Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.078 | EURUSD 1.20158 | AUDUSD 0.77094 | NZDUSD 0.71583 | USDCAD 1.25037 | USDCHF 0.9169 | GBPUSD 1.38411 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20264 | 1.2013
USDJPY 108.005 | 107.803
GBPUSD 1.38659 | 1.38347
USDCHF 0.91716 | 0.91656
AUDUSD 0.77348 | 0.76981
NZDUSD 0.71770 | 0.71517
USDCAD 1.25080 | 1.24726
EURCHF 1.10241 | 1.10179
EURGBP 0.86841 | 0.86723
EURJPY 129.802 | 129.597
For Today
- GBP: Quiet move through into the Tokyo session and then slowly lifting from the 1.3835 opening area to push through to the 1.3860-65 area for a quiet range in the area through to the grey hour, downside congestion into the 1.3800 level with that congestion lightening on a push through the 1.3780 area and then increasing through the 1.3760 area as the bids deepen from 1.3720-00 level weak stops likely on a move through the 1.3700 area however, late Mar and early Apr has shown that bids are likely to lurk just below the area with breakout stops likely to be below the 1.3650 level. Topside offers light through the 1.3900 level and open quickly for the moment to the 1.4000 level before stronger offers start to appear around the level, sentimental levels may have light offers however, they are still building having come off so quickly leaving the market filling gaps still.
- JPY: Opening around the 107.95 level and running through to the Tokyo opening pushing the 108.00 ;level before dipping for the fix testing quickly through the 107.90 area and limited range around the level, a strong push for the 107.80 area before rising slowly to push back to the opening level before drifting to the grey hours just above the 107.90 area, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 108.80 level and increasing into the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: Westpac comments helped the Oz move off the 0.7700 low holding that level through into the Tokyo session and then run steadily higher pushing through into the grey hour testing the 0.7735 level before drifting into the grey hour, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: A light start to the day and pushing into the Tokyo session pushing through into the 1.2025 level from the 1.2014 area lows holding quietly through to the grey hour just above the 1.2020, Topside offers start to increase on a move through the 1.2080 area before weak stops appear around the 1.2120 level and given the perchance of some banks to call a move to fade the Euro above the 1.2000 possibly starting to cause pain as option hedges go could see a squeeze higher and into the Feb ranges before seeing offers coming in above the 1.2150 level and increasing. Downside bids light through to the 1.1980 level with weak stops on a breakthrough to the medium congestive 1.1950 and therefore exposing the stronger bids 1.1900 level through to the 1.1880 and strong stops.
Overnight News
CNY:
TSMC founder Morris Chang says China’s semiconductor industry still five years behind despite decades of subsidies – SMP
JPY:
Nishimura: want events to be held without spectators – BBG
Nishimura: Strongly Urge residents to stay at home – BBG
Japan seeks virus emergency from April 25 through May 11 – BBG
Japan recommends virus emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo – BBG
Japan’s PM’s push for higher minimum wage faces uphill battle amid pandemic – RTRs
AUD:
Victorian man catches Covid in Perth Quarantine – SMH
Ozzie 3yr bonds pressured as Westpac revises yield forecast – BBG
NZD/GBP:
Jacinda Ardern savaged as British Parliament declares treatment of Uighurs genocide – SYH
CNY/GBP:
Chinese embassy in UK says, urges UK to immediately right its wrong moves in response to UK parliament’s motion on Xinjiang – RTRs
GBP:
UK reports 32 deaths from clots after AstraZeneca jabs as Covid becomes the UK’s Third leading cause of death last month – AFP
Today’s Data
JPY National Core CPI YoY (MAR) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.4%
JPY National CPI MoM A 0.2% | P 0.1%
JPY Services PMI (P) A 48.3 | P 48.3
0700 GBP Core Retail sales YoY (MAR) A | C 4.5% | P -1.1%
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 1.9% | P 2.4%
0700 GBP Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A | C 3.5% | P -3.7%
0700 GBP Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 1.5% | P 2.1%
0830 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (APR) (P) A | C 65.8 | P 66.6
0830 EUR German Services PMI (APR) (P) A | C 50.8 | P 51.5
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (APR) (P) A | C 62.0 | P 62.5
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (APR) (P) A | C 52.8 | P 53.2
0900 EUR Services PMI (APR) (P) A | C 49.1 | P 49.6
0930 GBP Composite PMI (APR) (P) A | P 56.4
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI (P) A | P 58.9
0930 GBP Services PMI (P) A | P 56.3
0930 EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (APR) (P) A | C 60.5 | P 59.1
1445 USD Markit Composite PMI (APR) (P) A | P 59.7
1445 USD Services PMI (APR) (P) A | C 61.9 | P 60.4
1500 USD New Home Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 12.0% | P -18.2%
1500 USD New Home Sales (MAR) A | C 886k | P 775k
1530 EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 432
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3925 level and after a quiet move through into the Tokyo session, pushing gradually through to the 1.3950 level into midsession, a steady drift back then through to the grey hour and a light rise through to the London opening before starting a test through the 1.3900 level bouncing a little off the 1.3890 level rising a little but not convincing anyone, dropping into the NYK session saw a similar move through to the 1.3870 level quickly then a slower push through to the 1.3825 level before finding a base extending the low through a little before recovering into the 1.3840 for the close.
- JPY: More or less ranging around the 108.05 area with a limited move through to either extremity, drifting from the opening level 108.05 and then pushing through to the 108.15 level and quickly dipping back to the 107.95 area before stabilizing and ranging around the 108.00 level for the grey hour, dipping to the 107.80 area the market recovered through to the 108.05, from London onwards the market kept pretty much above the 108.00 level pushing into the NYK session probing the 108.20 level for weak stops but unable to find very much in the area the market dipped back and after a brief drift ran a second time to push through to extend the high for the London close and a drift from there through to the 107.95 area for the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7750 area and then slowly pushing through into the Tokyo session testing through to the 0.7765 area and the high for the day, ranging through the next few hours but unable to break the high the market drifted into the grey hour testing the 0.7740 level before moving back towards the high for the move into the London opening and holding then in the current range through to just before the NYK opening where the market eventually pushes through the 0.7740 area and triggers some weak selling through to the 0.7710 area, London close saw some late selling and once the market moved to late in the session testing through to the 0.7690 level for the low and a quiet range to back above the figure for the close.
- EUR: Ranging lightly through into the Tokyo session around the 1.2035 opening area before slowly rising through to just above the 1.2045 area before drifting through midsession and into the grey hour testing the 1.2030 level, Early buyers in Europe saw the market above the 1.2045 level however, London was unable to follow through at that point and the market dipped back to break the 1.2030 level in early morning before again running for the highs holding through to the NYK session above the 1.2050 level for the ECB decision and a lightly dovish commentary very little changed from previous sending the market through to the 1.2000 level for the London close and then settling into a tight drift range to just below the figure holding just above the 1.1990 level before moving to 1.2015 area for the close.
Premier Results
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A 17 | P 14
GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (APR) A -8 | C 2 | P -5
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (APR) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (APR) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 547k | C 617k | P 576k | R 586k
CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (MAR) A 1.1% | C 1.4% | P 1.9%
USD Existing Home sales (MAR) A 6.01m | C 6.19m | P 6.22m | R 6.24m
USD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) A -3.7% | C 0.8% | P -6.6% | R -6.3%
EUR German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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