Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 108.734 | EURUSD 1.2092 | AUDUSD 0.77673 | NZDUSD 0.72065 | USDCAD 1.24009 | USDCHF 0.91362 | GBPUSD 1.39081 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.20939 | 1.20741

USDJPY                108.946 | 108.689

GBPUSD              1.39101 | 1.38738

USDCHF              0.91517 | 0.91383

AUDUSD              0.77754 | 0.77253

NZDUSD              0.72115 | 0.71893

USDCAD              1.24184 | 1.24018

EURCHF               1.10573 | 1.1044

EURGBP              0.87048 | 0.86884

EURJPY                131.582 | 131.423

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.3912 area the market immediately drop to the 1.3900 level and then slowly pushed through into the Tokyo session testing back to the 1.3905 area, once the fix was over the market slid slowly lower through the session pushing to the 1.3875 level before finding some support for the move through to the grey hour holding the area. Congestion through to the 1.3840-50 area and then likely to find stronger support into the 1.3800 level with light congestion through the level mixed with weak stops before further support appears around the 1.3750 area and increasing bids into 1.3700 level with strong stops likely through to the 1.3680-60 area. Topside bids light through the congestive 1.3900 area with weak stops limited, with some increasing offers through the 1.3950 area and that increase likely to double for the 1.4000 level and strong stops likely on a strong move through the level.
  • JPY: Opening around the 108.70 level and slowly rising to the Tokyo fix just above the 108.75 and a little run through to the 108.95 area once the fix was over and a slow drift to leave the USDJPY trading around the 108.85 level through into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
  • AUD: Opening quietly around the 0.7770 area before dropping off on the Oz numbers initially testing the 0.7750 area but then running for a second quick move to the 0.7725 area before finding some support for the move through to the grey hour recovering to the 0.7740 area, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
  • EUR: Light attempts early in the session to push the 1.2095 area but unable to push much yesterdays highs before heading into the Tokyo fix falling back to the 1.2075 area and a limited range basing on that level in tight movement, Topside offers start to increase on a move through the 1.2080 area before weak stops appear around the 1.2120 level and given the perchance of some banks to call a move to fade the Euro above the 1.2000 possibly starting to cause pain as option hedges go could see a squeeze higher and into the Feb ranges before seeing offers coming in above the 1.2150 level and increasing. Downside bids light through to the 1.1980 level with weak stops on a breakthrough to the medium congestive 1.1950 and therefore exposing the stronger bids 1.1900 level through to the 1.1880 and strong stops.

 

 

Overnight News

USD:

Biden plans to ask congress to pay for $1.8t in new spending – AXS

AUD/LME:

Iron ore rises to record amid surging steel demand – AFR

CNY/AUD:

Australia is sick, needs to take medicine – China’s Foreign Ministry – Global times

CNY:

Beijing population to drop in 2022 as new-born hits decade low – PDA

AUD:

Weekly Payroll jobs and wages in Australia, payroll decreased 1.8% and wages decreased 3.1%

 

Today’s Data

JPY         Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A 5.2% | C 4.7% | P -1.5%

AUD       CPI YoY (Q1) A 1.1% | C 1.4% | P 0.9%

AUD       CPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%

AUD       Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.3% | C 0.5% | P 0.4%

0700      EUR       GfK German Consumer Climate (MAY) A | C -3.5% | P -6.2

1330      USD       Goods Trade Balance (MAR) A | P -87.07b

1330      USD       Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (MAR) A | P 1.2%

1330      CAD       Core Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | C 3.7% | P -1.2%

1330      CAD       Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | C 4.0% | P -1.1%

1500      EUR       ECB’s Lagarde Speaks

1530      USD       Crude Oil Inventories A | C 0.659m | P 0.594m

1900      USD       FOMC Statement

1900      USD       FED interest Rate Decision

1930      USD       FOMC Press Conference

2345      NZD       Trade Balance MoM (MAR) A | P 181m

2345      NZD       Trade Balance YoY (MAR) A | P 2,360m

 

 

Premier Results

JPY         BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

JPY         BoJ Outlook Report YoY

JPY         BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%

JPY         BoJ Press Conference

USD       S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. YoY (FEB) A 11.9% | C 11.7% | P 11.1%

USD       CB Consumer Confidence (APR) A 121.7 | C 113.0 | P 109.0

CAD       BoC Gov Macklem Speaks

USD       API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | C 0.375m | P 0.436m

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.