Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.086 | EURUSD 1.20647 | AUDUSD 0.77821 | NZDUSD 0.72236 | USDCAD 1.21493 | USDCHF 0.90749 | GBPUSD 1.38927 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.20697 | 1.20586
USDJPY 109.201 | 108942
GBPUSD 1.39118 | 1.38892
USDCHF 0.90810 | 0.90718
AUDUSD 0.77919 | 0.77735
NZDUSD 0.72436 | 0.72268
USDCAD 1.21669 | 1.21485
EURCHF 1.09541 | 1.09468
EURGBP 0.86861 | 0.86753
EURJPY 131.714 | 131.198
For Today
- GBP: A light rise through the session opening around the 1.3895 area and dipping initially through the 1.3890 area and through into the Tokyo session rising through to the 1.3912 high and holding in the area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers through to the 1.3940 area where offers are likely to be a little stronger with further offers likely to be into the 1.4000 area with stops likely through the 1.4020 area and opening a stronger move higher, downside bids strong into the 1.3800 with congestion likely to continue through the level and while there may be some stops that congestion is likely to continue through to the 1.3750 level, light bids through the level but increasing again into the 1.3700 level with congestion then continuing through the level.
- JPY: Drifting lower to the 109.00 level from the opening saw the market dipping quickly through into the low 108.90’s before bouncing on the actual fix and rising back through the 109.10 opening level and testing through to the 109.20 level, there was a further push for the high before dropping back off to hold around the opening level through into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7780 area and struggled for direction through the session, one attempt to push through the 0.7790 area before dipping off and holding through into the grey hour holding the lows, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: Very quiet range through the Asian session with a light push through to the 1.2070 area before drifting back to the 1.2060 level, the move through to the grey hours holding just off the highs, Topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there may be some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.
Overnight News
AUD:
RBA sees economy recovering strongly, helping AUD higher – BBG
CNY:
China 2021 consumer inflation to be lower than 3% target – BBG
FED warns of Peril for asset prices as investors gorge on risk – BBG
G10:
Most hawkish G10 Central Bankers still see significant risks – BBG
Today’s Data
JPY Services PMI (APR) A 49.5 | P 48.3
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
CNY Caixin Services PMI (APR) A 56.3 | P 54.3
CNY Exports YoY (APR) A 32.3 | C 24.1% | P 30.6%
CNY Imports YoY (APR) A 43.1% | C 42.5% | P 38.1%
CNY Trade Balance USD (APR) A 42.85b | C 28.1b | P 13.8b
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (APR) A | C 3.3% | P 3.4%
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR) A | C 3.3% | P 3.4%
0700 EUR German Industrial production MoM (MAR) A | C 2.3% | P -1.6%
0700 EUR German Trade Balance (MAR) A | C 19.5b | P 19.1b
0930 GBP Construction PMI (APR) A | C 62.3 | P 61.7
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (APR) A | C 0.1% | P -0.1%
1330 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY (APR) A | C -0.4% | P 4.2%
1330 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (APR) A | C 978k | P 916k
1330 USD Participation Rate (APR) A | P 61.5%
1330 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (APR) A | C 893k | P 780k
1330 USD Unemployment Rate (APR) A | C 5.8% | P 6.0%
1330 CAD Employment Change (APR) A | C -175.0k | P 303.1k
1330 CAD Unemployment Rate (APR) A | C 7.8% | P 7.5%
1500 CAD Ivey PMI (APR) A | C 60.5 | P 72.9
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 438
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Another day with the market testing towards the 1.3950 level, opening around the 1.3900 level and struggling through into the Tokyo session extending the high through to the 1.3915 before dipping back and ranging through to midsession above the figure level, the market eventually broke lower through to the 1.3885 area before starting a slow steady climb through the grey hour and into the London session again testing above the 1.3910 level and holding above the 1.3900 level for the most part the move into the NYK session saw the market dip to the low just below the 1.3860 area before bouncing quickly back and testing the 1.3940 as UK-French diplomacy hits the news in a way not seen for 200yrs, once the immediate issue was dealt with and the Coast Guard dinghy’s moved from the Channel Island area and Macron finished is tirade the market settled back to the 1.3890 level for the a quiet long run to the close.
- JPY: Choppy opening and then a light run through to the Tokyo session around the 109.20 level, the market slowly started to rise from that point pushing through steadily to the 109.40 areas before eventually falling steadily back into the grey hour and the London session followed through to the 109.10 area, NYK opening saw the market pushing again to the 109.40 area dipping back just as quickly and testing steadily lower through the day to test the figure level before reversing and finding a little spike through to the 109.20 area.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7745 area and the range started to widen through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 0.7758 area and before dropping off making a low around the 0.7742 area, the move into the midsession saw the market dropping off quickly to test the 77 cents level before starting a slow steady rise through to the grey hour pushing the highs again and then a limited range through the London session, NYK opening eventually pushed steadily higher testing slowly through the 0.7775 level pausing for a few hours, a little push to the 0.7788 area before holding above the 0.7780 area to the close.
- EUR: A widening range set the low for the day into midsession in Tokyo dipping through the 1.2000 area to test the 1.1993 level before slowly recovering through to the grey hour moving back to the opening 1.2005 area and early London pushing Steadily higher through to the NYK session testing through the 1.2070 area before drifting for the London close and moving slowly higher for the close.
Premier Results
CAD BoC’s Governor Macklem Speech
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (P) A 7.0 | P -2.0
EUR German Factory Orders MoM (MAR) A 3.0% | C 1.7% | P 1.2% | R 1.4%
EUR IHS Markit Construction PMI (APR) A 46.2 | P 47.5
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
GBP Composite PMI (APR) A 60.7 | C 60.0 | P 56.4
GBP Services PMI (APR) A 61.0 | C 60.1 | P 56.3
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks
EUR Retail Sales MoM (MAR) A 2.7% | C 1.5% | P 3.0% | R 4.2%
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
GBP BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (MAY) A 9 | C 9 | P 9
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (MAY) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBP BoE QE Total (MAY) A 875b | C 875b | P 875b
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 498k | C 540k | P 553k | R 590k
USD Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q1) A 5.4% | C 4.3% | P -4.2% | R -3.8%
USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q1) (P) A -0.3% | C -0.8% | P 6.0% | R 5.6%
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
EUR German BuBa Mauderer
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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