Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.553 | EURUSD 1.2072 | AUDUSD 0.7704 | NZDUSD 0.72303 | USDCAD 1.27421 | USDCHF 0.90481 | GBPUSD 1.39222 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21015 | 1.2070
USDJPY 106.704 | 106.367
GBPUSD 1.39996 | 1.3928
USDCHF 0.90906 | 0.90732
AUDUSD 0.77717 | 0.77089
NZDUSD 0.72872 | 0.72334
USDCAD 1.27355 | 1.26876
EURCHF 1.09800 | 1.09638
EURGBP 0.86667 | 0.86357
EURJPY 128.939 | 128.514
For Today
- GBP: Opening a tiny stronger pushing to the 1.3950 into the Tokyo session pushing through to test towards the 1.4000 level for the high of the session before drifting a little through the day to push to the 1.3965 area and holding around the 1.3970 level to the grey hours, downside bids light through the 1.3950 level and increasing bids into the 1.3900 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area and a similar patter through the 1.3800 area and increasing bids through the 1.3750 area. Topside offers light through to the 1.4100 area and then limited offers increasing into the 1.4200 areas to limit a Friday market.
- JPY: An unchanged opening and slowly slipping through into the early part of Tokyo testing through the 106.40 area before quickly rising into the Tokyo fix pushing through the 106.70 area for the high of the session before drifting back again through into the 106.50 area once more to hold for the grey hours, topside offers through the 106.70 area increasing through the 107.00 level with weak stops likely on any break of the 107.20 areas with more offers into the 107.50 level. downside bids light through the 106.00 level and weak stops on a breakthrough the 105.80 area and limited congestion through to the 105.00 areas where stronger bids appear.
- AUD: Opening a tiny bit higher and then picking up some early AUDJPY level to push through the 0.7750 area and then trading around the level through to the grey hours with a brief spike above the 0.7770 level before returning to the 0.7750 for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7700 area and likely to be strong however, weak stops through the 0.7680 area with the market likely only to open a short distance before stronger bids again appear and the market struggles for any further downside movement, Topside offers light through the 78 cents level with weak stops likely above the level and the 79 cents level then likely to open quickly and very little to curb the push.
- EUR: Opening unchanged and steadily rising through into the Tokyo session pushing above the 1.2100 level before drifting off again to hold into the grey hours testing back to the opening 1.2075 areas, Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids light through to the 1.2080 area and possible weak stops appearing through the level and opening the chance of a test to the 1.2000 level in the short term with stronger bids into the 1.1950.
Overnight News
CNY:
China’s Economic recovery slows amid holiday disruptions – BBG
China chips away at coal addiction to chase Climate goals – BBG
USD/SAR:
Biden says Saudi announcement to come Monday- White House plays down new steps – RTRs
NZD:
NZ PM Ardern: Auckland will return to lockdown following detection of infected person in the city – Trade the news
EUR:
Germany tightens boarder with France due to COVID variant – Trade the News
Italy tightens COVID restrictions for 5 regions amid warnings of growing prevalence of variants – AXS
AUD:
Debt Cost spike presents a few challenges for RBA – AFR
Domain Holdings: Australian housing market rises at fastest rate in 17years over February / Mar – CO6
RBA to buy AUD 4b of longer dated bonds, double usual size – BBG
USD:
US drops digital tax demand, opening door to global deal – BBG
USD/CNY:
US Signals it will implement rule curbing China Tech threats – BBG
AUD/RUB:
Russia’s wheat export tax expected to deliver big pay day for Australian farmers – ABC
Today’s Data
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (FEB) A 51.6 | P 52.8
CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 50.6 | C 51.1 | P 51.3
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 51.4 | P 52.4
AUD AiG Manufacturing Index (FEB) A 58.8 | P 55.3
AUD Company Gross Operating Profits QoQ (Q4) A -6.6% | C -4.0% | P 3.2%
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 50.9 | C 51.5 | P 51.5
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P -0.3%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 6.4%
0730 CHF Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A | P 4.7%
0815 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 52.0 | P 49.3
0830 CHF procure.ch PMI (FEB) A | C 60.0 | P 59.4
0855 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 60.6 | P 60.6
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 57.7 | P 54.8
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 54.9 | P 54.9
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P 0.8%
1320 CAD Current Account (Q4) A | C -8.3b | P -7.5b
1400 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | P 58.5
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (FEB) A | P 52.6
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | P 58.8 | P 58.7
2330 JPY Jobs/Applications ratio (JAN) A | C 1.06 | P 1.06
2350 JPY Capital Spending YoY A | P -10.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Peaking early in the session the market peaking around the 1.4030 level before dipping through into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.3950 area before slowly recovering through into midsession holding around the 1.4025 opening area before again slipping through this time to break the 1.3950 area for the move into the grey hours and early London, early crowd took the market through to the 1.3900 level and the end of the GBPJPY buying for M&A officially appeared over, the move through into the London session saw a couple of dips through to the 1.3885/90 area before recovering through to range through to the close around the 1.3950 area and eventually narrowing down around the level and drifting a little into the closing couple of hours.
- JPY: Volatile opening saw a quick 20 pip range topping just above the 106.30 level and dipping through to just above the 106.10 area before stabilizing around the 106.25 area for the move into the Tokyo session and the market running through to the 106.40 area, Tokyo sellers from the early highs started to sell through the GBPJPY and USDJPY dipped through to the 106.20 and after a brief pause through the Tokyo fix running again to make the lows through the 105.90 area before starting a slow rally back to the 106.20 area, grey hours saw limited selling only for the London session to push through market through to the 106.50 in a early push before drifting for the move into the NYK opening,
- AUD: Opening towards the highs just above he 0.7890 area the market moved steadily lower through the day as USD buying moved through the market initially testing to the 0.7830 on the move into the Tokyo session before recovering some of the losses and then dipping again through to the same level for the move into the Grey hours, testing the 0.7800 area recovering and moving into the London session running lower again this time pushing through to the 0.7730 on a deeper move before heading into the NYK session, NYK steadily took it through to the close and the final hour saw the market dipping through the 0.7700 level before holding just above the level for the close.
- EUR: As with some of the other pairs the market opened around the highs with a brief flirtation with the 1.2190 area and dipping away on the move into the Tokyo session testing through to the Asian lows around the 1.2140 area, a bounce towards the highs and then a steadier move to the 1.2150 area for a hold through into the grey hours, grey hour selling saw the follow through of the London opening and the market tested steadily through to the 1.2100 level with a light push through move moving into the NYK session and the market attempting a move higher only to drop back from the 1.2140 area testing through to the 1.2070 and finally making the lows just through the 1.2065 level to finish just off those lows.
Premiership Results
NZD Trade Balance YoY (JAN) A 2,750m | P 2,940m | R 2,980m
NZD Trade Balance MoM (JAN) A -62q6m | P 17m | R 69m
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (FEB) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P -0.4%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy MoM (FEB) A 0.1% | P 0.2%
NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
JPY Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A 4.2% | C 4.0% | P -1.0%
JPY Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A -2.4% | C -2.6% | P -0.2%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
CHF Employment Level (Q4) A 5.13m | P 5.138m
CHF KOF Leading Indicators (FEB) A 102.7 | C 96.6 | P 96.5
CHF GDP QoQ (Q4) A 0.3% | C 0.1% | P 7.2% | R 7.6%
CHF GDP YoY (Q4) A -1.6% | C -2.1% | P -1.6% | R -1.4%
EUR Spanish CPI YoY A 0.0% | P 0.5%
EUR Spanish HiCP YoY (FEB) A -0.1% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (JAN) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.5% | R 1.4%
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
USD Personal Spending MoM (JAN) A 2.4% | C 2.5% | P -0.2% | R -0.4%
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (JAN) A -0.2% | P 1.2% | R 2.2%
CAD RMPI MoM (JAN) A 5.7% | P 3.5%
USD Chicago PMI (FEB) A 59.5 | C 61.1 | P 63.8
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (FEB) A 70.7 | C 69.8 | P 74.0
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FEB) A 76.8 | C 76.5 | P 79.0
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 402 | P 397
Best Regards
Andy
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