Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.031 | EURUSD 1.19534 | AUDUSD 0.7761 | NZDUSD 0.71768 | USDCAD 1.24777 | USDCHF 0.92961 | GBPUSD 1.39206 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19670 | 1.19351
USDJPY 109.248 | 108.921
GBPUSD 1.39497 | 1.39107
USDCHF 0.93033 | 0.92775
AUDUSD 0.77752 | 0.77386
NZDUSD 0.72162 | 0.71718
USDCAD 1.24827 | 1.24556
EURCHF 1.11080 | 1.11005
EURGBP 0.85847 | 0.85754
EURJPY 130.488 | 130.177
For Today
- GBP: Opening unchanged the market made a steady rise through into the Tokyo session pushing the 1.3950 level before drifting back to run just above the opening 1.3920 level for the move through into the grey hours, topside offers around the 1.4000 level and slightly stronger stops appear for the market to open to a move through to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: Initially opening unchanged a little dip to the 109.00 level saw the market slowly pushing through to the 109.10 area into Tokyo and then dipping through to the Tokyo fix testing through the 109.00 level pushing to just above the 108.90 area before bouncing and heading to the 109.20 level to hold quietly through to the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: A little lower for the opening saw the market turning just below the 0.7750 area to head to the highs just above the 0.7770 level for the move through early Tokyo, the market dropped back from the 0.7775 highs to hold initially in the 0.7745 level and then slip through to the 0.7740 area for the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7780-0.7820 area with weak stops through the possible strong offers to open a slow grind through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, , downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Ranging around the 1.1950 opening area through to deep into the session, pushing through to close to the 1.1970 area before dipping back to the 1.1940 area however, the market continued to struggle with the level and the move through into the grey hours saw the market testing into the 1.1935 area, Congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through the 1.1920 area and weak stops possibly setting up a small short squeeze through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear into the 1.2000 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.1950 area with offers then starting to increase through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops above the 1.2020 level before the offers return increasing into the 1.2040-60 level.
Overnight News
MXN:
Mexico Central Bank digesting yield spike ahead of rate decision – BBG
CNY:
China’s steel city Tangshan vows to crack down on pollution after weeks of heavy smog – SMP
USD:
Fed to hike rates in 2023 but dots won’t show it, economists say – BBG
Yellen says US inflation risk remains small, manageable – BBG
GBP/SEK:
AstraZeneca says no evidence vaccine increases blood clot risk – BBG
AstraZeneca’s EU vaccine disaster deepens on clots, Nationalism – BBG
EUR:
Merkel’s party slumps to historic low in German state votes – BBG
Merkel’s party heads for state defeats and could get worse – BBG
AUD:
RBA’s Lowe says digital investment crucial to future prosperity – BBG
Mercury Consortium to buy wind farm operator tilt renewables – DJ
Today’s Data
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (FEB) A 35.0% | C 40.0% | P 2.9%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (FEB) A 35.1% | C 30.0% | P 7.3%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (FEB) A 35.1% | P 2.8%
CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate A 5.5% | P 5.2%
CNY NBS Press Conference
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A 22.9% | P -69.4%
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A -1.7% | P -0.4% | R -0.3%
Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1215 CAD Housing Starts (FEB) A | C 245.0k | P 282.4k
1230 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (MAR) A | C 14.50 | P 12.10
1230 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (JAN) A | C 2.5% | P 0.9%
2000 USD TIC Net Long Term Transactions (JAN) A | P 121.0b
2000 NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment A | P 106.0
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly and then rising through the Tokyo fix to top out around the 1.4005 area before slowly drifting through to the 1.3975 areas for the grey hours, the move through into the London session saw the GBP falling steadily back moving through the 1.3950 area into the Opening and then following through to the 1.3910 level before finding some limited bids, the recovery was over in about an hour having been unable to push beyond the 1.3935 area and dipped a second time to the 1.3880 level before holding quietly around the 1.3900 level for the move into the NYK session, light selling through to the 1.3865 area before starting a steady recovery through to the 1.3925 level through the London close and then holding around the 1.3920 to the close.
- JPY: Lows made just after the opening to fill a small gap and then moving off the 108.50 in a steady tight channel to the 108.80 before holding through to the grey hours before quickly pushing the 108.90 level, after a brief pause another run through the London opening to make the highs just above the 109.15 level before ranging around the 109.00/15 area through to the close with a limited dip on the London close saw the market close just above the 109.00 level.
- AUD: Similar pattern for the AUD with early market making the high around the Tokyo fix testing the 0.7800 level before dropping steadily off through to the 0.7770 area before bouncing a little before heading into the Grey hours falling away from the 0.7785 areas testing through to the 0.7760 level before spending a few hours grinding through to the 0.7740 area into the London session, the move through London and into the NYK session saw the dips increasing through to the 0.7725 area but always remaining focused on the 0.7750 area and the move to the close saw the market recovering quickly through to the 0.7775 area for a slow drift to the close.
- EUR: Limited test to just short of the 1.1990 level before moving deeper into the Tokyo session falling steadily off through to the 1.1960 areas and holding through to the grey hours before renewing the move lower steadily moving through into early morning in London testing the 1.1910 level for the low of the day rising through to the NYK session test the 1.1940 area before dipping back to the lows and then running higher again to the 1.1950 area and a tight range to the close.
Premiership Results
NZD Business NZ PMI (FEB) A 53.4 | P 57.5
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions A 1.6 | P 21.6
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A | P -69.4%
GBP GDP MoM A -2.9% | P -1.2%
GBP GDP YoY A -9.2% | P -8.6%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A -1.5% | C -0.6% | P 0.2%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (JAN) A -2.3% | C -0.8% | P 0.3%
GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A -1.7% | P 1.0%
GBP Trade Balance (JAN) A -9.83b | C -12.50b | P -14.32b
GBP Trade Balance non-EU (JAN) A -1.76b | C -4.95b | P -5.20b
EUR German CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 0.8%
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (FEB) A 0.0% | C 0.6% | P 0.5%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (FEB) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.4%
EUR Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A 0.8% | C 0.2% | P -1.6% | R -0.1%
USD Core PPI MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 1.2%
USD PPI MoM (FEB) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 1.3%
CAD Employment Change (FEB) A 259.2k | C 75.0k | P -212.8k
CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 8.2% | C 9.2% | P 9.4%
CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (JAN) A | C 5.0% | P -1.3%
GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A -2.0% | P -2.5% | R -1.7%
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (MAR) (P) A 77.5 | C 74.0 | P 70.7
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MAR) (P) A 83.0 | C 78.5 | P 76.8
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 402 | P 402
USD US Fed Budget A -311.0b | P -163.0b
Best Regards
Andy
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