Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.083 | EURUSD 1.20362 | AUDUSD 0.77244 | NZDUSD 0.71701 | USDCAD 1.2612 | USDCHF 0.91572 | GBPUSD 1.39384 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20435 | 1.20269
USDJPY 108.154 | 107.878
GBPUSD 1.39492 | 1.39217
USDCHF 0.91640 | 0.91539
AUDUSD 0.77360 | 0.77105
NZDUSD 0.71862 | 0.71630
USDCAD 1.26157 | 1.25995
EURCHF 1.10250 | 1.10182
EURGBP 0.86389 | 0.86282
EURJPY 130.134 | 129.855
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet session with the market opening around the 1.3935 level and a limited push to the 1.3950 area on a couple of occasions before dipping and slowly slipping through to the grey hour testing the 1.3920 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.4000 area with offers into the 1.4010 area and possible option plays around the level before breaking higher and triggering weak stops and possible option players caught short, 1.4050 then sees light congestion and stronger on a move through to the 1.4100 area with topside then open to stronger gains. downside bids light through to the 1.3900 level with limited congestion starting to build in the area before weak stops on a dip through the figure level and opening a move through to the 1.3840 area and stronger congestion appears.
- JPY: Holding around the 108.10 area through into the Tokyo fix dipping to the 107.90 level bouncing and then attempting again before slowly regaining the 108.00 area for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 108. 00 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 108.80 level and increasing into the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: As with the others a limited push through the 0.7735 area and then a slow drift atter the Tokyo fix to slip through to the 0.7710 for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there maybe some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: Drifting a little through into the Tokyo session before moving to the 1.2045 area for the high of the session before drifting off from the second attempt and then dropping through to the 1.2025 area for the grey hour, Topside offers start to increase on a move through the 1.2080 area before weak stops appear around the 1.2120 level and given the perchance of some banks to call a move to fade the Euro above the 1.2000 possibly starting to cause pain as option hedges go could see a squeeze higher and into the Feb ranges before seeing offers coming in above the 1.2150 level and increasing. Downside bids light through to the 1.1980 level with weak stops on a breakthrough to the medium congestive 1.1950 and therefore exposing the stronger bids 1.1900 level through to the 1.1880 and strong stops.
Overnight News
CNY/EUR:
Chinese Tesla rival NIO targets Europe with its smart EVs as it takes a first step towards going global – SMP
JPY:
Japan to declare virus emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo – BBG
Japan’s foreign residents ponder travelling for vaccines – RTR’s
EUR:
EU drafts set of laws to green everything from Trade to energy – BBG
J&J will resume its Europe vaccine rollout after the EU’s regulator says the shot should carry a label – NYT
NZD:
Stats NZ: Prices for transport and housing rise in March 21 quarter – GO6
USD:
Biden to back temporary extension of larger child tax credit – DJ
TRY:
Turkey’s Erdogan fires trade minister Ruhsar Pekcan – RTR’s
Erdogan appoints Mehmet Mus as new Turkey trade minister – RTR’s
Today’s Data
NZD CPI YoY (Q1) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
NZD CPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
AUD Retail Sales (P) A 1.4% | P -0.8%
0700 GBP CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.3% | P 0.1%
0700 GBP CPI YoY (MAR) A | C 0.8% | P 0.4%
0700 GBP PPI Input MoM (MAR) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
0905 GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
1130 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1330 CAD Core CPI YoY (MAR) A | P 1.2%
1330 CAD Core CPI MoM (MAR) A | P 0.3%
1330 CAD CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.6% | P 0.5%
1500 CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
1500 CAD BoC Rate Statement
1500 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.975m | P -5.889m
1600 CAD BoC Press Conference
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly and gently edging higher to push to the 1.3995 level before dipping through to the 1.3975 area, Tokyo fix over with the market started a second run for the 1.4000 level pushing through to the 1.4008 area before stumbling and unable to follow through with the break and dipping back, the run to the grey hour saw the market testing back and forth in a tight range and finally into the London opening give up completely to run steadily throughout the day drifting in steady waves to the 1.3925 low and a slow run to the close.
- JPY: Quiet into the Tokyo session and a limited dip to the low of the day just through the 108.00 area and a steady recovery through to the 108.30 level before settling back to the 108.15 opening level for the move to the grey hour, pushing off the 108.20 level the market pushed through to the high to test the 108.55 area for the move into the London session, the move through the London session testing back to the 108.30 level and the 108.50 area the market moved through into the NYK session and a dip through to hold just above the 108.00 level into the London close and then range around the 108.10 area for the close.
- AUD: Moving steadily through into the Tokyo session pushing from the 0.7755 level testing to the 0.7800 before holding quietly in the area for the grey hour, early London pushed through to the 0.7815 area before falling quickly back as the official opening selling through to the 0.7770 before ranging around the area through to the end of the London session and then a quick dip through to the 0.7730 area and then slowly drifting to the lows of the day around the 0.7710 as the bear trap was sprung on the USD sellers.
- EUR: Opening quietly around the 1.2035 level saw the market rising steadily through to late in the session pressing the 1.2050 area and a quick move through to push towards the 1.2075 area before drifting back for the move into the grey hour, early buying saw the London opening testing the 1.2080 level before a slow steady drift through the day to push through into NYK testing the 1.2025 level and a slow run to the close.
Premier Results
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | 3.85% | P 3.85%
JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index A -0.3% | P -1.7% | R -1.0%
GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (FEB) A 4.5% | C 4.8% | P 4.8%
GBP Claimant Count Change (MAR) A 10.1k | P 86.6k
GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (FEB) A -73k | C -150k | P -147k
GBP Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 4.9% | C 5.1% | P 5.1%
EUR German PPI MoM (MAR) A 0.9% | C 0.6% | P 0.7%
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A 0.436m | P -3.608m
Best Regards
Andy
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