Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.336 | EURUSD 1.2020 | AUDUSD 0.77115 | NZDUSD 0.71607 | USDCAD 1.22908 | USDCHF 0.91315 | GBPUSD 1.38153 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20357 | 1.20173
USDJPY 109.591 | 109.246
GBPUSD 1.38357 | 1.38106
USDCHF 0.91399 | 0.91263
AUDUSD 0.77327 | 0.77134
NZDUSD 0.71845 | 0.71629
USDCAD 1.22977 | 1.22702
EURCHF 1.09880 | 1.09752
EURGBP 0.87146 | 0.86955
EURJPY 131.733 | 131.442
For Today
- GBP: Opening unchanged after a very quiet premarket run with 30mins before the first trade in the market occurred, slowly rising into the Tokyo session pushing the 1.3825 level before dipping to the 1.3810 level and restarting the rise through this time to 1.3835 before drifting to hold into the bank holiday London session, Topside offers through the 1.3900 level light through to the 1.3940 area where offers are likely to be a little stronger with further offers likely to be into the 1.4000 area with stops likely through the 1.4020 area and opening a stronger move higher, downside bids strong into the 1.3800 with congestion likely to continue through the level and while there may be some stops that congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.3750 level, light bids through the level but increasing again into the 1.3700 level with congestion then continuing through the level.
- JPY: Opening unchanged and moving into the Tokyo bank holiday session holding the 109.30 area and eventually pushing through to the 109.40 and slowly rising through to the grey hour to test the 109.60 level, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Opening a little higher around the 0.7720 area and then ranging around the level through to the Tokyo session testing lightly through to the 0.7730 area before dipping back for the opening levels into the grey hour, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2030 level and a light rise through to the 1.2035 area for the high before slipping through to the 1.2018 area for the move into the grey hour and filling the limited gap on the charts, , Topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there maybe some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.
Overnight News
CNY/INR:
China deletes social media posts mocking India amid backlash – BBG
AUD:
Morrison’s Liberals claim victory in Australian state election – BBG
Australia Central bank to keep stimulus even as economy – BBG
Australia reviewing China’s Darwin port ownership – DefMin Dutton says – BBG
JPY/CNY:
Beijing gets warning on Diaoyu dispute – SMP
USD:
Yellen says doesn’t see Biden plan stoking US Inflation – BBG
GBP:
PM Johnson set to unveil reform of planning and state aid – FT
Today’s Data
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (APR) A 61.7 | P 59.9
GBP Bank Holiday
JPY Holiday Constitution Day
0700 EUR German Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A | C 3.0% | P 1.2%
0815 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (APR) A | C 59.0 | P 56.9
0830 CHF Procure ch PMI (APR) A | C 66.0 | P 66.3
0855 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (APR) A | C 66.4 | P 66.4
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (APR) A | C 63.3 | P 63.3
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (APR) A | P 60.6
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (APR) A | P 59.6
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (APR) A | C 65.0 | P 64.7
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet move through the Asian session with a limited run from the 1.3940 area to test a little above the 1.3955 area before rifting back for the move to the grey hour, grey hour selling saw the market dipping through to the 1.3900 level for the move through into the London session and quietly basing on the 1.3900 level to the NYK session opening, dropping quickly through to the 1.3870 level and then a slow move through to the London close dipping quickly through to the 1.3805 area and a quiet run to the close.
- JPY: For the run through to the NYK session the market held around the 108.85 areas, rising from the opening 108.90 area to push the 109.05 in early Tokyo before drifting back to make the low around the108.70 area before ranging through to the NYK opening and strong buying of USD’s through to the 109.35 level and then a long quiet run to the close trading around that level into the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7765 level trading quietly through to the 0.7785 area before ranging around the 0.7775 level for the move through to the London session with a slow drift through to late in the session and dipping away into the London close to push the 0.7705 area, a slow drift through towards the close saw the market penetrating the 0.7700 level before recovering into the close to the 0.7710 area.
- EUR: Early highs into the Tokyo session saw the 1.2125 area highs before slowly drifting through to the grey hour, London sold slowly through to the NYK session before the market dropped through the 1.2080 level triggering a few weak stops to quickly push into the London session drifting from the 1.2035 level to close just below the 1.2020 area.
Premier Results
JPY Jobs/applications ratio (MAR) A 1.10 | C 1.09 | P 1.09
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (APR) A -0.2% | C -0.2% | P -0.1%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy (MAR) (P) A -0.4% | P 0.2%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (MAR) (P) A 2.2% | C -2.0% | P -1.3%
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (APR) A 53.8 | P 55.3
CNY Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 51.1 | C 51.7 | P 51.9
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 54.9 | P 56.3
AUD PPI YoY (Q1) A 0.2% | P -0.1%
AUD PPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.4% | P 0.5%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (MAR) A 0.4% | P 0.2%
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 51.9 | C 50.8 | P 50.6
GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (APR) A 7.1% | C 5.0% | P 5.7%
GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (APR) A 2.1% | P -0.2% | R -0.3%
CHF Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A 22.6% | P -6.3% | R -6.6%
CHF KOF Leading Indications (APR) A 134.0 | C 119.5 | P 117.8 | R 118.0
EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P 0.0%
CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
EUR German GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A -3.3% | C -3.6% | P -2.7% | R -2.3%
EUR German GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -1.7% | C -1.5% | P 0.3% | R 0.5%
EUR CPI YoY (APR) (P) A 1.6% | C 1.6% | P 1.3%
EUR GDP YoY (P) A -1.8% | P -4.9%
EUR GDP QoQ (P) A -0.6% | C -0.8% | P -0.7%
EUR Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 8.1% | C 8.3% | P 8.3% | R 8.2%
USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (MAR) A 1.8% | C 1.8% | P 1.4%
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P 0.1%
USD Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q1) A 0.9% | C 0.7% | P 0.7%
USD PCE Price Index YoY (MAR) A 2.3 | P 1.6 | R 1.4
USD PCE Price Index MoM (MAR) A 0.5% | P 0.2%
USD Personal Spending MoM (MAR) A 4.2% | C 4.1% | P -1.0%
CAD GDP MoM (FEB) A 0.4% | C 0.5% | P 0.7%
CAD RMPI MoM (MAR) A 2.3% | P 6.6%
USD Chicago PMI (APR) A 72.1 | C 65.3 | P 66.3
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (APR) A 82.7 | P 79.7
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (APR) A 88.3 | C 87.4 | P 86.5
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 440 | P 439
Best Regards
Andy
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