Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.291 | EURUSD 1.20135 | AUDUSD 0.7710 | NZDUSD 0.71402 | USDCAD 1.2307 | USDCHF 0.91338 | GBPUSD 1.38867 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20266 | 1.20064
USDJPY 109.376 | 109.195
GBPUSD 1.39148 | 1.38862
USDCHF 0.91428 | 0.91318
AUDUSD 0.77380 | 0.77077
NZDUSD 0.71769 | 0.71460
USDCAD 1.23105 | 1.22847
EURCHF 1.09790 | 1.0969
EURGBP 0.86551 | 0.86417
EURJPY 131.453 | 131.298
For Today
- GBP: Quiet opening and a few hours before starting a steady side from the 1.3885 level to steadily push through the 1.3915 level before holding through to the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 1.3940 area where offers are likely to be a little stronger with further offers likely to be into the 1.4000 area with stops likely through the 1.4020 area and opening a stronger move higher, downside bids strong into the 1.3800 with congestion likely to continue through the level and while there may be some stops that congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.3750 level, light bids through the level but increasing again into the 1.3700 level with congestion then continuing through the level.
- JPY: Opening a little higher then dipping back from the 109.38 level to fill the gap and then ranged around the 109.30 area for a slow rise to the high again through to deep into the session before dropping quickly back to the 109.20 level in the biggest move for the pair in a bank holiday session, the market slowly recovered towards the 109.30 level for the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Quiet move through into the Bank Holiday Tokyo session holding the 0.7710 opening level and then a slow climb through to the grey hour testing towards the 0.7740 area. Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: As with the others a slow rise once into the Tokyo session pushing through to the 1.2025 area for the move into the grey hour from the low 1.2010 area. Topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there may be some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.
Overnight News
EUR:
ECB’s Silent yet profound shift shows up on Bund yields – BBG
USD:
Yellen clarifies inflation remark, sees no need for Fed to hike
Kashkari says FED doesn’t want to cut off recovery prematurely – RTRs
Yellen’s Comments on inflation spart confusion, clarification as White house tries to navigate economic pressures – WPT
US interest rates may have to rise if economy heats up – Yellen
NZD:
RBNZ’s Bascand: greater risk of house price correction than before
Bascand: Long-term drivers for house prices softening
Bascand: Not a red alert on housing correction risk
Unemployment declines as underutilisation rises – GO6
Today’s Data
NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
NZD Employment Change QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 0.2% | P 0.6%
NZD Unemployment Rate (Q1) A 4.7% | C 4.9% | P 4.9%
JPY Holiday Children’s Day
CNY Holiday Labour Day
NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
AUD Building Approvals MoM (MAR) A 17.4% | C 3.0% | P 20.1%
0730 CHF CPI MoM (APR) A | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
0800 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A | P -59.1k
0855 EUR German Services PMI (APR) A | C 50.1 | P 50.1
0900 EUR Markit Services PMI (APR) A | C 50.3 | P 50.3
0900 EUR Markit PMI Composite (APR) A | C 53.7 | P 53.7
1145 EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
1315 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (APR) A | C 810k | P 517k
1445 USD Service PMI (APR) A | C 63.1 | P 63.1
1445 USD Markit PMI Composite (APR) A | C 62.2 | P 62.2
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (APR) A | P 57.2
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (APR) A | C 64.3 | P 63.7
1500 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.346m | P 0.090m
1600 USD FOMC Rosengren Speech
1700 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
2330 CAD BoC’s Governor Macklem Speech
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3910 level and made the highs for the day just short of the 1.3915 level before starting a steady decline through the session testing into the 1.3865 area for the move into the grey hour, early buyers saw a move through to the 1.3890 area before London sold for the opening testing the 1.3850 area, eventually bouncing and then pushing the 1.3890 area several times before drifting off for the move into the NYK session pushing the 1.3835 area before slowly rising through to late in the session to range around the 1.3890 area to the close.
- JPY: Choppy opening around the 109.10 area and holding the 109.00 level through into the Tokyo session, a steady tight channelled rise through to the London opening testing the 109.50 level and then holding through to pre-NYK dropping quickly into the opening to test the lows once more before rising and holding the 109.30 to the close.
- AUD: Opening on its highs and slowly drifting from the 0.7765 area and testing through to the 0.7740 level to hold through to the London session with a limited spike after the no change decision, London selling put a quick move through to the 0.7710 area and ranged through to the NYK session around the 0.7710-20 area before dipping again to the 0.7700 level bouncing on the NYK opening and then slowly drifting back and dipping through to the 0.7675 area for the low of the day, before slowly moving through to the close testing back above the 77 cents level.
- EUR: From the early highs around the 1.2065 level and a steady decline through the Asian session to test the 1.2035 into the grey hour, London opening dipped through the 1.2010 area bounced and then continuing again to test the 1.2000 level before starting a slow recovery to the 1.2030, the run to the London close saw some movement with the market touching the 1.2035 level and quickly dipping to the 1.2000 area again before returning to the 1.2020 for the run to the close after the Daly commentary.
Premier Results
JPY Holiday Greenery Day
CNY Labour Day
AUD Trade Balance (MAR) A 5.574b | C 8.00b | P 7.529b
AUD RBA Rate Decision (MAY) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
CHF SECO Consumer Climate (Q2) A -7.1 | P -30 | R -14.2
GBP Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 60.9 | C 60.7 | P 60.7
USD Trade Balance (MAR) A -74.4b | C -74.50b | P -71.10b | R -70.5b
CAD Building Permits MoM (MAR) A 5.7% | C 2.0% | P 2.1% | R 3.1%
CAD Trade Balance (MAR) A -1.14b | C 0.70b | P 1.04b | R 1.42b
USD Factory Orders MoM (MAR) A 1.1% | C 1.3% | P -0.8% | R -0.5%
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A -7.688m | P 4.319m
Best Regards
Andy
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