Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.907 | EURUSD 1.18459 | AUDUSD 0.76482 | NZDUSD 0.7139 | USDCAD 1.26658 | USDCHF 0.93678 | GBPUSD 1.38228 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.18670 | 1.18355
USDJPY 109.235 | 108.878
GBPUSD 1.38506 | 1.38017
USDCHF 0.93742 | 0.93547
AUDUSD 0.76671 | 0.76218
NZDUSD 0.71332 | 0.71031
USDCAD 1.26826 | 1.26471
EURCHF 1.11039 | 1.10913
EURGBP 0.85769 | 0.85632
EURJPY 129.500 | 128.996
For Today
- GBP: Dipping from the opening around the 1.3820 through to just above the 1.3800 level an once deeper into the Tokyo session a steady rise through to the 1.3850 level with some GBPJPY buying moving through the market before holding quietly around the 1.3840 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers weak back through the 1.3900 level and light stops limited at best before running into light offers around the 1.3950 area and then increasing resistance through to the 1.4000 before slightly stronger stops appear and the market opens to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: The move into the Tokyo session saw a quick move through the 109.00 level from the opening around the 108.90 area to push gradually through to the 109.20 level before holding steady around the level through to the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7645 area the market spiked to above the 0.7660 area before dipping back and then starting a more steady rise through into the Tokyo session to the same highs, a slow drift through the session saw some light AUD selling through to the 0.7620 area before starting a slow recovery through into the latter part of the session testing towards the 0.7670 level to hold around the 0.7660 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7700-20 area with limited potential for stops however, the offers don’t really look that strong until the 0.7800-20 areas with weak stops likely beyond that area to open up the potential for another higher run, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: A slight follow through from yesterday’s sell off before pushing through to the 1.1835 level for the lows of the day and a slow recovery from there into the 1.1865area to hold quietly around the level for the move into the grey hours, Congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through the 1.1920 area and weak stops possibly setting up a small short squeeze through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear.
Overnight News
GBP:
UK retail sales return to mild growth, hint at greater recovery in April – DJ
CNY:
PBoC to improve money supply mechanism – Deputy Gov. – BBG
Chinese Lenders have extended USD7.6b in pandemic debt relief – SMP
China state funds said to buy stocks after plunge escalated
China’s debt reduction campaign a 2021 priority as coronavirus drives surge in borrowing – SMP
USD:
Republican Chip Roy reintroduces legislation to mandate installation of debt clocks in congress – GO1
AUD:
RBA needs stimulus-exit plan to avoid asset bubbles says Costello – BBG
WHO:
A year on, WHO says Covid early alarm fell on some deaf ears
Today’s Data
JPY Household Spending YoY A -6.1% | P -0.6%
JPY Household Spending MoM A -7.3% | P 0.9%
JPY GDP QoQ (Q4) A 2.8% | C 3.0% | P 3.0%
JPY GDP YoY (Q4) A 11.7% | C 12.8% | P 12.7%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence A 0.0 | P 7.0
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (FEB) A 9.5% | P 7.1%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (FEB) A 16 | P 10
0700 EUR German Trade Balance (JAN) A | C 16.4b | P 16.1b
1000 EUR GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
1000 EUR GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -5.0% | P -5.0%
1700 USD WASDE Report
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P 7.356m
2200 AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
2305 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
2330 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (MAR) A | P 1.9%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Rangy day with the early market opening unchanged and immediately running through to the 1.3860 level before running out of options for a short period, the market then tested through into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.3865 level before dipping back and ranging quietly around the 1.3850 level, once the fix was over the market drifted through the Tokyo midsession falling through to the 1.3810 level and the range then settling down to slowly rise with the markets moving in roughly a 30/40 pip range, rising from the London opening lows just above the 1.3800 level and then pushing through and removing some weak shorts to the 1.3845 level and then bounce back and forwards with the highs progressing through into the NYK session dipping from the 1.3855 area to test towards the lows again, London close saw the market again around the 1.3850 level and then a slow drift into the close.
- JPY: After a reasonable quiet session through Asia for the USDJPY struggling with the 108.50 area the market pushed off the opening level around the 108.30 area to make the high a couple of times before moving into the London session before breaking and starting a steady run through into the London close to hold around the 108.95 area through to the day’s close.
- AUD: Early high into the Tokyo open testing through the 0.7720 area before dipping to trade the 0.7700-10 level into Tokyo midsession before breaking down managing to hold around the 0.7690 area into the grey hours, early London sellers drifting through the opening testing through to the 0.7640 area to form a base and rising a little through into the NYK before drifting again into the close in quiet trading.
- EUR: Early highs into the Tokyo session testing lightly above the 1.1930 area before steadily dipping through to the 1.1900 level for the move into the grey hours, early European followed by early European with some talk of Tokyo cutting back foreign investments through the day, the move into early morning saw the market enter the 1.1880-65 range and hold through to the NYK session before starting a dip through to hold the 1.1850 area for the move to the close.
Premiership Results
CNY Trade Balance USD (FEB) A 103.25b | C 60.00b | P 78.17b
CNY Exports YoY (FEB) A 60.6% | C 38.9% | P 18.1%
CNY Imports YoY (FEB) A 22.2% | C 15.0% | P 6.5%
JPY Current Account n.s.a. (JAN) A 0.647t | C 1.230t | P 1.166t
CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (FEB) A 3.6% | P 3.7%
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB) A 3.6% | C 3.6% | P 3.5%
EUR German Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A -2.5% | C 0.2% | P 0.0% | R 1.9%
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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