Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 106.689 | EURUSD 1.20903 | AUDUSD 0.78201 | NZDUSD 0.72908 | USDCAD 1.26378 | USDCHF 0.91448 | GBPUSD 1.39555 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20933 | 1.20827
USDJPY 106.880 | 106.680
GBPUSD 1.39678 | 1.39444
USDCHF 0.91548 | 0.91456
AUDUSD 0.78379 | 0.78148
NZDUSD 0.73020 | 0.72677
USDCAD 1.26433 | 1.26272
EURCHF 1.10657 | 1.10539
EURGBP 0.86634 | 0.86547
EURJPY 129.197 | 128.962
For Today
- GBP: Slipping from the opening around the 1.3960 area the market found a base around the 1.3950 level and slowly recovered through to the 1.3965 area ranging around the 1.3955-60 area through to the grey hours in quiet trading generally, downside bids into the 1.3850 area with likely weak stops on a move through before stronger bids likely into the 1.3800 level and increasing congestion possible to the 1.3750 area before weakness reappears to the downside, topside offer light through the 1.3900 level and 1.4000 with limited sentimental offers before weak stops appear and the market likely to be weak through to close to 1.4100 where the market sees stronger offers.
- JPY: Opening on its lows the market moved through to the Tokyo session lifting from just below the 106.70 level to press through to the 106.88 area before holding quietly through to the grey hours, topside offers through the 106.90 area increasing through the 107.00 level with weak stops likely on any break of the 107.20 areas with more offers into the 107.50 level. downside bids light through the 106.00 level and weak stops on a breakthrough the 105.80 area and limited congestion through to the 105.00 areas where stronger bids appear.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening to test lightly below the 0.7815 area the market managed to hold into the Tokyo session to push steadily through into the Tokyo session testing above the 0.7835 level into the Tokyo fix before starting a slow drift through into the grey hours pushing back to the opening levels, Downside bids into the 0.7700 area and likely to be strong however, weak stops through the 0.7680 area with the market likely only to open a short distance before stronger bids again appear and the market struggles for any further downside movement, Topside offers light through the 78 cents level with weak stops likely above the level and the 79 cents level then likely to open quickly and very little to curb the push.
- EUR: A very quiet session with the Euro moving around the opening 1.2090 level with the topside very limited and the downside holding above the 1.2082 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids into the 1.2000 area with weak stops likely on a move through to the 1.1980 area congestion around the sentimental 1.1950 area before stronger bids are likely into the 1.1900 levels.
Overnight News
USD:
Biden urges Senate democrats to reject GOP efforts to sabotage stimulus bill with poison pill amendment – NYT
Fed’s Daly says asset prices are elevated, but that should not drive in – DJ
Texas Gov. lifts masks mandate, business restrictions – DJ
Democrats Manchin wants unemployment benefits scaled back – BBG
GBP:
UK to extend furlough program until September – DJ
CNY:
Analysts say PBoC may cut RRR for some banks in March – CSJ
EUR/CNY:
Greece eager to continue cooperation with China in post pandemic – PDA
AUD:
Frydenberg plays down tax hike proposal to fund aged care – AFR
Google baulks at proposed online safety bill – AFR
GBP:
Sunak extends furlough for UK workers through September – BBC
Today’s Data
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 7.356m | P 1.026m
NZD Building Consents MoM (JAN) A 2.1% | P 4.9% | R 5.1%
AUD GDP YoY (Q4) A -1.1% | C -1.8% | P -3.8% | R -3.7%
AUD GDP QoQ (Q4) A 3.1% | C 2.5% | P 3.3% | R 3.4%
JPY Services PMI (FEB) A 46.3 | P 46.1
CNY Caixin Services PMI (FEB) A 51.5 | P 52.0
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (FEB) A 51.7 | P 52.8
0645 CHF GDP (QoQ) A | P 7.2%
0730 CHF CPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.4% | P 0.1%
0815 EUR Spanish Services PMI (FEB) A | C 43.0 | P 41.7
0855 EUR German Services PMI (FEB) A | C 45.9 | P 46.7
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A | C 48.1 | P 47.8
0900 EUR Services PMI (FEB) A | C 44.7 | P 45.4
0930 GBP Composite PMI (FEB) A | C 49.8 | P 41.2
0930 GBP Services PMI (FEB) A | C 49.7 | P 39.5
? USD OPEC Meeting
1230 GBP Annual Budget Release
1300 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
1315 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (FEB) A | C 177k | P 174k
1330 CAD Building Permits MoM (JAN) A | C 3.5% | P -4.1%
1445 USD Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A | C 58.8 | P 58.7
1445 USD Services PMI (FEB) A | C 58.9 | P 58.3
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (FEB) A | P 55.2
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A | C 58.7 | P 58.7
1500 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -0.928m | P 1.285m
1600 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
1700 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1900 USD Beige Book
1930 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
2015 NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
2305 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3925 area holding through into the Tokyo session testing lightly through the 1.3930 area before dipping for the first move to the 1.3900 area and pausing held for a couple of hours before making the next move testing through to the 1.2875 level and stops triggered struggled through to the London session holding the 1.3885 area before making the lows into the London opening testing the 1.3860 area and after a short period starting a slow recovery to the opening levels, ranging around the 1.3920 levels through into the NYK period and then jumping quickly to the 1.3950 level peaking around the 1.3965 area and after a little drift moved through to make the highs of the day testing the 1.3975 area before holding into the close just below.
- JPY: A limited range throughout the day with the opening around the 106.75 area being close to the centre of the range, early Tokyo saw light buying through the 106.90 area before dipping back through into the low 106.70’s and a slow steady grind through to midmorning in London before pushing through to the 106.95 level for the high for the day and the move into the NYK session, a dip through to the 106.70 area penetrating the level a little but holding through to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7775 area and then drifting through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7735 area for the first of four attempts to break lower, the move through into the London session saw the market back on its lows for the final time with the London session lifting off the area to push through to the 78 cents level to range quietly through into the NYK session, Testing repeatedly through to the 0.7815 area the market eventually broke through to push the 0.7835 gradually before holding 0.7820 area for the close.
- EUR: Running to the 1.2050 in early trading before drifting through to the 1.2030 pausing briefly before dipping to the 1.2020 and ranging around the level through into the grey hours and early European sellers pushing the market to the 1.2010, London moved in and the 1.2000 level so close saw some strong two way trading and the market testing to the 1.1990 level before bouncing and pushing back to the 1.2020 level before slowing its ascent, the market moved through to the NYK opening holding around the 1.2030 level before quickly pushing for the 40 and after a brief pause breaking quickly through to the 1.2070 triggering some weak stops and a slow grind through to the 1.2090 area to range there to the close.
Premiership Results
JPY Jobs/Applications ratio (JAN) A 1.10 | C 1.06 | P 1.06
JPY Capital Spending YoY A -4.8% | P -10.6%
AUD Building Approvals MoM (JAN) A -19.4% | C -3.0% | P 10.9% | R 12.0%
AUD Current Account (Q4) A 14.5b | C 13.1b | P 10.0b
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (MAR) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (FEB) A 6.9% | C 5.6% | P 6.4%
GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (FEB) A 0.7% | C -0.3% | P -0.3% | R -0.2%
EUR German Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -4.5% | C -0.3% | P -9.6% | R -9.1%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A 44.4k | P 76.2k
EUR German Unemployment Change (FEB) A 9k | C -13k | P -41k | R -37k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
EUR CPI YoY (FEB) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
EUR Core CPI YoY (FEB) A 1.1% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
CAD GDP MoM (DEC) A 0.1% | C 0.3% | P 0.7% | R 0.8%
CAD GDP YoY (Q4) A -3.23% | P -5.16% | R -5.33%
CAD GDP QoQ (Q4) A 2.3% | P 8.9%
CAD Annualized QoQ (Q4) A 9.6% | C 7.5% | P 40.5% | R 40.6%
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
EUR ECB’s McCaul Speaks
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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