Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.382 | EURUSD 1.19118 | AUDUSD 0.76246 | NZDUSD 0.70258 | USDCAD 1.25622 | USDCHF 0.92215 | GBPUSD 1.37434 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19166 | 1.18883
USDJPY 109.755 | 109.358
GBPUSD 1.37563 | 1.37299
USDCHF 0.92409 | 0.92176
AUDUSD 0.76305 | 0.75987
NZDUSD 0.70346 | 0.70071
USDCAD 1.25810 | 1.25579
EURCHF 1.09951 | 1.09820
EURGBP 0.86719 | 0.86568
EURJPY 130.495 | 130.270
For Today
- GBP: A slow climb through to the 1.3755 area for the Tokyo fix before slipping slowly lower to hold around the 1.3730 level through to the grey hour, topside offers light through the 1.3750 area and then increasing on a move through to the 1.3800 area, weak stops on a move through the level with increasing offers through to the 1.3850 level building towards the 1.3900 area before stronger stops on a move through, downside bids light into the 1.3650 area and then increasing on a move to the 1.3600 area with stronger stops on a dip through but again strong congestion on a move to the 1.3550 level and increasing into the 1.3500 area.
- JPY: Opening quietly around the 109.40 level and a slow steady rise through the session in a tight channelled run through to the 109.75 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area, with weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
- AUD: Ranging quietly around the opening 0.7620 area testing lightly through to the Tokyo fix pushing the 0.7630 and then slowly drifting through to the 0.7600 level for the move into the grey hour in light selling, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Rising a little from the opening to push at the 1.1915 level and tested the high again into the Tokyo session before USD buying saw the market drifting through to the 1.1890 area through into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.1920 level again and possible weak stops on a move through to the 1.1930 area and the market then likely to see increasing offers through the 1.1940-60 area and then the 1.1980-1.2000 level with strong stops likely on a move through the 1.2020-30 area. Opening only a limited move higher, downside bids light through to the 1.1820 area with weak stops on a move through to the 1.1780 level with limited bids through to the 1.1700 area and only light congestion through the 1.1750 level.
Overnight News
USD:
FED’s Bullard says 75% Vaccinations would allow for taper debate – BBG
Biden team pounds congress to sell $2t infrastructure bill – AXS
CDC director says Michigan needs to shut down, not get extra vaccine, to slow its virus outbreak – NYT
AUD:
Why bankers know the RBA will keep rates low – AFR
TWD/CNY:
Taiwan says PLA flies 25 2warplanes into its airspace the largest incursion yet – SMP
NZD:
NZ firms slightly less pessimistic about economy, NZIER – BBG
CNY:
Big Tech’s new rules (China) – CNBC
China Huarong’s deepening bond rout pushes yield to record 23%, stokes market contagion – BBG
PBoC to ensure ample liquidity – NS6
EUR:
EU says it won’t pay off Montenegro’s billion-dollar highway debt to China – SMP
Today’s Data
NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) A -13% | P -6%
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MAR) A 20.3% | P 9.5%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR) A 15 | P 16 | R 18
CNY Exports YoY (MAR) A 30.6% | C 35.5% | P 60.6%
CNY Trade Balance USD (MAR) A 13.80b | C 52.05b | P 103.25b
0700 GBP GDP MoM A | P -2.9%
0700 GBP GDP YoY A | P -7.3%
0700 GBP Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P -1.5%
0700 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P -2.3%
0700 GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A | P -1.7%
0700 GBP Trade Balance (FEB) A | C -10.40b | P -9.83b
0700 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (FEB) A | C -4.05b | P -1.76b
1000 EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (APR) A | C -53.0 | P -61.0
1000 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (APR) A | C 79.0 | P 76.6
1000 EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (APR) A | P 74.0
1200 USD OPEC Monthly Report
1330 USD Core CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 1.5% | P 1.3%
1330 USD Core CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
1330 USD CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.5% | P 0.4%
1400 USD NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A | P -2.0%
1500 EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
1603 CNY Imports YoY (MAR) A | C 23.3% | P 22.2%
1700 USD FOMC Member Daily Speaks
1700 USD FOMC Member George Speaks
1700 USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
2015 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -2.618m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow move through into the Tokyo session pushing lightly through to the 1.3715 level before dipping once the Tokyo fix was over on a steady drift through to the 1.3670 area for the move into the grey hour and the start of a steady recovery pushing through into the London session lightly pushing the 1.3750 level, a short period of limited movement before again pushing through to the NYK session testing above the 1.3775 level before drifting back to the 1.3740 and holding quietly in a long run to the close.
- JPY: Weak rally to the 109.77 area saw the market holding through into early NYK before dropping back through to hold around the 109.50 area through into the grey hour, light selling for the run into early morning London and a steady testing to the 109.25 level holding through into the NYK session in quiet trading rising through to the 109.40 and ranging around the level to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7620 area and ranging around the level through into the Tokyo session to dip away through to midsession testing around the 0.7595 level before ranging through to the grey hours just above the figure level, London were slow buyers and although they kept the pressure up were unable to get beyond the 0.7635 area for the move to the NYK session, a drift back through the 0.7620 level and range through to the close.
- EUR: Opening a little lower and then ranging around the 1.1900 level into the Tokyo session before dipping through to the 1.1890 area and holding through into the grey hour before dropping steadily into the London opening testing towards the 1.1870 area, steady recovery through to the 1.1905 area and then ranging in something just beyond a 10 pip range around the 1.1910 level and unable to break the 1.1920 area.
Premier Results
EUR Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 3.0% | C 1.5% | P -5.9% | R -5.2%
CNY New Loans A 2,730.0b | P 1,360.0b
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
USD Federal Budget Balance (MAR) A -660.0b | C -265.0b | P -311.0b
Best Regards
Andy
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