Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.602 | EURUSD 1.21253 | AUDUSD 0.77922 | NZDUSD 0.72611 | USDCAD 1.23137 | USDCHF 0.90934 | GBPUSD 1.39402 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21500 | 1.21221
USDJPY 108.671 | 108.437
GBPUSD 1.39759 | 1.39357
USDCHF 0.90991 | 0.90814
AUDUSD 0.78180 | 0.77822
NZDUSD 0.72867 | 0.72486
USDCAD 1.23210 | 1.22877
EURCHF 1.10395 | 1.10253
EURGBP 0.87036 | 0.8692
EURJPY 131.839 | 131.610
For Today
- GBP: Pushing gradually from the opening 1.3940 area to test to the Tokyo opening just above the 1.3950 level and increasing the push through to the 1.3975 into midsession before running out of space and dipping back steadily to the opening level and holding through to the grey hour just above the opening area, Topside offers into the 1.4000 area and likely weak stops on a push through the 1.4020 level however, light congestion around the sentimental levels 1.4050, 1.4100 area likely to be a little stronger with long time trend line in the area then opening to weak sentimental to the 1.4200 strong offers with break out stops likely through the 1.4250 area.
- JPY: Slow slide through to the 108.45 area to base for a short period before rising steadily to push back through the 108.60 area on a run to just above the 108.65 area for the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: Early trading saw the Oz benefitting from the weaker USD to push from the 0.7790 area and pushing slowly to the 0.7818 level for the high before reversing as USD buyers moved in for the weekend rolls testing back to the opening and testing to the 0.7785 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: Rising from close to yesterdays highs to push steadily into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.2130 level again, the quiet push ebbed at the 1.2150 area and the market slipped steadily back to the opening levels around the 1.2125 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there maybe some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.
Overnight News
CNY:
China wants more Steel at home as industry faces overhaul – BBG
China-Africa trade leaps in first quarter on post pandemic rebound – SMP
USD:
Manchin says price tag on Biden’s plan is uncomfortable – BBG
Fed sees less risk, but still some time before tapering – JPM’s Feroli
Biden says US will stand up to unfair trade practices like subsidies for state owned enterprises and theft of US tech and Intellectual Properties – CNN
Biden: He told Chinese Pres. Xi the US will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo Pacific, as it does with NATO in Europe – CNN
Biden: He made clear to Russian Pres. Putin that the US does not seek escalation, but their actions have consequences – CNN
AUD:
Frydenberg aims to spend big to fix jobs and deficit – AFR
Today’s Data
NZD Trade Balance MoM (MAR) A 33m | P 181m | R 201m
NZD Trade Balance YoY (MAR) A 1,690m | P 2,360m
JPY Holiday Japan – Showa Day
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (APR) A -2.0 | P -4.1
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (APR) (P) A | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
0800 EUR Spanish HICP YoY (APR) A | C 1.8% | P 1.2%
0855 EUR German Unemployment Change (APR) A | C -10k | P -8k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Rate (APR) A | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (APR) (P) A | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
1330 USD GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C 6.1% | P 4.3%
1330 USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1) A | C 2.5% | P 1.9%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 549k | P 547k
1500 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 5.0% | P -10.6%
1600 USD FOMC Member Quaries Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening on the Asian highs around the 1.3910 level dipping back to the figure level and holding through into the Tokyo session and once the fix was over dipping steadily through to the 1.3875 area to form a base through to the grey hour when further selling pushed through to breach the 1.3865 area for the London opening, London ranged around the 1.3875 for the most part extending the low for the day however, as the NYK moved in the buyers appeared and a steady rise through to the 1.3915 level for a quiet range through to Bidens 100 day speech with continuation of the Trump foreign policies and the 1.8t boost under pressure with some thinking further spending not seen as that beneficial and a little disturbing, this released more USD selling for the market to test the 1.3950 level to hold to the close around the 1.3940 area.
- JPY: A light dip from the opening to test the 108.70 area before slowly recovering and moving into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 108.90 level for a dull tight range through into the grey hour, the market came back from Tokyo lunch and steadily pushed through to the London opening making the high of the day testing towards the 109.10 area and then drifting back to hold the 108.90 level through to the NYK session with some choppy movement, a quick stab to the 109.00 level again and then dipping from the figure level through to the lows of the day and ranging around the 108.60 level through to the close.
- AUD: A quiet opening holding around the 0.7770 area and unable to push the 0.7775 with any conviction and once into the Tokyo session testing through the Fix to the 0.7755 level to hold briefly before dropping quickly through to the low of the day holding the 0.7725 and a steady rise through to the 0.7740 area and then more or less holding through to the grey hour, minor dip then back to the 0.7740-50 range through to the NYK session in possible the quietest Oz session London has seen outside of a bank holiday, NYK saw buyers and a push back to the opening levels a minor spike lower to the 0.7740 before bouncing quickly to the 0.7800 level before holding just below for the close.
- EUR: Pretty much the same as the others with USD’s doing slightly better through to the NYK session, Opening around the 1.2090 area then drifting through the session before London came in buying it from the lows in the high 1.2050’s and then holding quietly around the 1.2070 area through to the NYK session and a quick run to the 1.2100 before dipping a little and then after a spike lower ran quickly higher to the 1.2135 area high before settling a little for the close.
Premier Results
JPY Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A 5.2% | C 4.7% | P -1.5%
AUD CPI YoY (Q1) A 1.1% | C 1.4% | P 0.9%
AUD CPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 0.9% | P 0.9%
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.3% | C 0.5% | P 0.4%
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (MAY) A -8.8 | C -3.5% | P -6.2 | R -6.1
USD Goods Trade Balance (MAR) A -90.59b | P -87.07b
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (MAR) A 0.6% | P 1.2% | R 1.4%
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 4.8% | C 3.7% | P -1.2%
CAD Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 4.8% | C 4.0% | P -1.1%
EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A 0.090m | C 0.659m | P 0.594m
USD FOMC Statement
USD FED interest Rate Decision
USD FOMC Press Conference
Best Regards
Andy
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