Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.393 | EURUSD 1.19288 | AUDUSD 0.77358 | NZDUSD 0.71792 | USDCAD 1.26196 | USDCHF 0.92966 | GBPUSD 1.39359 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19346 | 1.19152
USDJPY 108.709 | 108.356
GBPUSD 1.39401 | 1.39196
USDCHF 0.93076 | 0.92885
AUDUSD 0.77489 | 0.77235
NZDUSD 0.72082 | 0.71622
USDCAD 1.26248 | 1.26008
EURCHF 1.11019 | 1.10872
EURGBP 0.85642 | 0.85559
EURJPY 129.645 | 129.218
For Today
- GBP: Opening a little weaker and then dipping through into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.3920 area before rallying through to the 1.3940 to set the range for the session, the market then settled down for the move through the midsession to the grey hours holding quietly in the 1.3930-40 levels, topside offers around the 1.3950 area and then increasing resistance through to the 1.4000 before slightly stronger stops appear and the market opens to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: A quiet move into the Tokyo session holding just above the 108.40 level and then testing quickly through to the 108.35 low and then moving higher for the Fix testing through to the 108.50 area, a slow rise through to midsession slowly pushing for the 108.60 level before the move through to the grey hours saw a limited run before the final hour as the market steadily pushed off the 108.50 area to test the 108.70 level for Tokyo Lunch, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Opening a little lower again and spiking to fill the small gap before pushing into the Tokyo session holding the 0.7730 area to test to the 0.7740 level before drifting through to the 0.7725 area holding for a brief period before starting to slowly push to the 0.7750 and hold around the 0.7745 area for the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7700-20 area with limited potential for stops however, the offers don’t really look that strong until the 0.7800-20 areas with weak stops likely beyond that area to open up the potential for another higher run, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Quiet range for the Euro with the market drifting from the 1.1930 area opening to test through the Tokyo fix to the 1.1916 level and recover after an hour or so to then press to the 1.1935 level before ranging around the 1.1930 for the grey hours, Congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through the 1.1920 area and weak stops possibly setting up a small short squeeze through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear into the 1.2000 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.1950 area with offers then starting to increase through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops above the 1.2020 level before the offers return increasing into the 1.2040-60 level.
Overnight News
CNY/RUB:
China’s coal imports from Russia may increase as supply from Australia expected to decline – SMP
JPY:
Japanese bought net 98.9b Yen overseas debt last week – BBG
USD:
New Stimulus package brings big benefits to the middle class – NYT
TWD/USD:
Taiwan’s Yang: US may list Taiwan as currency manipulator – BBG
AUD:
Sydney property prices hit record high – AFR
Today’s Data
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks
GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB) A 52% | C 45% | P 50%
1245 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (MAR) A | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1245 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A | P 0.25%7
1245 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (MAR)
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 725k | P 745k
1330 EUR ECB Press Conference
1500 USD JOLTs Job openings (JAN) A | C 6.60m | P 6.646m
1830 CAD BoC Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks
2130 NZD Business NZ PMI (FEB) A | P 57.5
2350 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions A | P 21.6
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Early high testing the 1.3900 level then a gradual drifting through the Asian session to the grey hours pushing through the 1.3850 level before London moved in and reversed the trend and gradually pushed through to above the 1.3900 level as continuing wrangling chatter through the media continued on Vaccines and deal breaking, with the market then dipping a little before moving through into the early part of the US session testing to the 1.3935 level as the wave ended dipping through the 1.3900 area before rising again to push to a close holding the highs above the 1.3935 area.
- JPY: Opening above the 108.50 level the market moved quietly through into the Tokyo session quickly moving to the 108.70 area before ranging around the 108.60 area before pushing past the Tokyo Fix lows to test through to the 108.80 level steadily before holding briefly around the level and finally pushing through the 108.90 areas for the high of the day before drifting through to the London session holding 108.70 area, light buying through into the early NYK session and then dropping quickly on the official opening to test the 108.35 area and the low of the day, a limited recovery through to the London close before slowly drifting through to hold near the lows for the close.
- AUD: Opening lower after Gov. Lowe’s commentary around the 0.7710 area before steadily filling the gap on the charts and moving through into the Tokyo session to slip lower through to the 0.7700 before dropping quickly through to the 0.7680 area to pause through to the grey hours, a limited dip to the lows around the 0.7670 area and the move through into the London session saw the market rising through to the 0.7710 area before pausing and dipping to move around the 77 cents level into the NYK session, a quick move higher from the opening in NYK saw the high for the day just above the 0.7745 area dipping just as quickly back before slowly moving off the 0.7700 area through to hold around the 0.7735 to the close.
- EUR: Drifting a little from the opening highs slipping from above the 109.00 level to steadily move to the 1.1880 area and a slower drift through to make the lows on the move into the grey hours testing the 1.1870 level the move through into the London session saw the market moving steadily through to the 1.1900 area and then drifting through to the NYK session before USD selling saw the market move through to the 1.1920 into the NYK Opening and then dipping back to the 1.1890 and a slow steady rise through to the high of the day pushing the 1.1930 level.
Premiership Results
AUD RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (MAR) A 2.6% | P 1.9%
CNY CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.6% | C 0.4% | P 1.0%
CNY CPI YoY (FEB) A -0.2% | C -0.4% | P -0.3%
CNY PPI YoY (FEB) A 1.7% | C 1.5% | P 0.3%
USD Core CPI YoY (FEB) A 1.3% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
USD Core CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.1% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.3%
CAD BoC Rate Statement
CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 13.798m | P 0.485m
USD Federal Budget Balance (FEB) A -311.0b | C -265.0b | P 163.0b
Best Regards
Andy
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