Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.003 | EURUSD 1.19025 | AUDUSD 0.77455 | NZDUSD 0.71919 | USDCAD 1.24458 | USDCHF 0.92471 | GBPUSD 1.38925 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19060 | 1.18936
USDJPY 109.169 | 108.979
GBPUSD 1.39046 | 1.38797
USDCHF 0.92621 | 0.92428
AUDUSD 0.77472 | 0.77248
NZDUSD 0.71947 | 0.71769
USDCAD 1.24592 | 1.24306
EURCHF 1.10200 | 1.10068
EURGBP 0.85701 | 0.85611
EURJPY 129.897 | 129.718
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise through the 1.3900 level before moving into the Tokyo fix and dipping back from the 1.3905 area to the opening level following through after a short period to test to the 1.3880 area, the balance of the session saw the market regaining the opening levels to just short of the 1.3900 area for the grey hours, topside offers around the 1.4000 level and slightly stronger stops appear for the market to open to a move through to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.00 area saw the low just through the level before heading into the Tokyo session pushing gradually through to the 109.17 area for the high of the session before drifting through to hold around the 109.10 area for the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Moving through into the Tokyo session holding around the highs of the session to then drift through the early Tokyo period testing through to the 0.7725 area for the lows before returning to the 0.7735 level for the move to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7780-0.7820 area with weak stops through the possible strong offers to open a slow grind through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, , downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Light trading around the opening levels moving through into the Tokyo session dipping through to the 1.1890 area before rising slowly through to hold the 1.1900 level through into the grey hours, Congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through the 1.1920 area and weak stops possibly setting up a small short squeeze through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear into the 1.2000 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.1950 area with offers then starting to increase through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops above the 1.2020 level before the offers return increasing into the 1.2040-60 level.
Overnight News
USD/CNY:
US Foresees difficult talks with China at Alaska meeting – BBG
AUD:
RBA’s Kent sees business failures rising as stimulus withdrawn – BBG
Kent: Would consider response if lending standards deteriorated
USD/RUB:
US to unveil sanctions vs. Russia as early as next week – CNN
USD/CNY/IRR:
US to also sanction Iran, China for election meddling – CNN
USD:
Scorched earth Senate: McConnell warns of GOP retribution if Democrats eliminate filibuster – AXS
CNY/AUD:
China Australia relations: Barley dispute going to WTO as headwinds loom in Australia’s alternative markets – SMP
Today’s Data
NZD Current Account YoY (Q4) A -2.55b | C -2.59b | P 2.55b
NZD Current Account QoQ (Q4) A -2.70b | C -2.88b | P -3.52m
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A -0.04t | P 0.39t | R 0.55t
JPY Exports YoY (FEB) A -4.5% | C -0.8% | P 6.4%
JPY Trade Balance (FEB) A 217.4b | C 420.0b | P -325.4b
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (FEB) A | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
1000 EUR CPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (FEB) A | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
1230 USD Building Permits (FEB) A | C 1.750m | P 1.886m
1230 USD Building Permits MoM (FEB) A | P 10.7%
1230 USD Housing Starts MoM (FEB) A | P -6.0%
1230 USD Housing Starts (FEB) A | C 1.560m | P 1.580m
1230 CAD Core CPI MoM (FEB) A | P 0.5%
1230 CAD Core CPI YoY (FEB) A | C 1.4% | P 1.6%
1230 CAD CPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.7% | P 0.6%
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C 2.964m | P 13.798m
1430 USD German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
1800 USD Interest Rate Projection 1st Yr (Q1) A | P 0.1
1800 USD Interest Rate Projection 2nd Yr (Q1) A | P 0.1
1800 USD Interest Rate Projection Present (Q1) A | P 0.1
1800 USD Interest Rate Projection Longer (Q1) A | P 2.5
1800 USD FOMC Economic Projections
1800 USD FOMC Statement
1800 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
1830 USD FOMC Press Conference
2145 NZD GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.1% | P 14.0%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: The move through the Asian session saw the market holding quietly around the 1.3900 through into Tokyo before steadily drifting through to hold the 1.3870 level through to the grey hours, selling through to the 1.3025 area initially with a limited recovery to the 1.3840 level before London opened and the market sold through to the 1.3810 for the low of the day, another day of strong comments between the EU and UK saw the Cable start to rise again pushing through to the 1.3895 area into the NYK opening and then ranging a little higher through to the close having broken through to the 1.3905 areas.
- JPY: A tight range through the Asian session with Tokyo taking the market up from the early 109.10 level to range around the 109.20 area with a minor push through to the 109.25 level before holding around 109.15 through to the grey hours and a quick push through to test towards the 109.30 area, the move into the London session saw steady USD selling through to break through to the 108.80 level before finding stronger bids to hold the market and once NYK moved in the market recovered to the 109.00 area to range to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the highs of the day just short of the 0.7760 area and a slow drift through to the 0.7740 area for the move into the Tokyo session, a slow rise back to the 0.7750 area to range into the grey hours, moving through early London testing the 0.7720 area before dipping just after the opening to hit the 0.7710 level and bounce through to the 0.7740 level and a slow rise through to the 0.7750 area to fail to make new highs and then holding in a tight range through to the close just above the 0.7740 area.
- EUR: Ranging around the opening 1.1930 level saw the market eventually pushing through to towards the 1.1940 before dipping through to the grey hours testing lightly around the 1.1920 area for the London opening, a quiet rise through to the highs of the day around the 1.1950 level before dropping off again through this time to the 1.1900 ;level holding for a brief period through the NYK session and then dipping through to the 1.1880 area low of the day a limited recovery through to the 1.1900 for a quiet range.
Premiership Results
AUD House Price Index QoQ (Q4) A 3.0% | C 2.0% | P 0.8%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
JPY BoJ Gov. Kuroda Speaks
JPY Industrial Production MoM (JAN) (P) A 4.3% | P 1.0%
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (MAR) A -61.0 | C -62.0 | P -67.2
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (MAR) A 76.6 | C 74 | P 71.2
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (MAR) A 74.0 | P 69.6
USD Core Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A -2.7% | C -0.1% | P 5.9% | R 8.3%
USD Export Price Index MoM (FEB) A 1.6% | C 0.9% | P 2.5%
USD Import Price Index MoM (FEB) A 1.3% | C 1.2% | P 1.4%
USD Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A -3.0% | C -0.5% | P 5.3% | R 7.6%
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (JAN) A 1.27b | P 5.08b | R 5.33b
USD Industrial Production YoY (FEB) A -4.25% | P -1.83% | R -1.95%
USD Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A -2.2% | C 0.3% | P 0.9% | R 1.1%
USD Business Inventories (MoM) (JAN) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.6% | R 0.8%
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (JAN) A -0.1% | P -0.2%
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -1.000m | P 12.792m
Best Regards
Andy
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