Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.759 | EURUSD 1.1966 | AUDUSD 0.77513 | NZDUSD 0.71743 | USDCAD 1.2546 | USDCHF 0.92233 | GBPUSD 1.37823 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19745 | 1.19505
USDJPY 108.939 | 108.611
GBPUSD 1.37907 | 1.37521
USDCHF 0.92341 | 0.92188
AUDUSD 0.77561 | 0.77245
NZDUSD 0.71787 | 0.71517
USDCAD 1.25587 | 1.25364
EURCHF 1.10420 | 1.10311
EURGBP 0.86929 | 0.86774
EURJPY 130.232 | 129.978
For Today
- GBP: A quiet opening around the 1.3785 area with a quick dip once the Tokyo fix was over to the 1.3760 area dipping into the low 1.3750’s for a quiet range through to the grey hours and unable to push off the lows, topside offers into the 1.3800 level with weak stops on the move through likely to see some small gains through to the 1.3850 area before finding increasing offers through to the 1.3900 levels. downside bids light into the 1.3650 area and then increasing on a move to the 1.3600 area with stronger stops on a dip through but again strong congestion on a move to the 1.3550 level and increasing into the 1.3500 area.
- JPY: Opening around the 108.75 level and dipping through to the 108.60 area for the Tokyo fix before rising quickly with the help of Kuroda to test the 108.95 area before ranging quietly around the 108.85 level to the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
- AUD: A quiet opening around the 0.7750 level the market slipped from above the level on a move into the Tokyo session to test lightly to the 0.7730 area with a light dip through the 0.7725 for the low and then returning to the 0.7730-35 area for a tight range to the grey hour, Offers through the 0.7740-60 level and increasing on any breach above the level and into the 0.7780-0.7800 area, weak stops likely on a break of the 0.7820-30 area is likely to quickly run into further congestion on any move towards the 0.7850-0.7900 area. Downside bids light through the 0.7700 area and weak stops likely on any dip through the 0.7680 area to test quickly to the lower end of the congestion through 0.7650 with increasing bids into the 76 cents level and through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: Rising from the 1.1970 level for the move into the Tokyo fix testing the dizzy heights of 1.1975 and then dipping through to the 1.1955 area with the banks still directing the market, a light push to the 1.1950 level saw the low of the day with a slow recovery through into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.1980 level and into the 1.2020 area with weak stops likely to be mixed with congestive sellers and offers moving through and likely to continue in varying sizes to the 1.2080 level where stronger and more determined offers are likely to appear, weak stops and the possibility of a short squeeze through the 1.2120 area but continuing offers likely, downside bids light back through the 1.1900 level with some light profit taking possible before 1.1880 stops appear and opening a limited dip through to the 1.1850 area and stronger bids.
Overnight News
USD:
Biden says he was clear with Putin he could have gone further
Biden: US isn’t looking to kick off cycle of escalation
Biden: Now is the time to deescalate
Pfizer CEO says third Covid jab may be needed, plus annual booster – SYH
CNY:
IMF’s Berger: Bit concerned about balance of China growth – BBG
Berger: Vaccination important for China return to normal capacity – BBG
China March crude steel output leaps on rosy profits – RTRs
AUD:
Australia finds Google misled customers over data collection – Regulator – RTR’s
Australia considers staggered reopening of borders – AFR
JPY:
Kuroda says no need to change BoJ’s 2% inflation target – RTRs
Today’s Data
NZD Business NZ PMI (MAR) A 63.6 | P 53.4
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (MAR) A 25.6% | C 25.0% | P 35.0%
CNY GDP QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 1.5% | P 2.6%
CNY GDP YoY (Q1) A 18.3% | C 19.0% | P 6.5%
CNY Chinese GDP YTD YoY (Q1) A 18.3% | P 2.3%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (MAR) A 14.1% | C 17.2% | P 35.1%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (MAR) A 24.5% | P 35.1%
CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate A 5.3% | P 5.5%
CNY NBS Press Conference
0730 CHF PPI MoM (MAR) A | P 0.3%
1000 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 0.9% | P 1.1%
1000 EUR CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.9% | P 0.2%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 1.3% | P 0.9%
1000 EUR Trade Balance (FEB) A | P 6.3b
Tentative EUR Eurogroup Meetings
1315 CAD Housing Starts (MAR) A | C 250.0k | P 245.9k
1330 USD Building Permits (MAR) A | C 1.750m | P 1.720m
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (MAR) A | P -8.8%
1330 USD Housing Starts MoM (MAR) A | P -10.3%
1330 USD Housing Starts (MAR) A | C 1.613m | P 1.421m
1330 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (FEB) A | P 1.27b
1330 CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (FEB) A | C -0.4% | P 4.0%
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (APR) (P) A | C 83.6 | P 79.7
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (APR) (P) A | C 89.6 | P 84.9
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 430
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Ranging around the 1.3780 throughout the day the market through into the Tokyo session saw the market moving through to the 1.3775 area before moving through to the 1.3795 area into the Tokyo session before dipping back again and then a slow drift through to the 1.3765 level for the move into the grey hour, early London saw the market pushing through to the 1.3800 level dipping after the London opening before running to the highs from the 1.3780 opening level and testing through to just short of the 1.3810 level only to dip to the low just above the 1.3760 level and returning to the highs for the NYK opening, the market slowly drifted back to the opening level to range around the level to the close.
- JPY: Choppy opening settled to range into the Tokyo session holding the 108.95 level and just below the high for the move through to the 108.80 area and a slow range around the 108.90 level through to the grey hour, London was a slow drift through to the 108.80 level then ranged through around the 108.75 area with several dips through to the 108.60 area and finishing just off those lows.
- AUD: A light rise from the opening 0.7725 area to push into the Tokyo session testing to the 0.7745 level and dipping on the employment numbers which on the face of it were ok but Full employment numbers fell so the bulk were part time status, the market dipped to the 0.7705 area before moving into the grey hour pushing from the lows testing to the 0.7750 area but barely able to push the 0.7760 area and ranging around the 0.7750 level through to the close.
- EUR: Choppy movement throughout the day rising from the opening levels around the 1.1980 area to lightly test the 1.1990 area before dropping off quickly through to the 1.1975 area with a long run to the grey hour before again running for the highs dipping from the high again for the London opening and on the third run to the 1.1995 area before then collapsing through to the 1.1965 level these types of movements continued through but never recovered the highs again with downside moves testing the 1.1955 level to find a base with choppy moves to the close,
Premier Results
JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
AUD Employment Change (MAR) A 70.7k | C 35.0k | P 88.7k
AUD Full Employment Change (MAR) A -20.8k | P 89.1k
AUD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 5.6% | C 5.7% | P 5.8%
EUR German CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
USD Core Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A 8.4% | C 5.0% | P -2.7% | R -2.1%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 576k | C 700k | P 744k | R 769k
USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (APR) A 26.30 | C 19.50 | P 17.40
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (APR) A 50.2 | C 42.0 | P 51.8
USD Philly Fed Employment (APR) A 30.8 | P 30.1
USD Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A 9.8% | C 5.9% | P -3.0% | R -2.7%
CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM (FEB) A -1.6% | C -1.0% | P 3.1%
USD Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A 1.4% | C 2.8% | P -2.2% | R -2.6%
USD Industrial Production YoY (MAR) A 1.02% | P -4.25% | R -4.77%
USD Business Inventories MoM (FEB) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.3% | R 0.4%
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (FEB) A 1.2% | P 1.2%
CHF SNB Gov. Board Member Maechler Speaks
EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (FEB) A 4.2b | P 90.8b | R 91.0b
Best Regards
Andy
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