
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (FEB) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P -0.4%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy MoM (FEB) A 0.1% | P 0.2%
NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
JPY Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A 4.2% | C 4.0% | P -1.0%
JPY Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A -2.4% | C -2.6% | P -0.2%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 6.4%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P -0.3%
0730 CHF Employment Level (Q4) A | P 5.138m
0800 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (FEB) A | C 96.6 | P 96.5
0800 CHF GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.1% | P 7.2%
0800 CHF GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -2.1% | P -1.6%
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY A | P 0.5%
0800 EUR Spanish HiCP YoY (FEB) A | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
? GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
1230 GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (JAN) A | C 1.4% | P 1.5%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (JAN) A | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
1330 USD Personal Spending MoM (JAN) A | C 2.5% | P -0.2%
1330 USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (JAN) A | P 1.2%
1330 CAD RMPI MoM (JAN) A | P 3.5%
1445 USD Chicago PMI (FEB) A | C 61.1 | P 63.8
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (FEB) A | C 69.8 | P 74.0
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A | C 76.5 | P 79.0
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 397
1900 USD US Federal Budget A | P -430.0b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening just below the 1.4150 area the market struggled with the level drifting through to the 1.4130 area into midsession before slowly pushing through and trading into the 1.4170 area ranging around the 1.4150 area through into the London session with repeated pushes towards the 1.4180 level before moving into the NYK session and USD buying and the market steadily dipping through to the end of London testing to the 1.4000 as some chunky options moved through and the buying we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks seemed to ebb away, the market held the 1.400 and became the base to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 105.85 area and pushing through into the Tokyo session testing the 106.15 level before drifting back after the end of the Tokyo fix, the market based at the 105.80 area and the move through into the grey hours again rallying through to the 106.15 level and slowly hedging to the 106.20 before moving into the NYK session breaking the level steadily and testing to the 106.40 area before the NYK Option cut ended and collapsing back to the 106.00 level and recovering most of the gains to the close.
- AUD: Slowly drifting from the early highs around the 0.7975 area testing through to the 0.7955 to define the range through to the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market rally through to the 0.8005 falling short of the 0.8010 level and falling back steadily into the NYK session before dropping ever quicker to test through the 79 cents area and hold the 0.7870 area for the close as options expired triggering in either direction during the day.
- EUR: Light trading through the Asian session with a limited rise through to the 1.2175 area for the move into the London session and buying going through of the Euro especially against the EURGBP after the failures above 1.4150 level during the week, the market pushed through to range around the .12225 areas with the market moving into the Option Cut making the highs just above the 1.2235 level before then dropping quickly back to the opening levels for the move into the close.
Premiership Results
AUD Private New Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q4) A 3.0% | C 0.4% | P -3.0%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence A 7.0 | P 9.4
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (MAR) A -12 | C -14.3 | P -15.5
EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (JAN) A 1.4% | C 0.7% | P 1.7%
USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (JAN) A 3.4% | C 1.1% | P 1.2%
USD FOMC Member Bostic speaks
USD GDP QoQ (Q4) A 4.1% | C 4.2% | P 4.0%
USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q4) A 2.0% | C 2.0% | P 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 730k | C 838k | P 841k
USD Pending Home Sales MoM (JAN) A -2.8% | C -0.2% | P 0.5%
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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