Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.761 | EURUSD 1.20488 | AUDUSD 0.7773 | NZDUSD 0.72635 | USDCAD 1.26459 | USDCHF 0.91486 | GBPUSD 1.3925 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20509 | 1.20154
USDJPY 106.926 | 106.655
GBPUSD 1.39311 | 1.38663
USDCHF 0.91642 | 0.91450
AUDUSD 0.77777 | 0.77381
NZDUSD 0.72818 | 0.7241
USDCAD 1.26879 | 1.26397
EURCHF 1.10237 | 1.10083
EURGBP 0.86667 | 0.86429
EURJPY 128.771 | 128.291
For Today
- GBP: After opening around the 1.3925 the Cable came under pressure in early trading in the Tokyo session to slip through the 1.3900 level triggering some weak stops on a dip through to the 1.3870 area bouncing and then pausing before drifting off again to push into the grey hours making new lows through to the 1.3865 area, downside bids into the 1.3850 area with likely weak stops on a move through before stronger bids likely into the 1.3800 level and increasing congestion possible to the 1.3750 area before weakness reappears to the downside, topside offer light through the 1.3900 level and 1.4000 with limited sentimental offers before weak stops appear and the market likely to be weak through to close to 1.4100 where the market sees stronger offers.
- JPY: A very quiet session for the USDJPY with a light gradual move from the opening 106.75 area to push quietly through the 106.90 area before dipping back and then rise to range around the 106.60 area for the move into the grey hours, topside offers through the 106.90 area increasing through the 107.00 level with weak stops likely on any break of the 107.20 areas with more offers into the 107.50 level. downside bids light through the 106.00 level and weak stops on a breakthrough the 105.80 area and limited congestion through to the 105.00 areas where stronger bids appear.
- AUD: A quiet session with the AUD drifting through the early part of the Tokyo session from the opening 0.7775 highs just after the opening and once into Tokyo slipping through to test the 0.7750 area for the first time, recovering briefly before dipping through to test into the 0.7730 areas before quickly recovering through the 0.7765 level after the RBA announcement and a neutral commentary saw the market holding the 0.7750 area for the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7700 area and likely to be strong however, weak stops through the 0.7680 area with the market likely only to open a short distance before stronger bids again appear and the market struggles for any further downside movement, Topside offers light through the 78 cents level with weak stops likely above the level and the 79 cents level then likely to open quickly and very little to curb the push.
- EUR: Opening just below the 1.2050 area and making a weak move to just above the level, the move deeper into the Tokyo session saw two steps lower with the first move through to the 1.2030 area then holding for a short period before again moving this time through to the 1.2015 area and ranging quietly through to the grey hours, Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids into the 1.2000 area with weak stops likely on a move through to the 1.1980 area congestion around the sentimental 1.1950 area before stronger bids are likely into the 1.1900 levels.
Overnight News
NZD:
RBNZ says it can increase weekly bond purchases if needed – BBG
USD:
CDC director warns now is not the time to lift COVID restrictions, citing stalled progress – AXS
USD/GBP:
Pfizer or AstraZeneca single dose cuts hospitalization by 80% – BBG
CNY:
China Bank regulator reiterates to intensify anti-monopoly work – BBG
AUD:
RBA leaves cash rate and yield target unchanged
RBA: Wage and price pressures expected to remain subdued
RBA: Does not expect conditions met to raise rates until 2024
RBA: AUD remains in upper end of range of recent years
RBA: Economy still has considerable spare capacity
Today’s Data
JPY Jobs/Applications ratio (JAN) A 1.10 | C 1.06 | P 1.06
JPY Capital Spending YoY A -4.8% | P -10.6%
AUD Building Approvals MoM (JAN) A -19.4% | C -3.0% | P 10.9% | R 12.0%
AUD Current Account (Q4) A 14.5b | C 13.1b | P 10.0b
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (MAR) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (FEB) A | C 5.6% | P 6.4%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (FEB) A | C -0.3% | P -0.3%
0700 EUR German Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -0.3% | P -9.6%
0800 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A | P 76.2k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB) A | C -13k | P -41k
1000 EUR CPI YoY (FEB) A | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
1330 CAD GDP MoM (DEC) A | C 0.3% | P 0.7%
1330 CAD GDP YoY (Q4) A | P -5.16%
1330 CAD GDP QoQ (Q4) A | P 8.9%
1330 CAD Annualized QoQ (Q4) A | C 7.5% | P 40.5%
1340 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
1400 EUR ECB’s McCaul Speaks
1800 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P 1.026m
2145 NZD Building Consents MoM (JAN) A | P 4.9%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Pushing quickly from the o0pening 1.3930 level to test into the Tokyo session testing the 1.4000 level and then holding quietly close to the area for the move into the grey hours, early Europeans sold the Cable back to the opening level however, once into the London session the buying reappeared the day became choppy through to the NYK session with the market again finding fresh lows test to the lows just through the 1.3905 area ranging back to the 1.3950 area and back repeatedly through to the close of London before holding quietly to the close.
- JPY: After a little weakness into the Tokyo fix the market recovered from the 106.35 lows of the day to push gradually back through the opening 106.55 area and through to the 106.70 level, the move through to the grey hours and into the London session saw the market dipping back to the opening level and then holding quietly before the London session made the 106.75 area for a quiet run to the NYK opening, the 106.50 level held through to late in the session then started to rally once the London session left the Arena stopping at the 106.90 area to dip a little for the close.
- AUD: Opening on its lows the market moved from the opening around the 0.7710 area to push into the early Tokyo session rising through to the 0.7765 level, the market ranged for the most part in a narrow band around the level with one quick push through to the 0.7775 area before dipping back to hold around the 0.7760 area again and slowly slipping back to move into the grey hours testing the 0.7735 level, grey hour selling saw the market head through to the 0.7740 only for London to open testing through to 0.7730 and finally set the low just above the 0.7720 area for NYK to start a slow stream or buying through to the high just above the 0.7785 level and range through to the close in a tight quiet pattern.
- EUR: Opening unchanged the move through into the Tokyo session saw the high for the day with the market testing above the 1.2100 level unconvincingly and drifting back through to the opening 1.2075 area again, the move through into the grey hours again saw the Euro rising however, once into the London session the Euro dipped in the first hour through to the 1.2030 and the lows for the day with the NYK session testing the same level before ranging around the 1.2050 area to the close.
Premiership Results
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (FEB) A 51.6 | P 52.8
CNY Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 50.6 | C 51.1 | P 51.3
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 51.4 | P 52.4
AUD AiG Manufacturing Index (FEB) A 58.8 | P 55.3
AUD Company Gross Operating Profits QoQ (Q4) A -6.6% | C -4.0% | P 3.2%
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 50.9 | C 51.5 | P 51.5
CHF Retail Sales YoY (JAN) A -0.5% | P 4.7% | R 5.4%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 52.9 | C 52.0 | P 49.3
CHF procure.ch PMI (FEB) A 61.3 | C 60.0 | P 59.4
EUR German Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 60.7 | C 60.6 | P 60.6
EUR Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 57.9 | C 57.7 | P 54.8
GBP Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 55.1 | C 54.9 | P 54.9
EUR German CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.8%
CAD Current Account (Q4) A -7.3b | C -8.3b | P -7.5b | R -10.5b
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 58.6 | P 58.5
USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (FEB) A 54.4 | P 52.6
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 60.8 | P 58.8 | P 58.7
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
EUR German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks
EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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