Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.191 | EURUSD 1.20054 | AUDUSD 0.77473 | NZDUSD 0.72063 | USDCAD 1.22657 | USDCHF 0.91307 | GBPUSD 1.39084 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20118 | 1.19933
USDJPY 109.430 | 109.128
GBPUSD 1.39184 | 1.38863
USDCHF 0.91431 | 0.91316
AUDUSD 0.77579 | 0.77013
NZDUSD 0.72291 | 0.71854
USDCAD 1.22879 | 1.22571
EURCHF 1.09711 | 1.09611
EURGBP 0.86465 | 0.86291
EURJPY 131.321 | 131.069
For Today
- GBP: A quiet opening and after making the market above the 1.3910 level fell back into midsession to test the 1.3885 level before holding just below the 1.3900 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 1.3940 area where offers are likely to be a little stronger with further offers likely to be into the 1.4000 area with stops likely through the 1.4020 area and opening a stronger move higher, downside bids strong into the 1.3800 with congestion likely to continue through the level and while there may be some stops that congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.3750 level, light bids through the level but increasing again into the 1.3700 level with congestion then continuing through the level.
- JPY: Opening around the 109.20 level in choppy action the market moved through into the Tokyo session lifting of the 109.17 low to start a tight channelled move through to the 109.40 area for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Opening just short of the 0.7750 level and testing the level through into the Tokyo session before extending through to the 0.7758 area before economic dialogue between China and Australia came to a halt and the market dropped quickly back to the 77 cents level to bounce and hold around the 0.7725 area into the grey hour, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: Very quiet again for the Euro with the market slowly pushing through the 1.2010 level before dipping with the AUD selling to test the 1.1995 area and hold the 1.2000 through to the grey hour, Topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there may be some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.
Overnight News
TWD:
Taiwan shores up allies as China threat looms – AFR
NZD:
RBNZ’s Bascand says rates need to stay low for quite a long time – BBG
CNY/AUD:
China suspends economic dialogue with Australia amid tensions – BBG
USD:
Rosengren: There’s still a lot of slack in US labour markets – BBG
Rosengren: Temporary inflation rise, won’t persist into 2022 – BBG
Rosengren: Conditions for financial stability concerns may grow – BBG
Rosengren: Must be vigilant about too much market ebullience – BBG
Rosengren: Been no discussion so far on how to conduct taper – BBG
Rosengren: We have a long way to go to heal harm of Pandemic – BBG
Rosengren: I’m expecting very strong economic recovery – BBG
Rosengren: Premature to talk about tapering
Rosengren: We need little more time to weigh economic progress – BBG
Today’s Data
CAD BoC’s Governor Macklem Speech
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (P) A 7.0 | P -2.0
0700 EUR German Factory Orders MoM (MAR) A | C 1.7% | P 1.2%
0830 EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (APR) A | P 47.5
0900 EUR ECB Economic Bullentin
0930 GBP Composite PMI (APR) A | C 60.0 | P 56.4
0930 GBP Services PMI (APR) A | C 60.1 | P 56.3
1000 AUD RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks
1000 EUR Retail Sales MoM (MAR) AS | C 1.5% | P 3.0%
1130 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
1200 GBP BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (MAY) A | C 9 | P 9
1200 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (MAY) A | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
1200 GBP BoE QE Total (MAY) A | C 875b | P 875b
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 540k | P 553k
1330 USD Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q1) A | C 4.3% | P -4.2%
1330 USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C -0.8% | P 6.0%
1400 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1415 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
1600 EUR German BuBa Mauderer
1800 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1800 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
2305 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A little choppy through the London session otherwise contained through the day, opening around the 1.3885 area before heading through steadily to test above the 1.3910 area in early Tokyo, a drift from there to the grey hour testing back to the opening levels and dipping through the 1.3880 level for the low of the day before bouncing and heading through to test the 1.3925 level for the high, the move into the NYK session saw the market starting to base around the 1.3900 level and the market ran out just above the figure level.
- JPY: Another bank holiday and another limited range through the day, a little choppy on the opening the market eased back to fill a narrow gap before rising from the 109.30 through into Tokyo pushing only lightly higher, midsession saw the USDJPY sending the market through to the 109.20 area and spending several hours through into the grey hour pushing through to the high of the day testing towards the 109.50 level before dipping off into early London and holding around the 1.0930 through to the NYK session, dipping lightly for the NYK opening to the low of the day just beyond the 109.15 area struggling as far as 109.30 for the London close before drifting back to hold the 109.20 through to the close.
- AUD: A steady rise throughout the day for the close just off the highs saw the market opening initially around the 0.7710 rising through to the 0.7740 into the early part of Tokyo and drifting for the move to the grey hours making the low in the grey hour pushing towards the 0.7700 level before recovering and slowly pushing back to the highs, NYK saw the high of the day around the 0.7755 area to range to the close 0.7740-50 area.
- EUR: A very quiet session for the day, rising a little into midsession in Tokyo to test the 1.2026 before drifting through into the grey hour testing to the lows of the day below the 1.1990, a slow rise into the pre NYK market before dipping back and basing through to the London close around the 1.2000 and moving to the NYK close testing the 1.2006.
Premier Results
NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
NZD Employment Change QoQ (Q1) A 0.6% | C 0.2% | P 0.6%
NZD Unemployment Rate (Q1) A 4.7% | C 4.9% | P 4.9%
JPY Holiday Children’s Day
CNY Holiday Labour Day
NZD RBNZ Gov. Orr Speaks
AUD Building Approvals MoM (MAR) A 17.4% | C 3.0% | P 20.1%
CHF CPI MoM (APR) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A -59.0k | P -59.1k
EUR German Services PMI (APR) A 49.9 | C 50.1 | P 50.1
EUR Markit Services PMI (APR) A 50.5 | C 50.3 | P 50.3
EUR Markit PMI Composite (APR) A 53.8 | C 53.7 | P 53.7
EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (APR) A 742k | C 810k | P 517k | R 565k
USD Service PMI (APR) A 64.7 | C 63.1 | P 63.1
USD Markit PMI Composite (APR) A 63.5 | C 62.2 | P 62.2
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (APR) A 58.8 | P 57.2
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 62.7 | C 64.3 | P 63.7
EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -7.990m | C -2.346m | P 0.090m
USD FOMC Rosengren Speech
USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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