Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.053 | EURUSD 1.20354 | AUDUSD 0.77526 | NZDUSD 0.72089 | USDCAD 1.24969 | USDCHF 0.91695 | GBPUSD 1.39295 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20470 | 1.20322
USDJPY 108.140 | 107.921
GBPUSD 1.39493 | 1.39256
USDCHF 0.91699 | 0.91591
AUDUSD 0.77646 | 0.77415
NZDUSD 0.72139 | 0.71867
USDCAD 1.25126 | 1.2490
EURCHF 1.10481 | 1.10317
EURGBP 0.86457 | 0.86326
EURJPY 130.122 | 129.879
For Today
- GBP: A light drift to the 1.3925 level before starting a slow rise through to the 1.3950 level and the high for the session with the market then dipping from that high to the 1.3935 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 1.4000 area with offers into the 1.4010 area and possible option plays around the level before breaking higher and triggering weak stops and possible option players caught short, 1.4050 then sees light congestion and stronger on a move through to the 1.4100 area with topside then open to stronger gains. downside bids light through to the 1.3900 level with limited congestion starting to build in the area before weak stops on a dip through the figure level and opening a move through to the 1.3840 area and stronger congestion appears.
- JPY: Opening quietly for the move into the Tokyo session testing lightly to the 108.00 level before bouncing off the area to push through to the 108.15 level in a limited range before settling into a tight range around the 108.00 level with a minor dip to the 107.95 area, Downside bids into the 108. 00 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 108.80 level and increasing into the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: A very quiet move through the session continually moving off the 0.7750 area until late in the session, the high in early Tokyo was made with a push through to the 0.7765 area to range around the 0.7755-60 for the most part before moving towards the grey hour testing through the 0.7750 level, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there maybe some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: opening around the 1.2032 area and a widening range into the Tokyo session with a light push through to the 1.2048 level for the high of the day before falling off the level in a more direct manner through to the 1.2032 opening levels again, Topside offers start to increase on a move through the 1.2080 area before weak stops appear around the 1.2120 level and given the perchance of some banks to call a move to fade the Euro above the 1.2000 possibly starting to cause pain as option hedges go could see a squeeze higher and into the Feb ranges before seeing offers coming in above the 1.2150 level and increasing. Downside bids light through to the 1.1980 level with weak stops on a breakthrough to the medium congestive 1.1950 and therefore exposing the stronger bids 1.1900 level through to the 1.1880 and strong stops.
Overnight News
USD:
Senate Republicans take step to revive debt ceiling brawls with White House – WPT
USD/CNY:
Momentum grows in Congress for legislation confronting China – BBG
USD/AUD:
Lockheed Martin and Thales Australia teaming agreement – CO1
CNY:
JPMorgan: The best days for Yuan are probably behind us – BBG
ILS:
Sirens warn of possible rocket attacks near Israel as Iranian back terrorism builds in Yemen – USNews
Today’s Data
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A 17 | P 14
1100 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (APR) A | C 2 | P -5
1245 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (APR) A | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
1245 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A | P 0.25%
1245 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
1245 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (APR)
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 617k | P 576k
1330 CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (MAR) A | C 1.4% | P 1.9%
1500 USD Existing Home sales (MAR) A | C 6.19m | P 6.22m
1500 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 0.8% | P -6.6%
1530 EUR German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quieter day with the market holding around the 1.3935 level through into the Tokyo session before running towards the 1.3950 area before running into resistance, a drift through to just before the grey hour saw the market rising again towards the highs before early Europeans sold the market off through to the 1.3910 level only to bounce on the London opening back to towards the highs again, London then held for a few hours around the 1.3925 area before heading into the NYK opening testing through the 1.3900 level to touch just above the 1.3885 area and a steady push to the 1.3940 and then holding quietly around the 1.3930 area.
- JPY: Early trading into the Tokyo session saw the market holding around the 108.10 area and then dipping quickly for the Tokyo fix to test through to the 107.90 level with a little choppy movement then between the two levels before holding around the 108.00 level, the move into the grey hour saw a slow rise to the opening levels with the London opening seeing the market quickly to the 108.30 area before drifting through to the NYK session holding the 108.00 level again, a little push through to the 108.20 in early NYK was slowly eroded in a drift to the close just below the opening levels.
- AUD: A quiet run through into the Tokyo session slowly testing to the 0.7735 level with a light run from those highs down through to the 0.7705 area for the move into the grey hour, London ranged quietly with a minor dip on the move to the 0.7700 level for the London opening before ranging again around the 0.7715 level, moving into the NYK session saw a limited dip below 0.7710 area before starting a slow tight channelled move through to the 0.7765 highs of the day before slowly ranging to the close just above the 0.7750 area.
- EUR: A quiet Asian session rising in early Tokyo to push above the 1.2040 level to make the high around the move through into the run to the grey hour saw the market penetrate the 1.2030 level for the first time and running through to the London opening saw the market testing to the 1.2005 level and then range around the level through to deep into the NYK session before lifting off the 1.2000 lows and trading steadily through to the opening levels again through to the close.
Premier Results
NZD CPI YoY (Q1) A 1.5% | C 1.4% | P 1.4%
NZD CPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.8% | C 0.7% | P 0.5%
AUD Retail Sales (P) A 1.4% | P -0.8%
GBP CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.1%
GBP CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.7% | C 0.8% | P 0.4%
GBP PPI Input MoM (MAR) A 1.3% | C 0.6% | P 0.6% | R 0.9%
GBP MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
CAD Core CPI YoY (MAR) A 1.4% | P 1.2%
CAD Core CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.3% | P 0.3%
CAD CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.5%
CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report
CAD BoC Rate Statement
CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 0.594m | C -2.975m | P -5.889m
CAD BoC Press Conference
Best Regards
Andy
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