Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.729 | EURUSD 1.18128 | AUDUSD 0.75824 | NZDUSD 0.6982 | USDCAD 1.25827 | USDCHF 0.93556 | GBPUSD 1.3684 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.18278 | 1.18043
USDJPY 108.992 | 108.717
GBPUSD 1.37079 | 1.36792
USDCHF 0.93626 | 0.93534
AUDUSD 0.76139 | 0.75804
NZDUSD 0.69860 | 0.69589
USDCAD 1.25895 | 1.25646
EURCHF 1.10611 | 1.10527
EURGBP 0.86341 | 0.86256
EURJPY 128.837 | 128.419
For Today
- GBP: Opening a touch higher and running around the 1.3690 level before dipping through to the 1.3680 area to fill the gap on the charts, the move through into the Tokyo session saw the market rising towards the 1.3700 level into the Tokyo fix before dipping back and again testing the 1.3680 area, the market eventually pushed through to the 1.3705 area before ranging through to the grey hours around the 1.3700 levels. Downside congestion around the 1.3660-40 area with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.3600 level and weak stops likely on a dip through opening to a deeper move, Topside offers through light through to the 1.3800 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area before opening up to light offers and weak stops through the 1.3900 level and then stronger congestion.
- JPY: A steady rise from the opening around the 108.75 areas and after a steady range pushing through steadily into the Tokyo session testing the 108.90 area pausing then running through to attempt to challenge the 109.00 level holding below through several hours before heading into the grey hours around the 108.90 level. Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: A slow rise through the session pushing slowly from the 0.7580 area testing into the Tokyo session above the 0.7600 area only to pause before running to the 0.7615 area before drifting through to the grey hours holding the 76 cents level, Light topside offers through to the 0.7700 area with weak stops on a move above the 0.7720 area Then stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Ranging quietly through to late morning in Tokyo around the 1.1815 opening area only to dip on a light attempt at the 1.1800 area, before moving off the low and testing through the 1.1825 area before drifting lightly through to the grey hours, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1940-60 area with stronger offers then increasing through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops through the level and stronger offers into the 1.2050 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1800 area with weak stops through the 1.1780 level before stronger bids appear through the 1.1750 level and increasing on a test into the 1.1720 level.
Overnight News
GBP:
BoE’s Haldane: Rip roaring recovery possible if UK savings spent – BBG
GBP/EUR:
PM Johnson warns pharma companies may cease EU investments if vaccine export ban goes ahead – Independent
Arbitrary blockades are not sensible wans PM – Independent
USD:
Evans looking for jobless rate of around 4.5% by year end – BBG
AUD/EUR:
EU saps Australian hopes for vaccine imports – AFR
KRW:
- Korea fired unidentified projectile into east sea – Yonhap
CNY:
PBoC’s RRR discount review may come as early as today – BBG
CNY/AUD:
China calls for western sanctions on Australia over human rights – AFR
Today’s Data
0700 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate A | C -11.9 | P -12.9
0830 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision A | P -0.75%
0830 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
0900 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
0930 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
0930 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
0930 CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
0930 EUR German BuBa Pres. Weidmann Speaks
0930 EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
1230 USD GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 4.1% | P 33.4%
1230 USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q4) A | C 2.0% | P 3.7%
1230 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 730k | P 770k
1410 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
1430 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1600 USD TOMC Bostic Speaks
2300 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
2330 JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (MAR) A | C -0.2% | P -0.3%
2330 JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy MoM (MAR) A | P 0.1%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Dropping from the opening highs and slipping from above the 1.3750 level to move into the Tokyo session pushing to the 1.3725 level and basing through the session holding above the area, the move through midsession saw the market slipping through the 1.3700 area to hold through into the grey hours, the move into the London session saw the market testing the lows of the day just below the 1.3680 area with a few weak stops before slowly climbing through the early morning pushing back above the 1.3730 area and ranging around the 1.3715 area through into the NYK session again trying the 1.3730 area level before drifting from the London close to tall back to the 1.3680 area.
- JPY: Slow opening around the 108.60 area before dipping on the move into the Tokyo session and bouncing off the 108.50 area to test to the 108.65 area before dropping back again this time through to the 108.45 area and then ranging through into the grey hours holding around the 108.50 area, a steady rise from the opening in London saw the market pushing through the 108.70 area and ranging around the level through into the NYK session with a quick rise through to the 108.90 level with a peak around the 108.95 area holding briefly before dipping back to the 108.70 areas for the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7630 area the market held through into the Tokyo session unable to break beyond the 0.7635 level and drifting off to the 76 cents level, the market drifted a little through into the grey hours holding the 0.7585 area before returning to the 0.7630 area for the move through into the NYK session again struggling above the 0.7630 level and moving into the London close, slowly drifting through to the close testing to the lows around the 0.7580 area.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the most part with the market moving lower quietly through the day, opening around the 1.1850 area highs and dipping through to the 1.1830 area before holding quietly through the Tokyo session around the 1.1840 level before moving into the grey hours dipping through to the 1.1810 area before recovering and continuing through the London session ranging a little wider around the 1.1820 area through to the end of London before drifting a little to base along the 1.1810 area for the close.
Premiership Results
NZD Trade Balance YoY (FEB) A 2,360m | P 2,750m | R 2,730m
NZD Trade Balance MoM (FEB) A 181m | P -626m | R -647m
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
GBP CPI MoM (FEB) A 0.1% | C 0.5% | P -0.2%
GBP CPI YoY (FEB) A 0.4% | C 0.8% | P 0.7%
GBP PPI Input MoM (FEB) (P) A 0.6% | C 0.7% | P 0.7% | R 1.0%
EUR German Services PMI (MAR) (P) A 50.8 | C 46.2 | P 45.7
EUR German Manufacturing PMI (MAR) (P) A 66.6 | C 60.8 | P 60.7
EUR Manufacturing PMI (MAR) (P) A 62.4 | C 57.7 | P 57.9
EUR Markit Composite PMI (MAR) (P) A 52.5 | C 49.1 | P 48.8
EUR Services PMI (MAR) (P) A 48.8 | C 46.0 | P 45.7
GBP Composite PMI (MAR) (P) A 56.6 | P 49.5
GBP Manufacturing PMI (MAR) (P) A 57.9 | C 54.9 | P 55.1
GBP Services PMI (MAR) (P) A 56.8 | P 49.5
USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (FEB) A -0.9% | C 0.6% | P 1.3% | R 1.6%
USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (FEB) A -1.1% | C 0.8% | P 3.4% | R 3.5%
USD Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 59.0 | C 59.3 | P 58.6
USD Markit Composite PMI (MAR) A 59.1 | P 59.5
USD Services PMI (MAR) A 60.0 | C 60.0 | P 59.8
USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 1.912m | C -0.272m | P 2.396m
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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