Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.022 | EURUSD 1.20626 | AUDUSD 0.77757 | NZDUSD 0.7254 | USDCAD 1.26556 | USDCHF 0.91997 | GBPUSD 1.39485 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20679 | 1.20436
USDJPY 107.110 | 106.971
GBPUSD 1.39652 | 1.39217
USDCHF 0.92011 | 0.91904
AUDUSD 0.77981 | 0.77531
NZDUSD 0.72728 | 0.72272
USDCAD 1.26755 | 1.26494
EURCHF 1.10940 | 1.10766
EURGBP 0.86538 | 0.86378
EURJPY 129.116 | 128.927
For Today
- GBP: Quick jump higher on the open testing through the 1.3960 level before drifting back to the opening 1.3950 level and the opening in Tokyo saw a quick move through to the 1.3930 level, a short pause before testing towards the 1.3920 area before returning to run through the bulk of the session holding around the 1.3940 area and running back to the opening levels for the move to the grey hours, downside bids into the 1.3850 area with likely weak stops on a move through before stronger bids likely into the 1.3800 level and increasing congestion possible to the 1.3750 area before weakness reappears to the downside, topside offer light through the 1.4000 with limited sentimental offers before weak stops appear and the market likely to be weak through to close to 1.4100 where the market sees stronger offers.
- JPY: A very limited session with the market barely scraping a 10 pip range for the most part, opening around the 107.00 area the market managed to make the 107.10 level into the Tokyo opening before dipping through for the Tokyo fix testing below the figure level holding the 106.97 area before returning to above the figure level and ranging just above the level. Topside offers continue through to the 107.20 level with weak stops possible on a breakthrough the level and limited offers through to the 107.40-60 area before opening to stronger offers through the 107.80 area possibly extending through the figure level and strong option interest. Downside bids light through to the 106.50 area with light congestion before weakness appears to the 106.00 level a little stronger bid with weak stops on a move through the 105.80 before stronger bids appear through the 105.50 level increasing to the 105.00 area.
- AUD: A little choppy before Tokyo and then dipping quickly away to test through to the 0.7750 before moving through the Tokyo fix rising steadily to push to the 0.7790 level in a long steady rise, midsession holding the area before dipping into the 0.7775 area before starting another steady rise through to the 78 cents level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7700 area and likely to be strong however, weak stops through the 0.7680 area with the market likely only to open a short distance before stronger bids again appear and the market struggles for any further downside movement, Topside offers light through the 78 cents level with weak stops likely above the level and the 79 cents level then likely to open quickly and very little to curb the push.
- EUR: Dropping from the opening in a limited ranging market, moving from the 1.2065 area the market tested quickly through to the 1.2045 level to more or less set the range for the session ranging around the 1.2050-60 level through to the grey hours, Topside offers 1.2180-1.2220 level with weak stops above the level and increasing on any push above the 1.2250 level with possible strong offers into the 1.2300 level Downside bids into the 1.2000 area with weak stops likely on a move through to the 1.1980 area congestion around the sentimental 1.1950 area before stronger bids are likely into the 1.1900 levels.
Overnight News
USD:
Biden backs tighter limits on checks to speed relief bill – BBG
US lawmakers reintroduce bill to bar some Chinese – SMP
Senate democrats change eligibility for direct payments in Covid aid bill – DJ
AUD/CNY:
China-Australia relations: Lucrative international education sector takes hit amid trade row – SMP
EUR/TWD:
Lithuania to open trade office, the latest sign of discontent with China – SMP
Merkel sets path for gradually easing Germany’s lockdown – BBG
Merkel: will meet again with state leaders on March 22 – BBG
Merkel: German will allow more flexibility for vaccinations – BBG
GBP:
Sunak plans highest UK taxes since 1960s to pay Pandemic Bill – BBG
AUD:
Morrison to launch 10-year critical minerals value add plan – AFR
CNY/TWD:
Chinese military in S. China Sea landing drill as Taiwan tensions persist – SMP
Today’s Data
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
AUD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
AUD Trade Balance (JAN) A 10.142b | C 6.500b | P 6.785b
AUD RBA Kearns Speaks
0830 EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (FEB) A | P 46.6
0900 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
0930 GBP Construction PMI (FEB) A | C 51.0 | P 49.2
1000 EUR Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -1.1% | P 2.0%
1000 EUR Unemployment Rate (JAN) A | C 8.3% | P 8.3%
? USD OPEC Meeting
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 750k | P 730k
1330 USD Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q4) A | C -4.7% | P -4.8%
1330 USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q4) A | C 6.6% | P 6.8%
1330 CAD Labour Productivity QoQ (Q4) A | P -10.3%
1500 USD Factory Orders MoM (JAN) A | C 2.1% | P 1.1%
1705 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Dipping from the opening to hold the 1.3950 area to move through into the Tokyo session pushing slowly to just above the 1.3965 area and then range around the 1.3960 level through into the grey hours, the move into the grey hours saw the market dipping through to the early lows trading to the 1.3935 area before London stepped in and pushed back to test the 1.3980 area drifting a little before a second push took the market through the 1.4000 level, a drift to the Spring Budget announcement and the market holding generally through the comments dipping towards the end before rallying through to the 1.3985 area for the close in London and a slow drift back to the 1.3950 level for the close.
- JPY: A slow steady rise for the most part through the session with the market opening on its lows just below the 106.70 area and moving into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 106.80 level and then continuing slowly into the grey hours pushing the 106.90 area, quick dip into the early part of the grey hours saw the market back below the 106.80 level and then recovering just as quickly to test through the highs for the move into the London opening, Eventually moving off the 106.90 level deeper into the new session the market slowly gained the 107.00 level before rejecting the figure level and hitting the 106.80 area in a quick move with weak stops triggered however, the buyers moved back in with GBPJPY buying seemingly moving through on the Budget chatter only to fail to break the 107.20 area this time and then slowly recovering from the 106.85 area to the close holding the figure level.
- AUD: Asia saw a range bound market with the market opening around the 0.7820 level testing into the mid-teens before rising steadily through the opening in Tokyo to push the 0.7840 for the high of the day, a slow drift through into the grey hours testing into the London opening the 0.7810 area, popping to the 0.7840 area again and then holding through early morning around the 0.7830 level, the moving into the NYK session saw the market adrift again and dipping from the 0.7810 lows for a quick push to the 0.7790 area and then slowly through to the 0.7780 level before recovering back to the figure level and a steady drift to the close.
- EUR: A very quiet range through to the grey hours, opening around the 1.2085 and ranging through the 1.2090 level before drifting just below the 1.2085 area, eventually testing the 1.2080 into the grey hours and quickly stabs above the 1.2100 level drops back again to the 1.2075 level before jumping again through to the 1.2110 area for the high of the day and steadily dropping off from the level testing through to the 1.2050 area before finding a base and struggling to move lower and while the market recovered into the NYK session to the 1.2080 area it drifted from that level to the 1.2065 area for the close.
Premiership Results
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 7.356m | P 1.026m
NZD Building Consents MoM (JAN) A 2.1% | P 4.9% | R 5.1%
AUD GDP YoY (Q4) A -1.1% | C -1.8% | P -3.8% | R -3.7%
AUD GDP QoQ (Q4) A 3.1% | C 2.5% | P 3.3% | R 3.4%
JPY Services PMI (FEB) A 46.3 | P 46.1
CNY Caixin Services PMI (FEB) A 51.5 | P 52.0
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (FEB) A 51.7 | P 52.8
CHF CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.1%
EUR Spanish Services PMI (FEB) A 43.1 | C 43.0 | P 41.7
EUR German Services PMI (FEB) A 45.7 | C 45.9 | P 46.7
EUR Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A 48.8 | C 48.1 | P 47.8
EUR Services PMI (FEB) A 45.7 | C 44.7 | P 45.4
GBP Composite PMI (FEB) A 49.6 | C 49.8 | P 41.2
GBP Services PMI (FEB) A 49.5 | C 49.7 | P 39.5
GBP Annual Budget Release
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (FEB) A 117k | C 177k | P 174k | R 195k
CAD Building Permits MoM (JAN) A 8.2% | C 3.5% | P -4.1% | R -4.4%
USD Markit Composite PMI (FEB) A 59.5| C 58.8 | P 58.7
USD Services PMI (FEB) A 59.8 | C 58.9 | P 58.3
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (FEB) A 52.7 | P 55.2
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (FEB) A 55.3 | C 58.7 | P 58.7
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 21.563m | C -0.928m | P 1.285m
GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD Beige Book
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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