Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.688 | EURUSD 1.17584 | AUDUSD 0.7609 | NZDUSD 0.70259 | USDCAD 1.2576 | USDCHF 0.94199 | GBPUSD 1.38284 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.17713 | 1.17506

USDJPY                110.751 | 110.525

GBPUSD              1.38414 | 1.38126

USDCHF              0.94343 | 0.94221

AUDUSD              0.76237 | 0.76022

NZDUSD              0.70366 | 0.70184

USDCAD              1.25871 | 1.2564

EURCHF               1.10930 | 1.1084

EURGBP              0.85120 | 0.85018

EURJPY                130.247 | 130.098

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening unchanged and dipping to test lightly through the 1.3820 level before slowly rising through the Tokyo session to push above the 1.3840 area, the range set the market slipped back to the opening level for the move into the grey hour before London opening, Topside offers congested around the level and increasing through to the 1.3900 area, some weak stops likely to be absorbed by congestion that is likely to continue through to the 1.4000 area before stops increase. Downside bids light through the 1.3800 level and then light bids through to the 1.3700 area where bids are likely to increase through to the 1.3650 area before weak stops appear.
  • JPY: A quiet move through into the Tokyo session holding around the 110.85 area opening and after a light push through to the 110.75 area for the move through the Fix before dropping off to range around the 110.55-60 level to the grey hours, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light back through the 110 level and likely to continue to 109.80 with weak stops likely through the level and weak through to the 109.00 area.
  • AUD: A slow quiet rise through the Tokyo session to push from the 76 cents level through to push lightly to the 0.7625 before drifting through to the grey hours holding just below the 0.7620 areas, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
  • EUR: Opening unchanged and slowly rising through to the 1.1770 area for the high and holding through to late in the session for the dip into the grey hour unchanged. Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680  area with weak stops on a move through  and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility.

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

Biden Infrastructure plan draws attacks from left and right – DJ

Job Growth in US topped 900k in March as hiring broadened – BBG

US daily vaccinations near 4m mark – AFR

CNY:

China asked Banks to rein in credit on bubble fears – FT

AUD:

Our vaccine rollout is a disaster – here’s how to fix it – SYH

JPY:

Bets against the Yen grow to biggest in almost two years – BBG

 

 

Today’s Data

Holiday GBP        Easter Monday

Holiday EUR       Germany, Spain Easter Monday

Holiday CHF        Easter Monday

Holiday AUD       Easter Monday

Holiday CNY       Public Holiday

Holiday NZD       Easter Monday

JPY         Services PMI A 48.3 | P 46.3

1445      USD       Markit Composite PMI (MAR) A | P 59.1

1445      USD       Services PMI (MAR) A | C 60.0 | P 60.0

1500      USD       Factory Orders MoM (FEB) A | C -0.5% | P 2.6%

1500      USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment A | P 52.7

1500      USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 58.5 | P 55.3

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Bank holidays around the world saw a quiet range for the day, a slow rise from the 1.3830 level to test above the 1.3850 level for the move into the grey hours and then slowly drifting through into the NYK opening and NFP numbers came in much higher to cause a quick whipsaw of a move dipping to the 1.3810 level and bouncing through the 1.3840 level before settling back to rang around the 1.3830 level for the close.
  • JPY: A tight range through into the London session with the Asian session holding around the 110.60 level from the opening, the move into the Tokyo session saw the market dipping through towards the 110.50 area before moving back to top around the 110.65 area and then slipping for the run through to the grey hours testing the 110.45 area bouncing a little then running for a second run to test through into the 110.35 area for the low of the day in early London morning, the move into the NYK session saw the market rallying through to the high of the day testing the 110.75 area before holding quietly through to the close.
  • AUD: Quiet through into the Tokyo session before rising through to the 0.7635 area from the opening 0.7615 level, a quiet range around the 0.7630 level before sliding through into the London session holding briefly at the opening level before drifting through to the 0.7600 area, with a minor movement around the NFP.
  • EUR: Quiet through into the London session with the market lifting above the 1.1780 level before dipping in early Tokyo to hold the 1.1770 area into London session with a slight rise to the highs above the 1.1785 area and a slow drift through to the 1.1750 into the London session with NFP seeing a quick push to the 1.1785 area and a drop to the low before rising slowly to the 1.1760 area for the close.

 

Premier League Results

USD       Average Hourly Earnings MoM (MAR) A -0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.2% | R 0.3%

USD       Average Hourly Earnings YoY (MAR) A 4.2% | C 4.5% | P 5.3% | R 5.2%

USD       NonFarm Payrolls (MAR) A 916k | C 647k | P 379k | R 468k

USD       Participation Rate (MAR) A 61.5% | P 61.4%

USD       Private Nonfarm Payrolls A 780k | C 575k | P 468k | R 558k

USD       Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.2%

USD       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.