Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.191 | EURUSD 1.17643 | AUDUSD 0.75793 | NZDUSD 0.69538 | USDCAD 1.2614 | USDCHF 0.9402 | GBPUSD 1.3734 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17840 | 1.17641
USDJPY 109.314 | 109.120
GBPUSD 1.37659 | 1.37312
USDCHF 0.94020 | 0.93902
AUDUSD 0.76184 | 0.75782
NZDUSD 0.69790 | 0.69504
USDCAD 1.26105 | 1.25840
EURCHF 1.10746 | 1.10601
EURGBP 0.85707 | 0.8558
EURJPY 128.785 | 128.402
For Today
- GBP: Rising from the 1.3730 level through into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.3760 area for the Fix and then after a small dip pushing through to the 1.3765 area for the high of the session before holding around the 1.3760 to the grey hours, Downside congestion around the 1.3660-40 area with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.3600 level and weak stops likely on a dip through opening to a deeper move, Topside offers through light through to the 1.3800 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area before opening up to light offers and weak stops through the 1.3900 level and then stronger congestion.
- JPY: A slow rise from the 109.15 area to test into the Tokyo session pressing to the lows and then moving through to the 109.30 area for the Fix before ranging slowly between the 109.20-30 level for the move to the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: A slow steady rise from the opening 0.7580 area pushing through the 76 cent level to push to the 0.7620 area for the move into the grey hours, Light topside offers through to the 0.7700 area with weak stops on a move above the 0.7720 area Then stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: As with most of the market a settling of USD allowing the other side to rise slowly, Euro being no different opened on its lows and push from the 1.1765 area to test above the 1.1780 area for the Fix and then slowly drift to the 1.1775 area for the grey hours in quiet trading. Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1740-50 area and then increasing on a dip through the 1.1720-1.1680 level with congestion through to the 1.1600 areas.
Overnight News
EUR:
EU reveals huge vaccine exports amid struggle to speed up shots – BBG
Von Der Leyen: We’re at the start of third wave of pandemic – BBG
Von Der Leyen: EU on track to meet vaccination targets – BBG
Von Der Leyen: Astra must supply shots to EU before exporting to ? – BBG
Merkel: Euro’s role isn’t stronger, need capital markets union – BBG
Merkel: EU has own interest on China, not identical with US – BBG
Merkel: Export controls more likely if vaccine supply not met – BBG
Merkel: Cites legal reservations on travel restrictions – BBG
Merkel: Euro’s role has declined, need capital markets union – BBG
Merkel: EU leaders discussed Euro’s international role – BBG
Merkel: EU agrees to keep up contacts with Turkey at all levels – BBG
Merkel: Vaccine makers must honour commitments to EU – BBG
Merkel Speaking to reporters after EU summit – BBG
Merkel: EU to avoid harming global vaccine supply chain – BBG
SAR:
Saudi petroleum distribution station attacked in Jazana – BBG
GBP/EUR:
Halix facility cleared to deliver vaccines to UK but has not yet been inspected by EU – fiercepharma
USD/CNY:
Biden says US wants competition, not confrontation with China – DJ
CNY/GBP:
China slaps retaliatory sanctions on UK over Xinjiang claims – BBG
Today’s Data
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (MAR) A -0.1% | C -0.2% | P -0.3%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy MoM (MAR) A 0.2% | P 0.1%
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A | C -1.5% | P -3.8%
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | C 1.9% | -8.8%
0700 GBP Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A | C -3.5% | P -5.9%
0700 GBP Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | C 2.1% | P -8.2%
0700 EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 0.4% | P 16.4%
0900 EUR German Business Expectations (MAR) A | C 95.0 | P 94.2
0900 EUR German Current Assessment (MAR) A | C 91.3 | P 90.6
0900 EUR German IfO Business Climate Index (MAR) A | C 93.2 | P 92.4
1000 EUR EU Leaders summit
1000 EUR Euro Summit
1200 GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
1210 EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
1230 USD Goods Trade Balance (FEB) A | P -84.58b
1230 USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (FEB) A | P -0.1%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (FEB) A | C 0.1% | P 0.3%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (FEB) A | C 1.5% | P 1.5%
1330 USD PCE Price Index YoY (FEB) A | P 1.5%
1330 USD PCE Price Index MoM (FEB) A | P 0.3%
1330 USD Personal Spending MoM (FEB) A | C -0.7% | P 2.4%
1400 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (MAR) (P) A | P 77.5
1400 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MAR) (P) A | C 83.6 | P 83
1645 GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig count A | P 411
Tentative USD Federal Budget Balance A | P -311.0b
Tentative USD US Federal Budget A | P -430.0b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.3690 area trading in a tight range through into the Tokyo session pushing steadily towards the 1.3700 before drifting back to the 1.3680 area, a quick move off the lows saw the market through the 1.3700 level but unable to move through the 1.3710 area and holding through to the grey hours around the 1.3700 area before drifting through to the 1.3670 area, a couple of quick moves through the morning in London as the rhetoric from the EU retreated and the news wires reported even Junker giving Van Der Leyen a rebuke and the market touching the 1.3730 area before drifting a little the move into the NYK session pushing through steadily to the 1.3740 area for the highs of the day before drifting a little for the close.
- JPY: Rising from the opening a little to push into the 108.75 area from just above the 108.70 level to move into the Tokyo session testing though to the 108.90 level and after a brief pause attempting to break the 109.00 level through into the London opening before the level was breached and tested through to the 109.16 level and a range around the 109.10 level through to the NYK session and a slow rise in a tight range to touch the 109.24 level before holding quietly to the close around the 109.15 area again.
- AUD: As with USDJPY a quiet session over all with the market initially rising through to the 76 cents level dipping back before making a stronger effort through to the 0.7618 Tokyo high, the market then drifted through into the London opening testing the 0.7585 opening levels ranging through to deep into the NYK session unable to break either side before dipping through to make the lows around the 0.7565 area before returning to the opening levels.
- EUR: A quiet run through the Asian session with the market opening just above the 1.1810 level and dipping through to the 1.1805 area before slowly rising through the Tokyo session pushing through to just below the 1.1830 level only to head into the grey hours drifting with the market dipping through to the London opening testing the 1.1800 area before ranging through to the NYK session, a break through of the 1.1800 level struggled and bounced a little before running again through to the London close testing the 1.1760 area and clearing some weak stops having cleared the bids and ranging then to the close around the 1.1770 area.
Premiership Results
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate A -6.2 | C -11.9 | P -12.9 | R -12.7
CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision A -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
CAD BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
EUR German BuBa Pres. Weidmann Speaks
EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
USD GDP QoQ (Q4) A 4.3% | C 4.1% | P 33.4%
USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q4) A 1.9% | C 2.0% | P 3.7%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 684k | C 730k | P 770k | R 781k
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD TOMC Bostic Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.