Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.585 | EURUSD 1.18495 | AUDUSD 0.7623 | NZDUSD 0.71085 | USDCAD 1.25881 | USDCHF 0.93396 | GBPUSD 1.3752 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.18539 | 1.18364
USDJPY 108.659 | 108.453
GBPUSD 1.37649 | 1.37011
USDCHF 0.93470 | 0.93370
AUDUSD 0.76346 | 0.75945
NZDUSD 0.70185 | 0.69737
USDCAD 1.26020 | 1.25778
EURCHF 1.10701 | 1.10654
EURGBP 0.86427 | 0.86104
EURJPY 128.745 | 128.447
For Today
- GBP: Opening on the highs and then drifting away from the 1.3755 area for a slow test through into the Tokyo session holding the 1.3725 area and basing along that line for several hours before starting a slow push through to the 1.3705 area for the move into the grey hours, light bids through the 1.3700 level with weak stops on a dip through and then stronger bids appearing on a move through to the 1.3650 area with some limited buying through the 1.3600 level before weak congestion appear on further downside weakness, Topside offers light through to the 1.3800 area with weak stops on a move through the level and opening the market to a short squeeze higher through 1.3900 before stronger offers start to appear.
- JPY: A very limited day with the market rising a little from the opening just below the 108.60 area but unable to test beyond the 108.65 level, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market quickly test through to the 108.50 level bounce for the Tokyo fix and then drop a second time to test the 108.45 level for the low of the session before ranging around the 108.50 level through to the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Nervous opening saw the market make the high around the 0.7635 level and then moving into the Tokyo session dipping away with JPY buying helping the AUD through to test the 0.7600 area with the market then unable to resist the gravity of the area and ranging through to the grey hours around the level in tight ranging trading session, Topside offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: A very quiet ranging session, early selling from the opening just above the 1.1850 level to test through to the 1.1835 level and then ranging around the 1.1845 level to the grey hours, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1940-60 area with stronger offers then increasing through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops through the level and stronger offers into the 1.2050 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1800 area with weak stops through the 1.1780 level before stronger bids appear through the 1.1750 level and increasing on a test into the 1.1720 level.
Overnight News
AUD:
Kennedy: Estimates full employment is 4.5-5% jobless rate – BBG
Kennedy: Economic recovery running ahead of expectations – BBG
Kennedy: Jobkeeper adjustment manageable, employment to rise – BBG
Kennedy: End of jobkeeper will see some firms close, jobs lost – BBG
Kennedy: Economy has recovered 85% of decline from CoVid hit – BBG
Treasury Sec. Kennedy delivers testimony – BBG
Kennedy: Still a long way to go before generating wage pressure – BBG
Kennedy: Current fiscal settings appropriate for driving growth – BBG
Kennedy: Treasury’s advice to end jobkeeper at end of March – BBG
Kennedy: Australia well at top of pack with speed of recovery – BBG
Australia wage subsidy expiry could see up to 150k jobs lost – BBG
USD:
Bullard sees FED keeping rates near zero through 2023 – BBG
EUR/HKD:
Hong Kong and Macau suspend vaccinations for batch of BioNTech shots over defective packaging, German manufacturer has suspended delivery of its Cominarty jabs – SCMP
GBP/EUR:
British lawmakers say EU financial market access may not be worth it – RTRs
CNY/TWD:
China threat to Taiwan closer than most think: US Admiral Aquilino – AFP
Today’s Data
NZD Trade Balance YoY (FEB) A 2,360m | P 2,750m | R 2,730m
NZD Trade Balance MoM (FEB) A 181m | P -626m | R -647m
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
0700 GBP CPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P -0.2%
0700 GBP CPI YoY (FEB) A | C 0.8% | P 0.7%
0700 GBP PPI Input MoM (FEB) (P) A | C 0.7% | P 0.7%
0830 EUR German Services PMI (MAR) (P) A | C 46.2 | P 45.7
0830 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (MAR) (P) A | C 60.8 | P 60.7
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (MAR) (P) A | C 57.7 | P 57.9
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (MAR) (P) A | C 49.1 | P 48.8
0900 EUR Services PMI (MAR) (P) A | C 46.0 | P 45.7
0930 GBP Composite PMI (MAR) (P) A | P 49.5
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI (MAR) (P) A | C 54.9 | P 54.9
0930 GBP Services PMI (MAR) (P) A | P 49.5
1230 USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (FEB) A | C 0.6% | P 1.3%
1230 USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (FEB) A | C 0.8% | P 3.4%
1345 USD Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 59.3 | P 58.6
1345 USD Markit Composite PMI (MAR) A | P 59.5
1345 USD Services PMI (MAR) A | C 60.0 | P 59.8
1400 USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
1430 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -0.272m | P 2.396m
1745 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly and moving through into the Tokyo session holding the 1.3860 area with minor attempts to test higher, the move through into the Tokyo session saw the market slowly drifting through to the 1.3835 level before recovering a little and then running again through to the grey hours pushing to the 1.3820 level, early buyers were then superseded by early London sellers as tensions and commentary increased between the UK and EU with mixed commentary appearing in the EU, the fact that strong pressure was brought to bear over Channel tunnel services and requests for substantial funds to keep the company afloat demanded by France now seems to be needed to pay for a new fleet of trains and the actual company has no problems with current funding is sufficient, adding to the Vaccine export blockade tensions, the market bottomed out after a couple of hours into the London session around the 1.3750 level with a limited recovery to the 1.3800 level for the move into NYK and while the NYK session held for a short period USD buyers returned and once the London market left for the day the market dipped through to the 1.3740 area recovering a little for the close.
- JPY: Opening just short of the highs the market needed another run into the Tokyo session to make the high for the day testing towards the 108.88 area before dipping quickly through to the 108.70 level for a quiet range through to the Tokyo session before London moved in and dropped the market quickly through to the 108.40 area with what could be safe haven flows back to Japan, a slow recovery through to the London close with the market above the 108.75 area before dipping a little and holding for the close.
- AUD: Rising a touch from the opening and moving into the Tokyo session to fall back from the 0.7745 area and testing steadily through to the 0.7670 level for the move into the grey hours with very little in the way of upticks the market headed into the London session with a short period of a reprieve before again heading lower to test towards the 0.7650 area before holding quietly around the 0.7680, the end of the London session saw the market again drifting through to the close around the 0.7620 level.
- EUR: The market moved through into the Tokyo session pushing above the 1.1940 level and the high of the day, a slow drift through into the grey hours saw the market test the 1.1920 level however, the move into the grey hours saw a quick dip through to the 1.1900 level for the move into the London session and a tight steady channel lower through to the 1.1845 level and a slow run to the close.
Premiership Results
0700 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (JAN) A 4.8% | C 4.9% | P 4.7%
0700 GBP Claimant Count Change (FEB) A 86.6k | P -20.0k
0700 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (JAN) A -147k | C -167k | P -114k
0700 GBP Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 5.0% | C 5.2% | P 5.1%
0800 EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
0840 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
0955 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1100 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (MAR) A -5 | C -20 | P -24
1100 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1150 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1230 USD Current Account (Q4) A -188.5b | C -189.9b | P -178.5b | R -180.9b
1300 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1300 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
1400 USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
1400 USD New Home Sales (FEB) A 775k | C 875k | P 923k | R 948k
1400 USD New Home Sales MoM (FEB) A -18.2% | C -6.5% | P 4.3% | R 3.2%
1410 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1725 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
1845 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1945 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
2030 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 2.927m | P -1.000m
Best Regards
Andy
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