Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.062 | EURUSD 1.1949 | AUDUSD 0.7644 | NZDUSD 0.70526 | USDCAD 1.25342 | USDCHF 0.92062 | GBPUSD 1.37501 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19639 | 1.19459
USDJPY 109.077 | 108.752
GBPUSD 1.37735 | 1.37434
USDCHF 0.92072 | 0.91974
AUDUSD 0.76639 | 0.76349
NZDUSD 0.70909 | 0.70468
USDCAD 1.25471 | 1.25296
EURCHF 1.10036 | 1.1001
EURGBP 0.86932 | 0.86829
EURJPY 130.345 | 130.037
For Today
- GBP: Rising from the early lows pushing off the 1.3750 area to test above the 1.3770 level falling just short of the 1.3775 area before ranging around the 70 area through into the grey hour, topside offers into the 1.3800 level with weak stops on the move through likely to see some small gains through to the 1.3850 area before finding increasing offers through to the 1.3900 levels. downside bids light into the 1.3650 area and then increasing on a move to the 1.3600 area with stronger stops on a dip through but again strong congestion on a move to the 1.3550 level and increasing into the 1.3500 area.
- JPY: Dipping on the move through into the Tokyo session from the opening levels around the 109.05 area dipping through to the 108.80 level making the low shortly after and a slow rise to the 108.90 area for the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area, with weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
- AUD: Opening just above the 0.7640 level and then ranging in the 0.7640-50 area with a minor dip to the 0.7635 level before rising through midsession testing the 0.7665 area and a range through to the grey hour holding the 0.7660 area. light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Quiet opening holding around the 1.1950 level and a slow rise through the 1.1960 level and a tight range around that level through into the grey hour with limited test to the 1.1965 area, Topside offers increasing on any move through to the 1.1980 area with weak stops through the 1.2020 level and weak congestion around the 1.2050 level and stronger offers beyond. downside bids light through to the 1.1820 area with weak stops on a move through to the 1.1780 level with limited bids through to the 1.1700 area and only light congestion through the 1.1750 level.
Overnight News
USD:
Johnson and Johnson pause risks hesitancy even as US sees ample shots – BBG
USD/CNY:
US intelligence assessment moves China to the top of the threat list – SMP
CNY/USD:
China opposed to any official US-Taiwan Exchanges – BBG
US is sending the wrong signals to Taiwan, Ma says
SGD:
Singapore’s MAS keeps zero currency appreciation as expected and accommodative policy remains appropriate – BBG
CNY:
China Huarong’s plunging bonds point to major market shift – BBG
TWD:
Taiwan says unofficial US delegation to arrive on Wednesday – BBG
NZD:
RBNZ maintains benchmark interest rate
RBNZ Prepared to lower OCR if required
RBNZ: Monetary stimulus continued
Today’s Data
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (APR) A 6.2% | P 2.6%
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
0715 JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 1.3% | P 0.0%
0800 EUR Spanish HICP YoY (MAR) A | C 1.2% | P -0.1%
0800 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
0930 GBP Labour Productivity (Q4) A | P 4.0%
1000 EUR Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A | C -1.1% | P 0.8%
1245 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
1330 USD Export Price Index MoM (MAR) A | C 1.0% | P 1.6%
1330 USD Import Price Index MoM (MAR) A | C 1.0% | P 1.3%
1500 EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
1530 GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.889m | P -3.522m
1700 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
1800 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
1900 USD Beige Book
1930 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
2045 USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
2100 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2305 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.3740 area pushing steadily through into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.3755 before dipping back through to the opening and a slow drift to the 1.3730 area the market ranges through into the grey hour holding around the 1.3730-40 level before pushing through into the early morning testing towards the 1.3770 level before dropping back to test into the NYK opening around the 1.3715 area before bouncing on the opening then dropping from the 1.3750 level through to the 1.3695 area and then back through the 1.3750 area again, the close of the London session saw the market running through the 1.3750 area for a limited run to the close.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.40 level and a slow steady rise through the 109.70 area peaking around the 109.75 level before drifting a little for the move into the grey hour, London opening saw the USDJPY drop quickly through from the 109.70 level to test the 109.30 area and range around the area for the move into the NYK session with a limited run to the 109.60 level before dipping again to range around the 109.20 with the further into the NYK session we moved the further drift we had to close just above the 109.00 level.
- AUD: Quiet move through into the Tokyo session rising from the opening 0.7625 through to the 0.7630 area before dipping from the high through to the 0.7605 area a pause around the 0.7610 level and then a drift through into the grey hour testing through the 0.7600 area, light buying through the grey hour pushing the 0.7620 level before dipping back for the NYK opening, a little quick dip through the 0.7590 level and a bounce and steady rise through to the close just short of the 0.7650 level.
- EUR: US numbers dominated the day for the Euro, opening around the 1.1910 level and a steady drift from the opening in Tokyo testing through to the 1.1890 level ranging around the level into London where the market pushed off the low testing the 1.1910 area before drifting again, the opening in NYK and the US numbers saw the USD initially strengthen and then quickly bounce to the 1.1940 area and a gradual rise through to the high of the day around the 1.1955 level.
Premier Results
NZD NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) A -13% | P -6%
GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (MAR) A 20.3% | P 9.5%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR) A 15 | P 16 | R 18
CNY Exports YoY (MAR) A 30.6% | C 35.5% | P 60.6%
CNY Trade Balance USD (MAR) A 13.80b | C 52.05b | P 103.25b
CNY Imports YoY (MAR) A 38.1% | C 21.6% | P 22.2%
GBP GDP MoM A 0.4% | P -2.9% | R -2.2%
GBP GDP YoY A -7.8% | P -7.3% | R -8.5%
GBP Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A 1.0% | C 0.5% | P -1.5% | R -1.8%
GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (FEB) A 1.3% | C 0.5% | P -2.3%
GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A -1.6% | P -1.7%
GBP Trade Balance (FEB) A -16.44b | C -10.40b | P -9.83b | R -12.59b
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (FEB) A -10.73b | C -4.05b | P -1.76b | R -4.46b
EUR German ZEW Current Conditions (APR) A -48.8 | C -53.0 | P -61.0
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (APR) A 70.7 | C 79.0 | P 76.6
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (APR) A 66.3 | P 74.0
USD OPEC Monthly Report
USD Core CPI YoY (MAR) A 1.6% | C 1.5% | P 1.3%
USD Core CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.3% | C 0.2% | P 0.1%
USD CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.6% | C 0.5% | P 0.4%
USD NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A -1.5% | P -2.0%
EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
USD FOMC Member Daily Speaks
USD FOMC Member George Speaks
USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -2.618m
Best Regards
Andy
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