Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.937 | EURUSD 1.19796 | AUDUSD 0.77244 | NZDUSD 0.71377 | USDCAD 1.25196 | USDCHF 0.9229 | GBPUSD 1.37774 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19900 | 1.19723
USDJPY 109.013 | 108.809
GBPUSD 1.37941 | 1.37682
USDCHF 0.92385 | 0.92253
AUDUSD 0.77452 | 0.77086
NZDUSD 0.71584 | 0.71349
USDCAD 1.25260 | 1.25047
EURCHF 1.10636 | 1.10527
EURGBP 0.86999 | 0.86872
EURJPY 130.600 | 130.344
For Today
- GBP: A quick push off the opening level and into the Tokyo session to test the 1.3795 level before dropping back just as quickly to hold around the 1.3770 level through to the grey hours, , topside offers into the 1.3800 level with weak stops on the move through likely to see some small gains through to the 1.3850 area before finding increasing offers through to the 1.3900 levels. downside bids light into the 1.3650 area and then increasing on a move to the 1.3600 area with stronger stops on a dip through but again strong congestion on a move to the 1.3550 level and increasing into the 1.3500 area.
- JPY: A very quiet run through the Tokyo session dipping from the opening highs just short of the 109.00 level trading into the Tokyo session holding the 108.95 area and then dipping through to the lows just above the 108.80 area to range through to the grey hours ranging around the 108.90 again, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
- AUD: A slow move from the opening around the 0.7725 area saw a slow rise through to the 0.7745 for the release of the employment numbers and the market dipping through the opening level and after a brief pause pushing again through the 0.7720 area to test to the 0.7710 level into the grey hours, Offers through the 0.7740-60 level and increasing on any breach above the level and into the 0.7780-0.7800 area, weak stops likely on a break of the 0.7820-30 area is likely to quickly run into further congestion on any move towards the 0.7850-0.7900 area. Downside bids light through the 0.7700 area and weak stops likely on any dip through the 0.7680 area to test quickly to the lower end of the congestion through 0.7650 with increasing bids into the 76 cents level and through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: A light rise from the 1.1980 level with congestion through into the 1.2000 level and stronger offers through the level, a push above the 1.2030 area could see weak stops however, any stops are likely to see congestive offers continuing with the market according to several banks willing to fade any rise however, saying that a move through the 1.2050 area could see a short squeeze appearing and opening a limited move to the next level around 1.2100, downside bids light through to the 1.1820 area with weak stops on a move through to the 1.1780 level with limited bids through to the 1.1700 area and only light congestion through the 1.1750 level.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ March home sales rise 31.2% YoY – BBG
USD/EUR:
Johnson and Johnson throw doubt on 60m doses being delivered to the EU for there rollout
USD:
J and J and AstraZeneca clot issues are not unexpected 6 of 6.8 relates to 30 of 30m+
Michigan’s Governor again resists imposing new restrictions, as cases keep surging – NYT
USD/RUB:
US poised to impose Russian sanctions for elections, solarwinds – BBG
US Measures to hit roughly a dozen individuals, 20 entities – BBG
US blames Russia for solarwinds hack, election interference – BBG
Moves coming as soon as Thursday, days after Biden – Putin call
Intelligence Chiefs warn of Russian troops near Ukraine and other threats – NYT
EUR:
ECB’s Lagarde says Eurozone economy still on crutches – RTRs
CNY:
China drains medium term liquidity from banking system – RTRs
Today’s Data
JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
AUD Employment Change (MAR) A 70.7k | C 35.0k | P 88.7k
AUD Full Employment Change (MAR) A -20.8k | P 89.1k
AUD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 5.6% | C 5.7% | P 5.8%
0700 EUR German CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
0930 GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
1330 USD Core Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 5.0% | P -2.7%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 700k | P 744k
1330 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (APR) A | C 19.50 | P 17.40
1330 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (APR) A | C 42.0 | P 51.8
1330 USD Philly Fed Employment (APR) A | P 30.1
1330 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (FEB) A | C -1.0% | P 3.1%
1415 USD Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A | C 2.8% | P -2.2%
1415 USD Industrial Production YoY (MAR) A | P -4.25%
1500 USD Business Inventories MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P 0.3%
1500 USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (FEB) A | P 1.2%
1500 CHF SNB Gov. Board Member Maechler Speaks
1530 EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
1630 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
2100 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (FEB) A | P 90.8b
2330 NZD Business NZ PMI (MAR) A | P 53.4
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening towards the lows testing lightly through the 1.3750 area before slowly ranging from the low opening through to the 1.3765 area for a few hours before slowly pushing into the grey hour testing the 1.3780 level and then pushing quickly to the 1.3800 level, London opening saw the market dip to the 1.3780 level before running higher to make the high of the day just short of the 1.3810 level and some weak stops cleared before coming off through to the 1.3750 area and ranging through into the NYK session, NYK were quick buyers from the opening and the market again headed to the 1.3800 level however, this time short term sellers were strong enough to hold below the level and the market after a few hours drifted to the close around the 1.3780 level.
- JPY: A very quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening towards the highs, just short of the 109.10 level and then moving into the Tokyo session dipping through to the 108.90 level and after a brief struggle to push lightly through the 108.80 area to test to the 108.75 level before slowly rallying through to the grey hour pushing towards 109.00, 109.00 remained the centre of attraction with the market ranging around the level unable to push beyond the early lows and highs and for the most part holding the 108.90 level through to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7645 level and ranging around the level deep into the Tokyo session before rising just below the 0.7665 area and holding for a short period before running slowly through into the grey hour testing the 0.7685 level, London saw very little movement ranging around the 0.7680 area through to NYK before the AUD pushed through to the high of the day testing steadily through the 0.7700 level and slowly continuing through to the end of the London session testing the 0.7735 area before ranging around the 0.7725 level for the close.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1950 area holding through into the Tokyo session with the market slowly rallying through to the grey hours pushing the 1.1975 level in very quiet trading, a dip for the London opening saw the range increase into London moving between the 1.1950-70 area until the NYK session where the market saw a slow rise through to push above the 1.1985 area before finishing the day just off the level.
Premier Results
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (APR) A 6.2% | P 2.6%
NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (MAR) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 0.0% | R 1.3%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (MAR) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P -0.1%
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
GBP Labour Productivity (Q4) A -0.7% | P 4.0%
EUR Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A -1.0% | C -1.1% | P 0.8%
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
USD Export Price Index MoM (MAR) A 2.1% | C 1.0% | P 1.6%
USD Import Price Index MoM (MAR) A 1.2% | C 1.0% | P 1.3%
EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -5.889m | C -2.889m | P -3.522m
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
USD Beige Book
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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