Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.789 | EURUSD 1.19823 | AUDUSD 0.77351 | NZDUSD 0.71446 | USDCAD 1.25071 | USDCHF 0.91991 | GBPUSD 1.3843 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19784 | 1.19428
USDJPY 108.839 | 108.548
GBPUSD 1.38471 | 1.38097
USDCHF 0.92149 | 0.91927
AUDUSD 0.77369 | 0.77065
NZDUSD 0.71445 | 0.71228
USDCAD 1.25278 | 1.25070
EURCHF 1.10210 | 1.10026
EURGBP 0.86623 | 0.86358
EURJPY 130.307 | 129.707
For Today
- GBP: Opening a little lower around the 1.3840 area and slowly drifting through to the 1.3810 area into early Tokyo before steadily remaking the opening levels and ranging around the area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.3850 level with sentimental offers and congestion from early in the month in the area, steady congestion likely to the 1.3900 level before weak stops appear and congestion then soaking up those light stops on a steadily offered market through to the strong offers into 1.4000, Downside bids light through to the 1.3740 area and then increasing the deeper the market grinds through the congestion with weak stops not likely until deep into the 1.3650 areas.
- JPY: Opening quietly around the 108.80 and unchanged through to the Tokyo opening where selling appeared through to the 108.70 level and some ranging for a couple of hours before dipping again to the 108.55 area a bounce and a slow range around the 108.65 to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 108.50 area with weak stops likely on a move through the level and weak stops a possibility to drive the market through the congestive bids into the 108.20-00 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 108.80 level and increasing into the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: Weak opening and the market slowly singing from the 0.7730 area and test through to the 0.7705 area before finding sufficient buyers and testing through to push back to fill the gap from the opening and testing just above the 0.7735 area. Offers through the 0.7740-60 level and increasing on any breach above the level and into the 0.7780-0.7800 area, weak stops likely on a break of the 0.7820-30 area is likely to quickly run into further congestion on any move towards the 0.7850-0.7900 area. Downside bids light through the 0.7700 area and weak stops likely on any dip through the 0.7680 area to test quickly to the lower end of the congestion through 0.7650 with increasing bids into the 76 cents level and through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: Opening weaker and after holding a little only to move into the Tokyo session and a quick dip through to the 1.1945 area before finding some light buying to recover into the grey hour holding around the 1.1955 level. Topside offers through the 1.1980 level and into the 1.2020 area with weak stops likely to be mixed with congestive sellers and offers moving through and likely to continue in varying sizes to the 1.2080 level where stronger and more determined offers are likely to appear, weak stops and the possibility of a short squeeze through the 1.2120 area but continuing offers likely, downside bids light back through the 1.1900 level with some light profit taking possible before 1.1880 stops appear and opening a limited dip through to the 1.1850 area and stronger bids.
Overnight News
USD:
Top Republican says Senate GOP could be open to smaller infrastructure restructure bill – DJ
JPMorgan says USD Rout is temporary sees US exceptionalism – BBG
Dispute over Trump tax change threatens infrastructure bill – FT
Fauci predicts J&J vaccine returning Friday, perhaps with limits, warnings – WSJ
CRYPTO:
Bitcoin falls 15% over night, biggest intraday drop since FEB – BBG
USD/CNY:
Both Countries will cooperate to tackle climate change – BBG
CNY:
China says it has no desire to replace USD with Digital Yuan – BBG
EUR:
Italy risks missing recovery plan deadline due to EU concerns, – RTRs
CAD:
Canada budget proposes sales tax for online platform – BBG
NZD:
NZ Services industry returned to expansion in March – BBG
AUD:
RBA Housing discussion possible, but big shift in stance unlikely – DJ
USD/RUB:
US Warns of consequences if Kremlin Critic Navalny dies – BBG
JPY:
Osaka will seek state of emergency, Governor says – Asahi
Japan virus surge raises worries over new Tokyo emergency – Asahi
RUB:
Ruble drops as much as 0.7%on worries over more US sanctions – BBG
Today’s Data
JPY Exports YoY (MAR) A 16.1% | C 11.6% | P -4.5%
JPY Trade balance (MAR) A 663.7b | C 490.0b | P 215.9b
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A 90.3% | P 22.9%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (FEB) (P) A -1.3% | P -2.1%
1315 CAD Housing Starts (MAR) A | C 250.0k | P 245.9k
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening Quietly holding around the 1.3780 area slipping slightly below on the move into Tokyo to just below, slow drift through to the 1.3750 area before holding quietly before dropping quickly in the grey hours and testing through to the 1.3715 low of the day. London opening saw a solid rise, a steady rise to the 1.3800 area, a steady range around the level testing down to the 1.3780 and rising through to the 1.3815 area through into the NYK session and another steady rise through to the close where the market tested the 1.3850 level on a spike to the close.
- JPY: A light drift through into the Tokyo session to set the low of the day pushing towards the 108.60 level before bouncing quickly through to the 108.95 level, the run through to the grey hours saw a light drift through to the 108.80 level with the London opening seeing a quick push to just short of the 109.00 area and the high of the day, slow drift through to the 108.75 area and a short range period around the level, and a quick test into the NYK session before dipping back again and then a long ranged run to the close around the 108.80.
- AUD: Quiet range around the 0.7750-55 area into the Tokyo session before dropping off through to the 0.7730 area before meeting bids into the 0.7725 level and a slow push to the 0.7745 level dipping for the move into the grey hour and recovering slowly through the early morning pushing through to the 0.7760 area before running out of space and slowly retreating through into the NYK session to hold the 0.7730 through to the close.
- EUR: Quiet run through the opening 1.1970 into the Tokyo session with a quick move higher to test the 1.1975 and then back through to the 1.1955 area and a slow range around the area holding the 1.1950 level slowly rising late into the session to recover the opening level for the move into the grey hour, London opening saw the market quickly pushing off the 1.1960 level and pushing through the morning to test to the 1.1995 area for the move into the NYK sellers and a slow drift to the 1.1980 area for the close.
Premier Results
NZD Business NZ PMI (MAR) A 63.6 | P 53.4
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (MAR) A 25.6% | C 25.0% | P 35.0%
CNY GDP QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 1.5% | P 2.6%
CNY GDP YoY (Q1) A 18.3% | C 19.0% | P 6.5%
CNY Chinese GDP YTD YoY (Q1) A 18.3% | P 2.3%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (MAR) A 14.1% | C 17.2% | P 35.1%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (MAR) A 24.5% | P 35.1%
CNY Chinese Unemployment Rate A 5.3% | P 5.5%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CHF PPI MoM (MAR) A 0.6% | P 0.3%
GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
EUR Core CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 1.1%
EUR CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.9% | C 0.9% | P 0.2%
EUR CPI YoY (MAR) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 0.9%
EUR Trade Balance (FEB) A 17.7b | P 6.3b | R 11.0b
EUR Eurogroup Meetings
USD Building Permits (MAR) A 1.766m | C 1.750m | P 1.720m
USD Building Permits MoM (MAR) A 2.7% | P -8.8%
USD Housing Starts MoM (MAR) A 19.4% | P -10.3% | R -11.3%
USD Housing Starts (MAR) A 1.739m | C 1.613m | P 1.421m | R 1.457m
CAD Foreign Securities Purchases (FEB) A 8.52b | P 1.27b | R 1.11b
CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (FEB) A -0.7% | C -0.4% | P 4.0%
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (APR) (P) A 79.7 | C 83.6 | P 79.7
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (APR) (P) A 86.5 | C 89.6 | P 84.9
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 439 | P 430 | R 432
Best Regards
Andy
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