Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.843 | EURUSD 1.19802 | AUDUSD 0.77966 | NZDUSD 0.71586| USDCAD 1.24039 | USDCHF 0.92251 | GBPUSD 1.39637 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19880 | 1.19556
USDJPY 109.127 | 108.631
GBPUSD 1.39776 | 1.39357
USDCHF 0.92418 | 0.92222
AUDUSD 0.78355 | 0.77968
NZDUSD 0.72583 | 0.72255
USDCAD 1.24091 | 1.23779
EURCHF 1.10600 | 1.1047
EURGBP 0.85838 | 0.85735
EURJPY 130.659 | 130.075
For Today
- GBP: A light rise to the high of the session testing towards the 1.3980 level before slowly drifting through to the 1.3950 area to range through midsession in the area, a light selloff again to test the 1.3935 level before returning to the 1.3950 area for the move into the grey hours, topside offers around the 1.4000 level and slightly stronger stops appear for the market to open to a move through to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: Dipping from the opening 108.85 area to test the 108.70 level before bouncing into the Tokyo session pushing steadily through to the Fix to test above the 109.10 level, a slight drift saw the market drop quickly back on the back of the widened target yield band news and quickly tested the 108.60 areas before again bouncing and ranging around the 108.90 level through to the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Opening quietly just below the 78 cents level and slowly pushed through to the 0.7835 area into the Tokyo session with the help of stronger employment numbers, the move through the rest of the session saw the market ranging around the 0.7825 levels ranging through to the 0.7820 level but unable to push on for the day, Topside offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Light trading through the early part of the session before dipping slowly lower through the AUD numbers and the market tested back to the 1.1970 area with the market ranging quietly for a period before again dipping 10 pips to the 1.1960 for a range through to the grey hours, light bids through the 1.19 levels before weak stops through the 1.1880 area before stronger congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear into the 1.2000 level. Stronger stops likely on a move through the 1.2020 level with some light resistance into the 1.2050 area and stronger offers then appearing through to the 1.2100 level.
Overnight News
CNY/USD:
China plans to ask US to roll back Trump policies in Alaska meeting – DJ
JPY:
BoJ to widen target yield band to plus/minus 0.25% – NIKKEI
WHO:
Experts say countries should keep using AstraZeneca jab
GBP/EUR:
UK accuses EU of brinkmanship over vaccine export threat – RTR’s
EUR:
France Coronavirus cases surge as new restrictions loom – AFP
Today’s Data
NZD GDP QoQ (Q4) A -1.0% | C 0.1% | P 14.0% | R 13.9%
AUD Employment Change (FEB) A 88.7k | C 30.0k | P 29.1k
AUD Full Employment Change (FEB) A 89.1k | P 59.0k
AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 5.8% | C 6.3% | P 6.4%
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks
0730 CHF PPI MoM (FEB) A | P 0.3%
0800 EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
0830 EUR ECB McCaul Speaks
1000 EUR Wages in Eurozone YoY (Q4) A | P 2.20%
1000 EUR Trade Balance (JAN) A | C 25.3b | P 29.2b
1030 EUR ECB LTRO A | P 174.5b
1100 EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
1200 GBP BoE MPC Vote Change A | C 9 | P 9
1200 GBP BoE QE Total (MAR) A | C 875b | P 875b
1200 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (MAR) A | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
1200 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 700k | P 712k
1230 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (MAR) A | C 23.0 | P 23.1
1230 USD Philly Fed Employment (MAR) A | P 25.3
1230 CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (FEB) A | P 0.7%
1310 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1430 EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
1800 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
2330 JPY National Core CPI YoY (FEB) A | C -0.4% | P -0.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow rise from the opening around the 1.3895 area pushing slowly above the 1.3900 level before dipping through to the 1.3880 level for the move through the Tokyo fix to range between there and the 1.3900 levels for the move into the grey hours with the market again on the rise, early Europeans and then London buyers saw the market testing above the 1.3930 level before ranging in the 1.3900-25 range through into the NYK session again losing ground pushing through to the 1.3870 level and eventually dipping through to the 1.3850 level for the FOMC and a quick rise through to the 1.3920 level and again moving after a brief pause to the 1.3950 level and a steady rise through to the close testing the 1.3975 area for the high of the day.
- JPY: A steady rise through the day from the opening around the 109.00 level with early lows made around the 108.98 area, moving through the Tokyo opening saw the market slowly rising through to the 109.15 area before ranging through to the grey hours holding the 109.10 area and extending the high slightly through the 109.20 level before drifting a little for the move into the grey hours,
- AUD: A slow drift through the day to the FOMC, opening around the 0.7745 level and the high for the early part of the day saw the market unable to push the 0.7750 level and then drifting from the Tokyo opening to range around the 0.7735 level and dipping a couple of times to the 0.7725 area through to London, early London saw the same range however, by mid-morning the market had tested the 0.7710 area and the move through into NYK and pre-FOMC saw the 0.7700 lightly broken before the not change and dovish commentary saw the Oz quickly through the 78cent level and a slow range just above the level testing the 0.7810 for the run to the close.
- EUR: A very quiet run through the Asian session holding around the opening 1.1900 area with the market unable to break above the 1.1910 level and dipping eventually into the grey hours to the 1.1890 area, the range then increased a little however, it remained around the 1.1910 level through to the FOMC and the USDJPY quickly rose through to the 1.1980 area and then holding in the area through to the close gaining on the dovish commentary from the FOMC.
Premiership Results
NZD Current Account YoY (Q4) A -2.55b | C -2.59b | P 2.55b
NZD Current Account QoQ (Q4) A -2.70b | C -2.88b | P -3.52m
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A -0.04t | P 0.39t | R 0.55t
JPY Exports YoY (FEB) A -4.5% | C -0.8% | P 6.4%
JPY Trade Balance (FEB) A 217.4b | C 420.0b | P -325.4b
EUR Core CPI YoY (FEB) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
EUR CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%
EUR CPI YoY (FEB) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
USD Building Permits (FEB) A 1.682m | C 1.750m | P 1.886m
USD Building Permits MoM (FEB) A -10.8% | P 10.7%
USD Housing Starts MoM (FEB) A -10.3% | P -6.0% | R -5.1%
USD Housing Starts (FEB) A 1.421m | C 1.560m | P 1.580m | R 1.584m
CAD Core CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.3% | P 0.5%
CAD Core CPI YoY (FEB) A 1.2% | C 1.4% | P 1.6%
CAD CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.5% | C 0.7% | P 0.6%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 2.396m | C 2.964m | P 13.798m
USD German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
USD Interest Rate Projection 1st Yr (Q1) A 0.1 | P 0.1
USD Interest Rate Projection 2nd Yr (Q1) A 0.1 | P 0.1
USD Interest Rate Projection Present (Q1) A 0.1% | P 0.1
USD Interest Rate Projection Longer (Q1) A 2.5 | P 2.5
USD FOMC Economic Projections
USD FOMC Statement
USD Fed Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD FOMC Press Conference
Best Regards
Andy
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