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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today

• GBP: Opening around the 1.3825 area the market moved through into the Tokyo session holding the level and then steadily made its way through to the 1.3840 highs before dipping back to the opening level and trading in a tight range just above the base 1.3820 level into the grey hours, Topside offers congested around the level and increasing through to the 1.3900 area, some weak stops likely to be absorbed by congestion that is likely to continue through to the 1.4000 area before stops increase. Downside bids light through the 1.3800 level and then light bids through to the 1.3700 area where bids are likely to increase through to the 1.3650 area before weak stops appear.
• JPY: Quiet range through into the Tokyo session holding a 109.75-85 area for the most part before moving into the Tokyo session and pushing quickly through to make the high just short of the 109.90 level and then after a short pause dropping back quickly to make the low just through the 109.60 level before returning to the opening level to range to the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area, with weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
• AUD: A quiet rise from the 0.7660 level through into the Tokyo session to test just above the 0.7676 area before dropping off through the balance of the session to test back to and base along the 0.7650 area to the grey hour, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
• EUR: A quiet range with a steady drift through the later part of the session, opening around the 1.1875 level the market drifted into the Tokyo midsession before rising to the 1.1878 area and then drifting again to push through to the 1.1865 area and basing to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680 area with weak stops on a move through and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility. Topside offers into the 1.1880 level and then stronger offers likely through into the 1.1900 area with short term sellers likely to fade the move with weak stops likely to have stepped a little away from the usual 1.1920 area and then stronger offers again appearing on any push at the 1.1940-60 area and the congestion then increasing on any move through to the 1.2000 area.

Overnight News

INR:
India struggles to track virus mutations amid record infections – BBG
CNY:
IMF urges China to reduce corporate debt risk made worse by heavy pandemic lending – SMP
CNY/USD:
China turns to US coal to fill void created by Australia import ban, offers trade deal boost – SMP
GBP:
UK to begin Moderna Covid vaccine rollout – BBG
USD:
Biden says all adults will be eligible for vaccine by April 19 – NYT
CAD:
Ontario to implement new restrictions as variant cases rise – BBG

Today’s Data
0815 EUR Spanish Services PMI (MAR) A | C 46.0 | P 43.1
0855 EUR German Services PMI (MAR) A | C 50.8 | P 45.7
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (MAR) A | C 52.5 | P 48.8
0900 EUR Services PMI (MAR) A | C 48.8 | P 45.7
0930 GBP Composite PMI (MAR) A | C 56.6 | P 56.6
0930 GBP Services PMI (MAR) A | C 56.8 | P 56.8
1330 USD Exports A | P 191.90b
1330 USD Imports A | P 260.20b
1330 USD Trade Balance (FEB) A | C -70.50b | P 68.20b
1330 CAD Trade Balance (FEB) A | C 1.00b | P 1.41b
1500 CAD Ivey PMI (MAR) A | C 60.5 | P 60.0
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | P 0.782m
1900 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Opening around the 1.3900 level and then rising a little to test the 1.3915 area holding through into the Tokyo session and then slipping through the 1.3900 level to test the 1.3890, the run to the grey hour saw the market testing the highs of the day pushing through to just above the early highs before dropping back through to the 1.3870 in the grey hour and then following through on the opening in London testing to the 1.3850 holding briefly before testing through to the 1.3820 level and a quiet range through into the NYK session, a steady rise through to the 1.3865 area saw the market again moving through to make the low of the session on the move through the London close pushing to just above the 1.3800 level before running a little higher for the move into the close.
• JPY: Quiet trading through into the Tokyo session basing along the 110.15 area before starting a steady rise through Tokyo push to the 110.40 area before dipping back for the grey hour, buying appeared for the move into the London session testing through to the 110.50 level before running out of steam and some strong GBPJPY selling moved through the session and a deep dip through into the NYK session testing the 109.70 level before ranging around the 109.75 area to the close.
• AUD: A slow rise through to the 0.7660 level the market slipped from midsession onwards to dip through to the 0.7630 level recovering a little into the Grey hour before returning to the sell side and tipping through into the London opening extending the lows and moving to a low in late morning to push lightly through the 0.7610 area, JPY buying saw the AUD rising through the NYK session pushing slowly through to the London close testing through the 0.7660 area again and this time steadily ranging then basing along the highs having fallen slightly short of the 0.7670 levels.
• EUR: A slow rise to push a little above the 1.1820 area before slipping through to test the 1.1800 level into midsession and not particularly deviating to the general movements in the Asian market, the move into the London session saw a little wider range but generally holding around the 1.1810 area before running into the NYK session and the Euro rising steadily through to the highs of the day above the 1.1875 area for the close.

Premier League Results
JPY Household Spending YoY (FEB) A -6.6% | C -5.3% | P -6.1%
JPY Household Spending MoM (FEB) A 2.4% | C 2.8% | P -7.3%
CNY Caixin Services PMI (MAR) A 54.3 | P 51.5
CNY Composite PMI (MAR) A 53.1 | P 51.7
AUD RBA Interest rate decision A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A -59.1k | P 44.4k
EUR Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 8.3% | C 8.1% | P 8.1% | R 8.3%
USD EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
USD JOLTs Job Openings (FEB) A 7.367m | C 6.995m | P 6.917m | R 7.099m
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -2.618m | P 3.910m

Best Regards
Andy

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